According to the National Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center of the China Meteorological Administration, a geomagnetic storm occurred from 20 o'clock to 23 o'clock on December 1, and auroral activity occurred in many places in China. The China Meteorological Administration issued a geomagnetic storm warning on the 2nd, which once topped the hot search list, why can the Meteorological Bureau predict geomagnetic storms?And what is space weather forecasting?
Looking at the weather forecast on your phone when you go out has become a Xi for many people. Then, in distant space, satellites need to avoid space debris, and astronauts need to reasonably arrange the time to get out of the capsule, etc., which are inseparable from space weather forecasting.
Space weather occurs in the space between the Sun and more than 30 kilometers above the ground, and refers to the conditions or states in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere on the Sun that can affect the normal operation and reliability of space-based and ground-based technological systems and endanger human health and life. According to the intensity of solar activity, it can be divided into two types: calm and burst. There is the "solar wind" made of plasma, and the "space rain" made of countless high-energy particles. Just like the storms and snows that happen on Earth, the weather in space can be sometimes "breezy" and sometimes "stormy".
During low solar years, space weather is calmer. In high solar years, solar storms occur frequently and in various forms, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar eruptions. Space weather may seem distant or irrelevant, but in fact it is ubiquitous and pervasive in all aspects of our lives. For example, when a solar storm erupts, ships, cars, and even smartphones can be interfered with, causing problems such as inaccurate positioning. The beautiful aurora is a space weather phenomenon that humans can directly observe with the naked eye, but its occurrence could mean that the Earth is suffering from a solar storm.
Mid-latitude Aurora Data Map **Visual China.
The role of space weather forecasting is to forecast space weather events and their impacts. Early space weather forecasting mainly focused on the appearance changes of sunspots, such as the increase or decrease of the number of sunspots, the change of sunspot shape, etc., a bit like looking at the weather through the clouds in the past, through the shape and number of clouds. At present, based on observational data and scientific theories, methods such as the probability of flare occurrence based on the physical parameters of the solar surface and the calculation of solar wind parameters through numerical models are constantly developing, and space weather forecasting has begun to enter the numerical era.
There are many types of space weather forecasting products, including **, weekly, monthly, and annual reports. Space Weather** summarizes the space weather conditions in the past 24 hours and forecasts the space weather conditions for the next 1-3 days, including the level of solar activity, the level of geomagnetic activity, and the state of the ionosphere. The space weather weekly report summarizes the space weather situation in the last seven days and forecasts the space weather trend in the next seven days. When important space weather events such as large flares and geomagnetic storms occur, products such as space weather reports will also be released. The public can learn about space weather forecasts and early warning information through the space weather section of the China Weather Network, the official Weibo of the National Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center, and WeChat***.
Up-to-date forecasts. A light to moderate magnetic storm is likely on 4 December.
According to the authoritative release of the National Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center of the China Meteorological Administration, from 17 o'clock on December 1 to 8 o'clock on December 2, Beijing time, affected by the solar coronal mass ejection (CME) outbreak, there was a 3-hour kp of 7 geomagnetic storms, a 3-hour kp of 6 medium geomagnetic storms, and 9-hour small geomagnetic storms, and the geomagnetic activity is still continuing. (The KP index is the global magnetic field index, which reflects the activity of the earth's magnetic field every three hours, and the higher the value, the stronger the geomagnetic activity).
As a typical solar eruption activity, CME is driven by the strong magnetic field of sunspots, which throws hundreds of millions or even trillions of tons of coronal material at a high speed of hundreds to thousands of kilometers per second, forming a shock wave similar to **, and the shock wave is quickly transmitted to all parts of the solar system. After being bombarded by it, the direction and magnitude of the Earth's magnetic field change significantly, and geomagnetic storms occur.
With the occurrence of geomagnetic storms, auroras appear. This time, there were auroral activities in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other places in China, and even Beijing had clear aurora sightings and observation records this time.
According to the National Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center of the China Meteorological Administration, this is the seventh geomagnetic activity at the level of a geomagnetic storm this year, following February 27, March, April and September 19. According to the latest monitoring and forecast from the National Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center of the China Meteorological Administration, a small to moderate magnetic storm may occur on December 4 due to the combined influence of the high-speed solar wind in the coronal hole and the CME on December 1.
Yangtze Evening News Purple Cow News reporter Yu Dandan.
Proofreading Tao Shangong.