WhenInternationalAs the situation changes, the relationship of interests becomes the basis for grievances and hatred between countries, and unexpected variables will follow. However, no matter what the variables, people do not forgetInternationalA logic in the relationship: profit first. In order to protect their own interests, once hostile countries may shake hands and make peace, and once close allies may become warlike. At this critical juncture, an important event attracted attention: Russia's sudden overtures to the United States and Europe.
On December 19, Putin issued a statement saying that the United States and Europe are concerned about the development of relations between Russia and Europe, while the United States is trying to scare Europe through Russia. However, Putin stressed that Russia has never intended to enter into a conflict with Europe and does not intend to do so. Earlier, Putin also said that Russia does not intend to go to war with NATO and does not want to spoil relations with NATO. In his opinion, it is not in Russia's interests to go to war with NATO. In addition, Putin stressed Russia's readiness to improve relations with the United States. In the case of Finland's decision to join NATO and the United States clearly supporting Ukraine, Putin chose to show goodwill to the United States and Europe. So, what exactly is the reason for Putin's move?There are at least three possibilities:
1.Putin tried to unleash smoke bombs: the moment,Middle EastThe situation continues to be volatile, Iran, the HouthisArmedAs well as pro-IraqArmedare all challenging the deterrent capabilities of the United States. In response to this situation, the US-led coalition chose to goMiddle East, but HouthiArmedAnd did not give in. In addition,Israeli-Palestinian conflictThe escalation has forced the United States to distract itself from supporting Israel, and as a result, aid to Ukraine has also decreased. Russia may see now as an opportunity to expand its advantage on the battlefield. Therefore, courting the United States and Europe at this point in time can bring more benefits to Russia.
2.Putin wants to find a new way out for Russia: Russia has received severe sanctions from the United States and Europe for its conflict with Ukraine. While Russia's economy has weathered the onslaught of sanctions to some extent, its economic model, which relies heavily on energy exports, has notEuropean Unionof a complete rupture. As Putin said, Russia does not exclude the use of the dollar, but a hard ** with the dollar will lead to corresponding economic and social consequences, and may even damage the sovereignty of the country. All in all, the reason why Russia proposed"De-dollarization"In the final analysis, the plan is to safeguard the interests of the country. In Putin's view, the US-led NATO has always been the one that threatens Russia, and it is NATO that is trying to weaken Russia, and it is NATO that is creating problems. Therefore, if the United States and Europe adjust their strategies and take the initiative to win over Russia, then Russia will face a choice.
3.withUnited States**Related:TrumpDecide to run for the ** position, and Biden will face an even tougher challenge. Opinion polls in the United States show that Biden's approval rating is not satisfactory, whileTrumpReturn toThe White HouseThe likelihood is not low either. Russia undoubtedly hopesTrumpElected, because it will mean that US aid to Ukraine will be reduced. The mode of getting along with each other is variable, and it depends on confrontation or cooperationInternationalchanges in the situation and the balance of power of the main players. Whether it is the United States or Russia, its foreign strategy is always aimed at safeguarding its own national interests. This is a prime example of:TrumpA different attitude from Biden. InTrumpDominationThe White HouseDuring this period, the country of Russia profited a lot. And as soon as Biden took office, the United States issued a stern warning to Russia. As a strongman who has controlled Russia for a long time, Putin knows very well that the United States is unreliable, and he also knows that Russia's future can only be fought for on his own. Therefore, Putin's overtures to the United States at this time are likely to be just a measure of his delay. But how will the world change?What will happen in the future?The real variables will start in 2024, and we will wait and seeTrumpand Biden's contest results.
InInternationalIn a relationship, whether it is war or peace, it ultimately comes down to the game of interests between countries. Whether it is a struggle between countries or a power struggle within a country, interests are always the root cause that drives everything. WhenInternationalWhen the situation changes, countries have to adjust their foreign policies and strategies to protect their core interests.
For Russia, there are complex considerations behind the overtures. While the United States and Europe are worried about the development of relations between Russia and Europe, Russia also needs to deal with itMiddle EastThe situation is volatile. TrappedMiddle EastDuring the war, the United States had to disperse its forces to help Israel, which led to a decrease in support for Ukraine. This gives Russia the opportunity to extend its superiority on the battlefield. As a result, overtures became a strategic choice. In addition, Russia, although it has experienced severe sanctions, does not exclude itEuropean Unionbecause Russia is dependent on energy exports. However, a hard ** with the dollar can have economic and social consequences, and even damage national sovereignty. Therefore, Russia is inclined to"De-dollarization"to safeguard the interests of the country. In addition, Russia also needs to be consideredUnited States**impact. TrumpIt is in Russia's interest that victory will reduce aid to Ukraine. Therefore, Putin's overtures may be aimed at obtaining more benefits and finding a new way out.
Finally,InternationalThe choice of the strategic model in the relationship depends on:Internationalsituation and the balance of power between the major powers. Whether it is the United States or Russia, safeguarding its own interests has always been the starting point of its foreign strategy. For example,Trumpand Biden's foreign policy stance is very differentTrumpDuring the reign of Russia, Russia gained a lot of benefits, and after Biden took office, the United States issued a stern warning to Russia. For Putin, who has long held power in Russia, he is clear about the unreliability of the United States and realizes that Russia's future can only be fought for on its own. Therefore, Putin's overtures to the United States may be just a delaying tactic. However, the world will not change in the future, and the real variables will appear in 2024, and we will wait and seeTrumpand the ultimate victor between Biden.