Taking advantage of the recent turmoil in the South China Sea in the Philippines, let's talk a few words about the Philippines, otherwise we can't talk about it normally. There is no other reason, because he is a member of ASEAN, a member of RCEP, and one of the countries with the largest number of overseas Chinese...In short, he is our neighbor who we can't move from, so we have to exercise restraint.
But don't feel aggrieved, you will ridicule and abuse at every turn, and even fight each other, that is what a small country does. We are "Peaceful Rise", a country of etiquette since ancient times. In fact, the great powers in history have all been aggrieved in this way, and they have never judged heroes by one thing at a time.
Therefore, the wood is beautiful in the forest, and the wind will destroy it; Heaps out of the shore, and the flow will be turbulent; Walk above men, and the crowd will not. Whether it is the Han, Tang, Roman, Persian and Ottoman dynasties, or the current Five Constants, there are moments of humiliation. France has the humiliation of surrender, Britain has lost Afghanistan three times, and Russia has suffered a crushing defeat in Crimea, not to mention it, and it is all tears when we talk about it.
Speaking of the current United States, since the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, US embassies and military bases in the Middle East have been repeatedly attacked, and all kinds of shells have been eaten and incendiary bottles, and everyone has been cynical, but people are just good and act as if they are nothing. In fact, from the point of view of the United States, a few shells killed and injured a few people are not even a chicken feather.
On September 11, 2012, the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi was attacked and even Ambassador Stevens was burned to death. Even more serious on November 4, 1979, Iranian Lao Tie not only captured the US Embassy in Tehran, but also captured 52 American hostages, which is considered one of the most serious crises in the history of US diplomacy, and people have been chatting with Iran calmly for 444 days.
See, when a big country faces a provocation from a small country, it is a routine operation to exercise restraint, why? You're a big country! I have seen a lot of people in the world, so naturally I won't roll up my sleeves for a small scene, and jumping eight feet high is something that ruffians and hooligans do. Only a small country will be a "big country with words", and the people who eat melons actually understand it very well, and they don't believe it to go and see who the "Five Constants of the Oil Pavilion" are.
Therefore, we can't think about what to do with the Philippines just because the Philippines has invaded several times. In fact, there is no need, after all, we have actually controlled these islands, reefs and sea areas, and we have also achieved regular patrols. No matter how much he makes trouble, he can't make big waves, he is actually clear in his heart, so why make trouble?
On the surface, it seems that the Philippines is making trouble, but in fact, the United States is pulling it behind its back, which shows that the United States has a request for us, but he refuses to lower his eyebrows and beg people, so he always plays this trick of "turning the void into a bargaining chip".
The basic routine is like this: first, the void becomes a bargaining chip, that is, there is nothing to find trouble to disgust us; the second is to keep arching the fire, waiting for us to beg him; The third is that if we don't ask him, he will make more trouble; Fourth, if we don't recognize this bargaining chip, he will come to the door hard.
The intermittent convulsions in the Philippines began in February this year, when the Philippines opened four military bases to the United States, plus the five bases in the "Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement" between the United States and the Philippines, the U.S. military can now deploy at nine bases in the Philippines, but don't think how awesome this thing is.
When the United States is strong, this thing is good for control; Once the United States declines, these bases will become the soft underbelly of the United States, and even become "hostages", especially around the South China Sea, that is, a matter of a few missiles. Therefore, the United States is doing this more like a kind of catharsis and performance art, and what he wants to express is: See? Dude is also an important geopolitical player in this place!
We are insensitive, you hit yours, I hit mine. If you go to military bases, I will be everywhere in port logistics bases; If you go around fighting with people, I will do business with people all over the world and make a fortune together. In fact, this style of play made the United States very desperate and also put him in a "prisoner's dilemma", why? I'll explain it to everyone.
After all, what is sea power? Is it to control the main sea communication routes through garrisons? So what's in it for when you control it? Is it really just to extort some protection money? Well! It's good to run into a small country, after all, with the big brother, it is common to be hungry for nine meals in three days, so what if you run into a big guy?
It may have been easier to use earlier, after all, your fists are hard enough, even if you forcibly board the ship for inspection, people can endure it. Now that you are in decline, you are just disguised as a pirate and robbed, and people are not afraid of you, send a fleet to escort you! If one batch doesn't work, there will be two batches, and if the tonnage is not enough, the tonnage will be increased, anyway, building a ship is like a dumpling.
Therefore, in the environment of limited war in the region, the United States actually has nothing to do, and it must not really fight a nuclear war and restart the earth! Even if the people at the bottom of Europe and the United States want to die together, can the elites accept it? Xiangche beauty big mansion, who can put it? Don't think that the first mushroom cultivation in the United States was in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and think that this thing is for civilians.
