As the conflict between Kazakhstan and Israel intensifies, many people are pondering the question of whether the Palestinians can peacefully establish an independent state without Israel, or if Israel is destroyed in the first Middle East war
As a creator in the field of history, it is natural to often hear the phrase "history cannot be assumed", but there is also a saying that "the past does not forget the teacher of the future", and to a certain extent, a hypothetical discussion of history helps mankind to think and sum up lessons and lessons.
Moreover, in the first Middle East war, the Arab League came close to destroying Israel.
The Palestinians' national liberation struggle is highly dependent on the help of the neighboring Arab countries, in other words, the fate of Palestine is largely determined by the neighboring Arab countries. By understanding the attitudes of these countries, we can know the answer to the question at the beginning.
Israeli-Palestinian conflictBefore World War I, the Arabian Peninsula was largely ruled by the Ottoman Empire. In order to defeat the Ottoman Empire, the British sent people to contact the Hashemite family in Arabia and encourage them to revolt.
The Hashemite family controlled a narrow strip of land along the Red Sea coast, and although under the Ottoman Empire, as descendants of the Islamic prophet Muhammad, they had a lofty dream – to unify the Arab world.
The Hashemites made a condition that Britain promise to help the Arabs establish an independent state, which would roughly encompass the entire Arabian Peninsula.
The two sides bargained, and at first the British were reluctant to agree, and because of the tension of the war, they were forced to vaguely express "recognition of the independence of the Arab states within the definite territory".
There were no formal negotiations between the two sides, and no agreement was signed, except that McMahon wrote a few letters on behalf of the British** to the old King Ali of the Hashemite family. This gave the British room to operate,After promising the Arabs, he secretly demarcated his sphere of influence with France, and assigned Lebanon, Syria and other regions to France.
With the help of the British, Prince Faisal of the House of Hashemite led a rebel army into Damascus and established the Kingdom of Syria. But France then sent troops to drive it out. At this time, there was a power vacuum in the Jordanian region controlled by Faisal.
Historically, Jordan and Palestine have long belonged to the same region. With close political and economic ties, cultural traditions, and unrestricted movement of residents, the Arabs of this region are true brothers.
After the British occupied Palestine, they did not dare to occupy Jordan again for fear of provoking the Arab revolt, and only sent some administrative ** to help the local tribes govern. However, some tribes do not obey British governance, and the British want the Arabs to obey, but it is inconvenient to come forward in person, so they can only find ** people.
At this time, Faisal's elder brother, Prince Abdullah, led a force to take control of Jordan without much effort. The British readily recognized Abdullah's rule and made Transjordan a protectorate. Soon after, British rule in Iraq was resisted and Faisal was appointed king of Iraq.
Together with Ali the Elder's Kingdom of the Hejaz, the British helped the Hashemite family establish three kingdoms. Although there is a big gap with the promise of that year, it can also be regarded as an explanation for the Hashemite family. However, Britain occupied Palestine and was reluctant to let go, and did not hesitate to use the Jordan River as the boundary to carve out Transjordan, which laid a hidden danger for the later Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
If Jordan and Palestine had merged into one country, ruled by Abdullah, and controlled by Britain behind the scenes, there would have been no such rotten things as the partition of Palestine and the establishment of the state of Israel. Or Britain could simply divide a small piece of the Jews to establish a state, and let the remaining Arabs merge with Jordan into a single state, which could also be exchanged for a peaceful situation.
In this way, at least in terms of territorial area, the Arabs will not feel that they are at a loss, and the relatively enlightened Abdullah is acceptable. After all, Abdullah's Transjordan was still willing to accept Jews after Britain restricted Jews from entering Palestine. Not to mention the Jews, who in 1937 made a Peel partition plan, which only allocated them 20% of their land from Palestine, which they could accept.
The British, for their own sake, refused to give up Palestine. Later, a large number of Jews poured into Palestine, which intensified the contradictions. After the end of World War II, Britain could not control the situation at all, so it had no choice but to hand over the Palestinian issue to the United Nations.
By this time, Jews had made up one-third of the total population of Palestine. The Western powers have long since abandoned the logic of occupying the mountain as kings and have begun to emphasize benevolence, righteousness and morality.
From a humanitarian point of view, the Jews objectively exist in Palestine, and it is impossible to drive them into the sea. The experience of the Jews in World War II made them realize the need to establish an independent state of their own self-governing people, rather than being ruled by other peoples. But at the same time, the Arabs are reluctant to accept the presence of a foreign race in the land of Palestine.
As a result, the Palestinian issue has become a complex issue involving historical contradictions and religious contradictions, and there are also games between the United States, Britain, the Soviet Union and other major powers.
