Preface:
Can the renminbi replace the U.S. dollar?The question is asked in this way at a discord with the idea of the title.
The meaning of the title is: the underlying logic of the power and yuan mix replacing the oil and dollar mix.
Former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger once said, "Whoever controls food controls humanity."Whoever controls the oil, controls all the countries;Whoever controls the currency controls the global economy. "Food, oil, and the U.S. dollar are the three strategic fulcrums of the United States' hegemony over the world. It can be seen that in the eyes of the strategist Kissinger, currency is very important, so the United States will not easily give up control of the currency, so it will not easily let the renminbi replace the dollar and become the world's dominant currency.
However, no dynasty in history wants to be destroyed, and many safeguard designs have been designed for this, but history has its own steps. Those who follow the general trend of history prosper, and those who go against the general trend of history die.
The process by which the dollar became the "world dollar".
The United States has also made a lot of wise choices in the process of pushing the dollar to the "world dollar". There are at least two of the most widely recognized, one is the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, and the other is through coercion and inducement, and Saudi Arabia reached an "unshakable" ** petrodollar settlement agreement, and the boss of the OPEC organization is Saudi Arabia, and if you get Saudi Arabia, you will basically get the OPEC organization.
To put it bluntly, the United States first engaged in the "gold standard" dollar, and then the "oil standard" dollar.
Why?
The basis of money is credibility, and the credibility of gold and silver is naturally possessed. The state **depends** on the credibility of the currency, and it is dangerous if there is no anchor. The credibility of ** is naturally unstable, ancient and modern China and foreign countries are like this, the Ming Dynasty Zhu Yuanzhang over-issued currency, Chiang Kai-shek national ** indiscriminate currency, Zimbabwe and Venezuela, Germany before World War II are indiscriminately issued currency.
There is no possibility that a currency guaranteed by the credibility of the country alone will become a "world dollar", and the United States has clearly recognized this iron law. Therefore, after the end of World War II, the United States, which was bursting with comprehensive national strength, naturally wanted to replace the old "world dollar" British pound, and whoever controlled the currency controlled the global economy.
The pound is a "silver standard" currency, coupled with the economic hegemony of Britain, before World War II, the position of the pound sterling was unshakeable, and its "credibility" in the international community was naturally very high, and it was not easy for the United States to replace it.
So the United States must find a way to enhance the credibility of the dollar over the pound. At the beginning, the United States used its own advantages, that is, during World War II, through the huge amount of exports and plundering in the war, and tied the dollar to the United States through the "Bretton Woods system". In this way, the credibility of the dollar has naturally increased greatly, and at the same time, the strong military strength of the United States makes the anchor very safe, so many developed countries in the West have accepted the fact that the dollar has become the "world dollar", and the reason why the dollar is called "dollar" comes from this. Later, because of the problems in the operation of the United States, especially the Vietnam War, the deficit of the United States increased significantly, so the United States began to print currency indiscriminately, and some developed countries in Europe began to buy back a large number of dollars from the United States, and the United States could no longer "anchor" the dollar, so in the 70s, the United States abolished the Bretton Woods system in order to keep its own **, and used oil to "anchor" the dollar to this day.
The reason why the United States switched to oil to "pegg" the dollar.
The choice of monetary "anchor" is indeed not an easy thing, with **"anchoring", once there is a problem, the world's current large economy will instantly sweep away the "anchor"**. At present, *** 420,000 yuan 1 kilogram, 9,000 tons in the United States**, worth 3 yuan78 trillion yuan only.
If the country's operation is healthy and stable, it dares to use ** to "anchor" the currency, but many countries are reluctant to do so, because they dare not print their currency indiscriminately.
Why did the United States later "anchor" the dollar with oil, not iron ore or forests, etc.?Because oil is the most "anchored". At that time, oil was the "blood" of industry, and it was used in large quantities and had a wide range of uses, so Kissinger said: "Whoever controls oil controls all countries." In addition, oil is easy to store and transport, and these characteristics make oil a "hard currency" like gold and silver, and the United States has made OPEC only use US dollars when trading oil, so it has tied the US dollar to the "anchor" of oil. Global oil production in 2021 was about 442.3 billion tons, worth about $2.2 trillion at $70 per barrel**.
The United States has always been willing to strike at the limit of actions that challenge the petrodollar combination. For example, the former Iraqi ** Saddam Hussein and Libyan head of state Muammar Gaddafi, the subversion of their regimes and the demise of their lives are greatly related to the challenge of the petrodollar, which is the main reason. Therefore, when the author learned that Shanghai was going to open RMB oil on March 26, 2018, I had a strong sense of crisis, and I knew that my country wanted to use RMB to price oil, which violated one of the three strategic fulcrums of "food, oil, and currency" in the United States.
The reason why electricity replaces oil.
Here, let's first figure out a law of development.
