【Last week's review】Scrap steel ** first rose and then declined, maintaining high cost performance
As of December 15, the average price of scrap in 45 mainstream cities was 2,5724 yuan ton, week-on-week **256 yuan tons, year-on-year **618 yuan ton.
1. The steel mill is still actively producing
The spread between hot rolled and scrap is 108808 yuan ton, an increase of 22 week-on-week6 yuan ton, the price difference between hot rolled and scrap steel has widened slightly;The spread between rebar and scrap is 111791 yuan tons, a decrease of 1 week-on-week4 yuan ton, the price difference between rebar and scrap steel narrowed slightly. In the second half of last week, the market fell, the thread was *** and the scrap fell insignificantly, the screw scrap price spread narrowed, the profits of the steel mills producing thread narrowed slightly, and the hot rolling was relatively supported by market demand, but the price spread widened and the gross profit increased. At present, the steel mills as a whole have good profits, the production enthusiasm is high, and the slight fluctuations are still expected.
2. The iron scrap difference is upside down and 344 scrap steel remains cost-effective
Taking Jiangsu as an example, as of December 15, the price difference between scrap and hot metal in Jiangsu was inverted by 344 yuan tons, a decrease of 29 yuan tons week-on-week and a year-on-year decrease of 259 yuan tons, and the price gap between scrap and hot metal continued to narrow. Specifically, at the end of last week, the market fell, iron ore ** maintained a high and narrow range of fluctuations, superimposed blast furnace centralized maintenance, and the cost of molten iron narrowed slightly;In the case of the arrival of most steel mills, the procurement of scrap steel is mostly stable or slightly adjusted, so the decline of comprehensive molten iron is greater than that of scrap, and the difference between iron scrap has narrowed, but on the whole, the cost-effective advantage of scrap continues to be highlighted.
[Fundamentals]**Weaker demand is stronger
1. **Aspect: Affected by the weather, the arrival volume of steel mills around the country has dropped significantly
As of December 14, the total daily arrival of scrap steel from 300 steel mills of My Steel was 56830,000 tons, a decrease of 1 from last week280,000 tons, a decrease of 22%；Month-on-month decrease of 1350,000 tons, a decrease of 232%。This is an increase of 1 year-on-year410,000 tons, an increase of 255%。From the perspective of various regions, the arrival of steel mills around the country has shown a significant decline, especially in North China, affected by ice and snow weather, the market scrap logistics speed has slowed down, and near the end of the year, scrap steel goods are roughly locked, and the market can deliver to steel mills at their own pace. From the perspective of base inventory, the site is generally low inventory or general inventory, and a small number of high inventory, so it is difficult to have a large increase in the arrival of steel mills in the later stage.
2. On the demand side: profits drive steel mills to actively produce steel mills in the south to increase the daily consumption of scrap steel
As of December 14, the total daily consumption of scrap steel in my 300 steel mills was 57130,000 tons, an increase of 0840,000 tons, an increase of 148%；Month-on-month, it increased by 1640,000 tons, an increase of 295%；A year-on-year increase of 3970,000 tons, an increase of 75%。On the whole, the demand for scrap in steel mills continues to increase, and the daily consumption of each region is consistent, long-process steel enterprises, the current scrap is lower than the cost of molten iron 358 yuan tons, scrap cost-effective advantages are significant, coupled with some blast furnace maintenance, the output of molten iron has decreased, and the proportion and amount of scrap into the furnace have increased;The operating rate of the electric furnace end this week decreased compared with last week, but the magnitude was not large, and the capacity utilization rate was still on the rise, while the profit margin of steel mills was considerable, and some electric furnace enterprises were in the stage of saturated production, most of the production enthusiasm was not reduced, and the daily consumption of scrap continued to increase slightly. Considering the off-season demand for finished steel and the suppression of high inventories of most steel mills, the winter storage pressure of steel mills has been reduced, and the support of electric furnace production for scrap demand is limited.
3. Inventory: the daily consumption increases and the arrival of goods decreases, and the scrap steel inventory of steel mills is relatively flat
This week, the market is mixed, the enthusiasm of shipments in many markets is average, and the overall increase in steel mill inventory is not obvious, as of December 14, the total scrap inventory of my steel 300 steel mills is 60220,000 tons, an increase of 3820,000 tons, an increase of 064%；Month-on-month, it increased by 50410,000 tons, an increase of 913%；This is an increase of 53 year-on-year870,000 tons, an increase of 983%。In terms of sub-regions, the inventory growth of steel mills in North China and Central China is stable, mainly due to the improvement of steel mill profits in the region, and the sharp price increaseEast China steel mill inventory slightly, the early black disk is good, the market is looking forward to rising at the same time steel mills also raised the scrap **, with the end of the week disk fall, the market is afraid of falling, the pace of shipments is relatively accelerated, combined with the current steel mill arrival slightly more than the daily consumption, so the overall steel scrap inventory increased slightly.
[In the past two days, there is support at the bottom of the scrap fundamentals, but the upside is limited
Last week, many places in the north welcomed the cold wave and snowy weather, the transaction of finished materials was not good, the snail fell, and the market mentality weakened in the second half of the week. However, the production enthusiasm of steel mills has not diminished under the condition of considerable profits, which has supported the demand for scrap steel;After the weather turned cold, the northern scrap steel ** weakened, and the scrap resources in some markets were tight, which also supported the scrap steel**. The southern market has recently entered the cold wave weather, the logistics operation is currently normal, but the speed has slowed down, and the demand for finished steel in the south is acceptable, the long-process steel mills have increased the scrap ratio, the short-process steel mills are partially in full production, and some steel mills have scrap winter storage and replenishment needs. Therefore, on the whole, there is support at the bottom of the scrap fundamentals, but the upside is limited, and it may be in a narrow range in the short term.