In fact, with the United States unilaterally owning mushrooms, the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki was intended to deter the Japanese elite and make them understand that Tokyo was not safe and that they could be overtaken wherever they hid. Then Japan immediately announced its unconditional surrender, and no longer dared to shout "100 million pieces of jade", why? Because it was someone else who broke it before, and now it looks like it's going to break itself, so it's a hammer!
In fact, the so-called sea power hegemony is: ocean hegemony + ** hegemony. That is, you have to control the sea traffic, but also the "world factory", and the real hegemony is to grasp both internal and external services. But since the Reagan era, the United States has lost its hegemony, transformed into a financial empire, and collected seigniorage.
Then there is a paradox, financial circulation relies on the banking system and computer networks, so why do you spend so much money to control the sea traffic arteries? Britain controlled the main sea lanes and restricted the logistics of other countries**, so that they could at least supply physical products to the world.
If you control the main sea transportation routes in the United States and restrict others from engaging in **, then you are providing industrial products to everyone? If you de-industrialize yourself and don't produce anything, then you can only let others do it, after all, only physical objects can meet real needs!
Then the United States felt that it had lost a lot of money, saying that they had provided marine protection, but we were the biggest beneficiary of the ocean, the largest country in the world. Come on! This is a bit unreasonable, if you feel that you are in a panic, you should withdraw! No one begged you to garrison there, and without your garrison, the sea would be more peaceful.
It's crooked, let's go back to the Philippines. In February, the Philippines opened four bases for the U.S. military. In April, the United States and the Philippines launched the "Shoulder to Shoulder" joint military exercise in Manila Xi In June, the United States, Japan and the Philippines conducted joint military exercises again; In July, the Philippines hyped up the 7th anniversary of the illegal verdict on that rotten street; In August, the Philippines announced another joint cruise with the United States
In line with this, the Philippines has been engaged in the South China Sea since May; At the peak of June, there was even a large formation of six boats in unison, which launched a series of attacks on our naval blockade line at Ren'ai Jiao, but we were all driven away; In August, out of humanitarianism, we asked them to deliver a batch of daily necessities to the ** who was illegally "sitting on the beach".
He's good! I don't know why we thought we were afraid of him, and then he kept being cheap. Recently, there has been a trend of rampage, first on December 9, three Philippine official ships invaded the waters near our Scarborough Shoal; Then, on December 10, four more Philippine ships intruded into the waters near our Second Thomas Shoal, but we forcibly pushed them down. This shows that we don't eat the "void into chips" at all, and then the United States will start to come to the door hard.
On June 18-19, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited; From July 6 to 9, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited; On July 16, John Kerry, the U.S. Special Envoy for Climate, visited; From August 27th to 30th, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo visited...But judging from the constant troubles of the United States and the Philippines, the United States may not have gotten what they wanted, so it has been rolling on the ground like a bear child.
Then the question is, they have been making frequent troubles recently, what do they ask us for? Actually, they beg us a lot! In the Eastern European direction, the Washington Post reported on the inside story of the defeat of Zaporozhye ** in Ukraine, it seems that who should be careful, after all, Kissinger said earlier: it is dangerous to be an enemy of the United States, and it is fatal to be an ally of the United States.
To add another word, on December 6, the G7 leaders issued a joint statement, urging us to pressure Russia to stop its "military aggression" against Ukraine. It's unbelievable that they actually rely on us for something that can't be done with us. Don't say you're too lazy to take care of your G7, what if you're G8?
In the Middle East, the old Israeli iron is still busy pumping water into the tunnels of Hamas's hometowns, and the US military bases and embassies in the Middle East are also facing the enemy. In the direction of East Asia, don't look at Japan and South Korea used to have a lot of fun, but recently they have stabilized a batch, except for the bear child Philippines who takes it as his responsibility to make trouble, everyone else is in a wash-and-sleep style.
The only thing that aroused everyone's interest was the failure of South Korea's "Shenbo", which sulked at home. My brother is so hard at performing, you actually voted for the big family? It's unreasonable, hurry up and return the kimchi that was sent to you!
As for the United States, I really can't say that I have watched a lot of American street photography during this time**, especially Kensington Street in Philadelphia, and I was really shocked, and it was eroded by drugs into a "zombie land". To be honest, in the face of this kind of low-level rotten situation, I am embarrassed to mention big words such as the Federal Reserve's money ability, inflation CPI and America First, which is really shameless.