Jewish immigrants In fact, Abdullah has also been fighting for union with Palestine from the British.
In 1921, when Winston Churchill, then British Colonial Secretary, visited Jerusalem, Abdullah immediately rushed to meet him and proposed a merger. To express the importance, he said it three times in a row. Britain did not yet want to see a strong Arab state, euphemistically refused.
Later, the contradictions between the Jews and the Arabs became more and more serious, and Abdullah suggested to the British:If the Jews agreed to accept his rule over Palestine, they would be granted a high degree of autonomy and would be guaranteed legal civil rights.
Abdullah also took action, allowing Jews to settle in Transjordan and buy land. In 1927, when Jews built a power plant in Transjordan, Abdullah himself attended the groundbreaking ceremony.
In doing so, Abdullah naturally wanted to annex Palestine and strengthen himself in order to further fulfill his ideal of unifying the Arab world. Another important reason is that Jerusalem, the holiest site of Islam, could have a crucial appeal to the Arabs.
Not only did he co-opt Jews, but he was also constantly involved in internal Palestinian affairs. He will recruit some influential Palestinians to serve in ** and use them as a bridge to influence Palestinian public opinion. He offered asylum to Palestinian nationalists in the event of a conflict with the British Mandate.
Abdullah has already made Palestine his own territory, but the British are there, and it is inconvenient for him to intervene directly. He was well aware that the struggle of the Arabs against the British was a serious mistake of strategy, and that as long as the interests of the British were harmed, it would be difficult to succeed in the circumstances of the time, no matter how just they were demanded.
He argues that although there are far fewer Jews than Arabs, it is unrealistic to try to stop Jews by force. Because the Jews have international aid, and the Arabs don't. A long refusal to negotiate with the Jews did not do him any good.
So Abdullah's plan was: Palestine was united with Transjordan, and the Jews would be self-governing under the unified Arab leadership.
In retrospect, Abdullah's views were not only pragmatic but also far-sighted. As we have analysed earlier, this would be the best solution to the Palestinian question by taking into account the interests of all parties to the greatest extent.
In 1937, the British introduced the Peel partition plan, in which the Jews occupied 20%, the Arabs occupied 70%, and the remaining 10% remained under British administration. The Arabs generally rejected the proposal, and only Abdullah publicly declared its acceptance. He again put forward his proposal, but the partition could not be realized due to the opposition of the Arabs.
During World War II, national liberation movements flourished in the Middle East. British rule was generally opposed by the Arab people, and had to go behind the scenes to defend its own interests through the best people. The most trustworthy person in Britain is Abdullah.
Abdullah seized the opportunity to propose a "Greater Syria" scenarioIt is proposed that Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Transjordan and parts of the Arabian Peninsula, including Palestine, be integrated.
Britain supported the plan, but it was strongly opposed by the Arab world. Britain turned to support the creation of a coalition of Arab countries.
In March 1945, the League of Arab States was born, and the initial member states included seven countries, including Egypt, Transjordan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Iraq.
But this is only a loose alliance, nominally aimed at unifying the Arab world, but in reality each with different agendas. Forcibly put these people into a table, it is inevitable that there will be trouble.
As mentioned earlier, every time Abdullah proposed a solution to Palestine, there were people who came out to oppose itWho is against him?
The first to oppose it was Saudi Arabia. In fact, the land of Palestine is separated from Saudi Arabia by a country, and the issue of ownership has little to do with him, Saudi Arabia just does not want to see the Hashemite family strong.
Although the Abdullah brothers became kings of Transjordania and Iraq respectively with British support, the kingdom of Hejaz, which his father had founded on the Red Sea coast, was destroyed by the Saudis. Mecca, the birthplace of the Hashemite family and the holiest site of Islam, was also occupied by the Saudis.
The two sides are feuding, and although they have not yet torn their faces, if Abdullah establishes a unified Greater Syria in the north, it will inevitably threaten Saudi rule next.
Another opponent was King Farouk of Egypt. Britain was the suzerainty of Egypt, which inevitably caused Egypt to rebel. In 1942, the British demanded that Farouk replace the pro-German prime minister with a majority leader in order to change the Egyptian people's ** towards the British, but Farouk refused. The British directly sent tanks to surround the palace and gave an ultimatum.
Although Farouk was forced to agree, the incident made him feel very ashamed and disgusted with Britain even more. Abdullah was politically close to Britain and was seen as a tool of the British. Moreover, the British presence in Transjordan was also seen as a threat to the Arabs. So Farouk also hated Abdullah.
In addition, as the descendant of the Egyptian pharaohs, Farouk also dreamed of building a "Greater Egypt" that stretched from the Euphrates to the Nile. During World War II, Egypt made so much money that even its overlord, Britain, owed him money. Moreover, Egypt has the largest population among Arab countries and has the strength to unify the Arab world.