The two hardware elements that underpin human progress are resources and energy. China's internal "south-to-north water diversion" and international imports of iron ore from Australia are all resourcesDomestic "west-to-east gas transmission", "west-to-east power transmission", and international oil imports are all energy sources. Resources are raw materials, energy is the driving force, and the extraction, transportation and processing of resources require a large amount of energy.
Energy is also constantly upgrading with the progress of society. The order of energy replacement in human society is firewood, coal, oil, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, nuclear annihilation, and vacuum energy. Nowadays, nuclear fusion technology has become the strategic commanding heights of nuclear energy utilization, followed by annihilation and vacuum energy, which is the historical trend of energy development.
There is no mention of electricity here, because electricity is a "secondary energy" that has been converted, and it is the "universal currency" in energy. Since the advent of generators, the stage of electricity has become more and more broad. Coal and oil can be used to generate electricity, and the energy of nuclear fission must be converted into stable electrical energy before it can be used for production, and future nuclear fusion, nuclear annihilation, and vacuum energy also need to be converted into electrical energy before it can be widely used.
Because of the conduction of electric energy, the on-off of electric energy, the durability of electric energy, and the large load capacity, this "secondary energy" has a broader application space than primary energy.
The USS Ford, which has a full load of 110,000 tons, uses 14 million feet of power cables, including 10 million feet of power cables, equivalent to 3,048 kilometers. According to the cable contractor of the domestic aircraft carrier, the cable contract of the domestic aircraft carrier has reached an astonishing 5,000 kilometers in one breath.
Why did the USS Ford, which has a power of 60,000 kilowatts, lay more than 3,000 kilometers of cables?Because of the large number of actuators of the aircraft carrier, the complex system, and the different voltages required by the actuators, if these actuators all use internal combustion engines, it will not only occupy a lot of space, but also the difficulty of maintenance and operation will be greatly increased, and the overall energy conversion efficiency will be reduced, and the fuel consumption will increase. The conversion of electric energy to large generators can not only greatly improve the energy conversion efficiency, but also use a simple conversion circuit to generate a variety of power supplies to supply various actuators.
In short, the use of electrical energy is more convenient.
Now the world has entered a post-industrial society, i.e. Industry 4Stage 0 is the stage of intelligent interconnection. With Industry 40, the proportion of electric energy demand will be higher and higher, because electricity is easy to combine with intelligent control, which is difficult or even impossible for internal combustion engines to complete. In addition, in the transportation sector, the demand for electricity is also increasing. In civilian cars, electric vehicles have low driving costs;The tram is not only powerful, but also easy to control intelligentlyThe speed of the DC motor is beyond the reach of the internal combustion engine, so the high-speed train can only use electricity.
With the progress of energy science and technology and the improvement of environmental protection needs, oil is increasingly recycled, and a large proportion of it has become a chemical raw material. We can imagine that once the 200,000 kilowatt Gansu Weiwu thorium-based molten salt reactor technology is promoted, how much clean and cheap electricity can be generated by thorium, which is as abundant as lead, and how oil and coal can occupy a place in the energy arena, they can only be reducing agents in chemical materials and smelting processes.
Therefore, no matter what kind of raw materials are used to provide energy in the future, nuclear fission, nuclear fusion, annihilation reaction, or vacuum energy must eventually be converted into electrical energy.
Therefore, for a long time in the future, electricity is the "hard currency" in energy, and how long it will be, at least the author has not been able to find a new energy form that can replace it, and naturally it is impossible to estimate when it will be replaced.
Therefore, whoever can make a big difference in electricity will grasp the pulse of the times.
The level of electricity supply in China.
The supply level of electricity should be comprehensively evaluated from the aspects of total supply, supply quality, supply distance, and market price.
In 2021, China produced the largest amount of electricity.
The quality of power mainly includes three aspects: the carbon content of electricity, the continuity of supply and the stability of voltage. According to information released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, China's power generation in 2021 reached 81,121800 million kWh. Among them, coal-fired power generation still occupies the first place - the total climbed to 57,702700 million kilowatt hours, about 71 percent of China's total power generation13%。
Hydropower is the second largest in terms of electricity generation, generating 11,840 electricity in 2021200 million kilowatt hours, about 14 percent of the country's total electricity generation6%；Wind power ranks third, generating 566.7 billion kWh of electricity in 2021, accounting for 699%；Nuclear power generation is 4075200 million kWh, accounting for 502%。
The amount of solar power generated is 1836600 million kWh, accounting for 226%。Many netizens believe that China's future power production structure needs to continue to be clean, and the proportion of thermal power generation can be reduced to 20%, the proportion of nuclear power generation increased to 30%, and the proportion of hydropower and wind power generation increased to 20%.
The remaining 10% is reserved for solar energy. Vigorously develop nuclear, wind and solar power generation, which is the main direction of China's energy development, but increasing the proportion of hydropower to 20% may be difficult or even unattainable.
Therefore, whoever has sufficient, stable, high-quality, and cheap electricity will have more potential for economic development, the more it can attract industries to get closer, and the more it can affect the development of the world economy.