Generally speaking, the United States has gone to many places to beg us, including the old and young people in Europe, who are no longer qualified to "urge" us. Here's a question, when East Asia and Southeast Asia have a stable group, and everyone is bent on development, why does the Philippines jump left and right, and "people are addicted to food" to help the United States take advantage of the fire? But this matter is that the child has no mother, and it is a long story, so I have to start with his mother.
In fact, the Philippines is very similar to India, in that it was not a country in the pre-colonial era, but just a geographical concept. India is made up of more than 500 princely states, and the Philippines is made up of more than 7,000 islands. That is, the Philippines was never seen as a whole until the Spanish colonizers came to the door in 1565.
There are dozens of households on small islands and hundreds or thousands of households on large islands, similar to family tribes, commonly known as "barangai", and the chief of the tribal stewards is called "datu" or "dū", which is similar to the chief and patriarch. Everyone is related by blood or marriage, very close and united, and the relationship between the members and the boss is a kind of shelter.
Of course, the real person who can be Luo Ja's manager is definitely not because they are highly respected and speak well and are lovely, but because they control enough seas, forests and farmland, that is, they have enough wealth and hard enough fists, and when they encounter disobedient thorns, he has the ability to knock out people. So in the pre-colonial era, there were thousands of families living in the Philippine archipelago.
But after the Spanish colonizers came, it was different, he couldn't talk to everyone from house to house, he would only talk to those relatively powerful families, and after the negotiation was done, he would empower them. Good boy! Industry empowered agriculture, and muskets and cannons served as backers for harpoons and hoes, which immediately broke the original equilibrium.
Then, those empowered big families began to expand their territory, and they were upgraded to big landlords one after another, becoming a real family of gate valves. To the present, there are still more than 200 big families in the Philippines, and those rich and powerful bigwigs are born from these families, that is, the so-called "elite".
But these elites are inherently flawed, what do you mean?It was their family that was chosen and empowered by the colonizers. Most of their growth trajectories are also to study in their host country and then return to China**.
During this period, they also sprouted some national consciousness and wanted to take back what belonged to them, but without the empowerment of the colonists, they were not fart. Then a situation was formed in which the thighs were hugged against the thighs, which was slightly embarrassing!And then I was embarrassed!
In 1898, the United States defeated the Spanish colonists, and although they established the Republic of the Philippines, they still could not escape the fate of being ruled by the United States. In fact, for these elites, what they are most afraid of is not changing their thighs, but not having thighs or not having thick thighs. But since hugging America's thighs, they've been as cool as they want!
But everyone has a glorious moment, don't take a moment as permanent, when the American thighs are thick, the little third aunt in the main house can eat and drink spicy food, rain and dew. Once down, the first person to be gagged is the second wife and the third aunt. When the "Great Depression" broke out in 1929, the thigh family had no surplus food, and even the main house was yellow and thin.
At that time, the United States demanded that the vampire Philippines be thrown off, not only restricting immigration, but also fighting a ** war with him. But he is an American colony, and the tariffs and personnel are in the hands of the United States, so you fight a **war with him?Doesn't this hurt itself?The United States was immediately confused, how could it beat itself?How is this good?
If it is said that it has to be the brains of the Americans, then he must quickly become independent and live alone. Then the United States passed the Philippine Independence Act in 1932, requiring the Philippines to become independent 10 years later, in 1942. However, the Philippines did not agree, and the Philippine Senate rejected the bill. I want to dump my mother, but there is no door!What about the break-up fee?Do you still have feelings between people?
Hold the grass!Can you play the cards normally!Then the United States immediately passed a new independence bill, this time pushing Independence Day to 1946 and promising more benefits to the Philippines. Then in 1946, even in the face of a desperate struggle with the Soviet Union, the United States did not forget its original intention and insisted on running away until the point.
Then, the Philippines ended the Dominion era and was really independent!In fact, there are not too many countries that want to be the 52nd state of the United States. But the United States is also principled, and it is not necessary to collect all the rags at home. He only wants a sparsely populated or absolutely small population, and a place with a lot of people.
For example, Alaska has a population of more than 700,000 people in more than 1.7 million square kilometers, and Hawaii has a population of just over 1.2 million, although it is small. With a population of 10 million like Cuba, even if it is close at hand, the United States does not want it. And the Philippines is not only located at the ends of the earth, but also has a population of hundreds of millions, what are you going to do?
To put it mildly, the Philippines now has a population of 11.6 billion, the total population of the United States is only 33.3 billion. If he had really been accepted back then, the United States and the House of Representatives would not have had the Filipino sayThe American veterans are scared to think about it!
On the surface, the United States has indeed left the Philippines, but its military bases are still there, and its influence is still strong. According to friends who have been to Manila, it is a low-copy version of the United States, which shows the Philippines' yearning for the United States everywhere, and the whole society has a natural affection for the United States.
