Knowledge explosion training camp
Author Pot wrapped meat under the stars.
Edit Spinach's Starry Sky.
Typesetting Hot pot under the stars.
2023 is coming to an end, and in the last two months,MediaThe plate is completely raised.
Formerly obscure small-cap companies, such as:Zhongguang natural selectionInsai Group(300781), in less than two months, the stock price has doubled or tripled. I don't know how many people have earned enough year-end bonuses with this wave of **?
*: Straight flush, Insai Group (left) Zhongguang Tianxuan (right) as of December 19.
However, this kind of company is still quite a test of the psychological quality of shareholding. Presumably, there are also many shareholders who go in and go out, and the pit that should be hidden has declined.
At the end of the day,Alternate price limitsBehind the progress, there is always a lack of performance support.
1. The short drama is hyped, and the performance is scarce
Judging from the financial report, the main business of Zhongguang Tianxue and Insai Group is not the same, one is for content and the other is for marketing. However, these two unrelated companies have rubbed on the same hot concept -Skit
Since "It's Over!".I'm Surrounded by Beautiful Women" (hereinafter referred to as "It's Over!.")Beauty") came out of the circle, and the game skit was regarded as a sweet spot by the capital market. Later, it was reported that Douyin will be opened**Content PaymentServe. In addition, the AIGC (AI-generated content) at the beginning of the year has also become a positive factor for the short drama industry. Several influences are superimposed, and the ** of the short drama is wave after wave.
So how did Zhongguang Tianxue and Insai Group get into the concept of short dramas?
Zhongguang Tianxue is a content company, including the production and operation of documentaries, variety shows, film and television dramas and other first-class content. And of course, it also includes short drama content.
Since "It's Over!After "Beauty" became popular, Zhongguang Tianxue immediately made a name called "Finished!".I'm surrounded by handsome guys!(hereinafter referred to as "It's Over!.")Handsome guys). At present, the play has completed the script filing declaration. In addition, the company has created a short drama business "fast burning" APP, which is now in the internal testing stage.
*: Interactive Q&A platform - Zhongguang Tianxue.
I have to say that this wave of heat is rubbing quite quickly. But "It's Over!".The biggest explosion point of "Beauty" is the cool plot andImmersiveInteractive content that provides unique emotional value to a specific user. And as a short play, "It's Over!Handsome Guy obviously doesn't have such an immersive effect. The follow-up filming and production of the show will take a certain amount of time, and I don't know how to reproduce "It's Over!" at that timeThe success of "Beauty?".
As for the Insai Group, it is a companyThe whole chain of marketingThe business scope of the service company covers five types of services: strategic consulting, brand management, digital integrated marketing, public relations and communication, and media.
The word short drama cannot be retrieved in the financial report of Insai Group, but on the interactive Q&A platform, Insai Group introduced that the company is a subsidiaryShadow the worldSince the end of last year, it has begun to lay out the short drama business. In addition, the company's self-developed marketing AIGC application model "InsightGPT" can automatically generate short drama scripts and intelligent editing, empowering the short drama business.
After several introductions, Insai Group has become a very competitive new star in the short drama track.
The author did not find the performance of Yingxing Tianxia, but according to Insai Group, "Although the subsidiary Yingxing Tianxia has cut into the short drama track, the company is still considering introducing the past."Proven performanceThe excellent content team complements each other's advantages and integrates with the existing team of the film industry."
*: Interactive Q&A platform - Insai Group.
It's an interesting statement. The introduction of an excellent team whose past performance has been verified, in turn, does it mean that the performance of the film industry itself has not been verified?So now, the business is still that business, and it is attached to the concept of short dramas, how can it be substantially improved?
Judging from the financial report, at present, the short drama business is not reflected in the revenue structure of Zhongguang Tianxue and Insai Group. In other words, the performance contribution of the skit is almostNegligible
*: Straight flush, Insai Group (left) Zhongguang Tianxue (right) 2023 semi-annual report.
Second, the main track is bleak
Back to the main business, Zhongguang Tianxue and Insai Group can be regarded as quite poor.
Zhongguang natural selectionThe major business sectors are documentaries, variety shows, and film and television dramasNot to mention the sunset, these tracks are already quite competitive.
Judging from the data, in recent years, the revenue of Zhongguang Tianxue has plummeted, and the non-net profit has been deducted all year roundLosses
*: Straight Flush - Medium Wide Natural Selection.
In the first three quarters of 2023, Zhongguang Tianxue achieved revenue of 15.6 billion, operating cost 12.5 billion, and the profit margin after deducting costs is only about 30 million. And the management fee alone is as high as 2898180,000 (expense ratio 18.)57%, again state-owned enterprises);Selling expenses 1119510,000. After calculation, there is no profit room at all (non-net profit deducted in the first three quarters - 1767.).660,000).
In contrast,Insai GroupFortunately, at least there were no losses. However, the marketing track where the Insai Group is located,Reduce costs and increase efficiencyIt has become the main theme of downstream customers.
To put it more bluntly, in today's economic environment, how much money do downstream customers still have to engage in marketing and advertising?
Judging from the data, in the first three quarters of 2023, Inca Group achieved revenue of 38.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 259%, basically the same as the previous year. However, the base in 2022 is already low, with a year-on-year decrease of 2221%。
In addition, although this year can barely resist the income, it still can't bear the profits. In the first three quarters, Insai Group achieved a net profit of 2138990,000, down 22% year-on-year. Behind it, the gross profit margin has increased from 43 in the previous year16%, down to 3642%。
In the final analysis, the overall economic recession is the first to be impacted on the marketing track.
Third, competition has intensified and supervision has become stricter
To sum up, the track where Zhongguang Tianxue and Insai Group are located and the performance report card handed over will definitely not get the green eyes of the capital market. Of course, the stock prices of Zhongguang Tianxue and Insai Group are not because of fundamentals.
A friend on the stock bar said that the demon stock speculation, who looks at the performance. That's right. But there has to be some catalyst to increase the authenticity of the good (hu) good.
Obviously, the point that was caught this time was the skit.
But the problem is that in November alone, including "It's Over!".Handsome guy", there are305 partsThe online micro-short drama has been recorded. So, how many audiences are there, and how much time can the audience have, and how many products can be consumed?
And at the same time as squeezing the head between the micro-short dramas,RegulationIt's already on the way.
On December 12, the Cyberspace Administration of China issued a notice to carry out a one-month special action to "clear and rectify the problem of poor information content guidance" from now on. Concentrate on rectifying the problem of short-term dissemination of false information, short-term display of inappropriate behavior, and short-term dissemination of erroneous concepts.
According to reports, the four short dramas produced by the Mimeng short drama team Tingh Island have all been removed from the entire network or banned from streaming.
*: China Xiaokang Network.
Calm down and think about it carefully, short dramas can become a hot spot for speculation in the capital market, probably there is really no good concept.
In the first two years, new energy vehicles and photovoltaics can be speculated, because there are market prospects and real performance contributions to enterprises. And what is there for the skit?
There are currently negligible performance, illusory market prospects, increasingly fierce competitive environment, and increasingly strict industry supervision.
This track, I'm afraid that the future is bleak.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.