Abdullah (first from right) Farouk (second from right) In particular, after the Arab League was established in Cairo, Farouk's ideas became stronger, which clashed with Abdullah's ideal of a "Greater Syria", and the two became political rivals. In fact, Abdullah was so disgusted with Farouk that he didn't even think of him as an Arab.
Opponents also include Syria. Syria was France's sphere of influence, and Britain could not intervene. Many of the Arab nationalists who fought against the British sought refuge in Syria after being suppressed. Slowly, Syria became the most vocal country in the Arab world for national independence.
Nationalists in Syria opposed British rule, opposed to annexation by Abdullah, and demanded the creation of an independent Arab state. After independence, Syria's first ** Kuatli was protected by Egypt and became more politically close to Egypt.
There are contradictions not only among Arab countries, but also among the Palestinians. Although the Palestinians have never established an independent state, they have developed some "elite" families in major towns. The most famous of these are the Khalidi, Nusaiba, Nassasi, and Husseini.
HosseiniAfter the United Nations partition plan was introduced in 1947, the Arab League organized a volunteer force, the Arab Liberation Army, to fight in Palestine. Husseini wanted to fight for control of the force, but the Arab coalition ultimately chose Kawuji, a combat hero during the uprising, because he had much more military experience.
In fact, Husseini's relationship with Kaouji is incompatible. Both were wanted for participating in the anti-British uprising, and both went into exile in Germany to join Hitler. In order to compete for favor, Husseini constantly excluded Kaouji, and even falsely accused Germany that Kaouji was a spy sent by the British.
Unconvinced, al-Husseini, who had lost control of the forces, organized the Arab Salvation Army in Palestine. The two forces fought separately and were completely unable to cooperate, and were crushed by each of them by Israel.
The big war is imminent, and the Arab countries are also beginning to make their own small calculations. Transjordan wanted to occupy as much Palestinian territory as possible, and had the tacit approval of the United Kingdom. Transjordan also maintained contact with the Jews, and a few days before the war, Mrs. Meir, the founder of Israel, secretly traveled to Jordan to meet with Abdullah.
Although the two sides did not reach a non-aggression agreement, they also formed a tacit understanding that after Transjordan occupied a certain territory, it would cease war with Israel. So after the war began, the Transjordan army advanced more than 10 miles east of Tel Aviv, the capital of Israel, but stopped the offensive.
The Egyptian army saw that Transjordan was seizing Jerusalem, and its troops divided into two routes, all the way to Tel Aviv and all the way to Jerusalem, to prevent Transjordan's southward movement to seize territory.
Yasser Arafat, who had been part of the guerrillas and later became the leader of the PLO, recalled that the Egyptian army disarmed the Palestinian guerrillas as soon as they came. "At this time, I understood that we had been betrayed by these Arab countries," he said. ”
Arafat's Egyptian army also advanced more than 30 kilometers south of Tel Aviv and did not advance northward, but began to seize some important points in the southern Negev district.
Later, the United States and the Soviet Union manipulated the United Nations to demand a ceasefire, giving Israel, which was about to collapse, a respite. During the two ceasefires, Israel was actively preparing, and Arab countries were still making trouble.
Abdullah made no secret of Egypt's promise to annex the territories he had occupied to Transjordan. In order to stop him, Egypt supported Husseini to establish "all Palestine**" Abdullah also competed with each other, and won over the family who opposed Husseini to support him.
Transjordan fell out with Egypt completely, and Egypt was later counterattacked by Israeli troops and turned to its allies for help, but Transjordan ignored it. Eventually, Egypt was defeated and forced to sign an armistice with Israel, and other countries had to follow suit.
100 years ago, China's Arab League seemed to be united, but in fact it was scattered. They helped Palestine in the war, not to help them establish a state, but to drive out the Jews so that they could divide Palestine.
Assuming that there were no Jews, the best outcome for Palestine would have been like China a hundred years ago, with warlords reigning over the mountains and fighting for territory for many years, with Arab countries acting as their behind-the-scenes manipulators.
This is still considered from the level of the Arab world, and if we add the factor of the later great power game, the situation will be even more chaotic. Today's Arab League looks like a harmonious mess on the surface, and this is because there is a common enemy of Israel, and they have to be together.
Assuming that there is no Israel, after the withdrawal of the British, there is no doubt that Palestine will be directly divided among several surrounding Arab countries. Arab countries may even crusade against each other because of conflicting interests.
Due to the special historical and religious background of the Middle East, coupled with the abundant oil resources, this possibility is not low after the intervention of major powers.
In this case, the Arab world will have to wait for a once-in-a-century genius to achieve unity.