According to a Pew poll, from 1990 to 2016, Filipinos' favorability toward the United States remained above 90% on average every year. Even if Lao Du stepped on the brakes and turned sharply when he came to power, in 2017, the Philippine Lao Tie's favorability towards the United States remained above 70%. Therefore, there is still a certain basis of public opinion for all the fucked things that the Philippines is doing now.
Next, let's talk about it from the Philippine elite level, and everyone will understand that the Philippines has a deeper foundation for doing things.
On the surface, the Philippines is a democratic politics, but in fact, it is a family politics with a monopoly on power by a large family, and it presents three characteristics: elitism, localization, and patronization. Don't think this thing is buried, it's the result of choosing again and again. This kind of family politics sprouted out of the patronage relationship between the Raja and the tribesmen, and in the absence of a real revolution, it snowballed in size.
The first is elitism. From the pre-colonial Luo Ja to the colonial assistant, the Filipino family used the convenience of their positions to obtain a lot of benefits, and then used their economic advantages to let their descendants study abroad, practice Xi, etc., and receive high-quality and excellent education. Over the centuries, these families have formed a huge power, and slowly transitioned from meritocracy to meritocracy, that is, "meritocracy".
The second is localization. It is more than 200 large families have their own territories, and these territories are the islands they control. Under normal circumstances, if they do a good job, they can go from the local government to the Congress, and if they can't get along and go back to the local area, they can continue to do it.
For example, the former ** Lao Du in the Philippines, their family's territory is in Mindanao in the southern Philippines. Prior to his election as the Philippines, he was the mayor of Davao City, the island's largest city. His predecessor was his father, and the old comrade worked in this position for more than 20 years, he worked from 1986 to 2016. After he became a **, his eldest daughter Sara took over as mayor, and his youngest son served as deputy mayor. ”
The third is entrusted, that is, this kind of family politics is constantly inherited. For example, in the first congressional election after the "People Power Movement" in 1986, 130 of the 200 members of the House of Representatives were members of well-known large families, another 39 were closely related to large families, and only 31 were considered to have no family background.
For example, since the independence of the Philippines, 17 **, 13 have been related to each other, only one "civilian**" has even appeared "mother and son**" Aquino III and Corazon Aquino are mother and son;"Father and daughter**" Arroyo and Macapagal are father and daughter;"Father and son**" Marcos Jr. and Marcos Sr.
And most of these people have the shadow of US manipulation behind them, such as the current **Marcos Jr., his father Lao Ma served as the Philippines ** from 1965 to 1986, and with the support of the United States, Lao Ma also once started ** rule. In order to be re-elected in the 1986 election, he even did not hesitate to assassinate his rival Aquino, causing Corazon Aquino to go on the expedition and become the first female ** in the Philippines.
After being labeled as a "thief of the country", he really had no face to mix in the Philippines, so Lao Ma tearfully went to Hawaii with a huge amount of money to retire. Although the United States once disliked Lao Ma, in view of the fact that Lao Ma was an extremely good comrade, the United States still provided shelter for their family.
A few years ago, the Philippines was led by Lao Du to turn around, causing the Filipino people's favorability towards the United States to drop sharply. So the United States hurried to let the pony "return of the king".
Everyone can take a look at the election situation at that time, and the entire Philippine Internet is almost 100% critical of Pony and his father, and strongly supports the former deputy ** Leni. But since the first election poll, Pony has been leading by 15%, and by the time he voted, he was ahead of Leni by about 40%.
What's even more magical is that this guy didn't participate in any of the TV debates, because he doesn't like debates, that's why he's so arrogant. In addition, he rarely talks about his governing policies and ideas, and all his speeches are like a family affair, shaking hands and chatting with people everywhere with his wife and children, completely ignoring other candidates, and treating others as air ......That's all this can be chosen, isn't it magical?
So, expect them to think about the interests of the country?Not only think more, but also think beautifully!Even if he wanted to, he wouldn't dare!However, this situation is not unique to the Philippines, but is found in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, which shows that the United States still has deep roots, and no matter how it dies, it will be a hundred-legged insect that dies but does not stiffen.
And we, as an emerging force, no matter what trouble the Philippines makes, we have to fight for him, even if we do half the effort, we have to do it little by little. The so-called "foolish man moves mountains" is a pawn of the sun, a long time of work, an inch of joy, not frightened, not controlled by emotions, not burdened by false fame, this is the real sense of strategic determination.
He is strong, he is strong, and the breeze caresses the hills. He is crossed by him, and the bright moon shines on the river!
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