The U.S. interest rate hike is over, and the pig cycle can't wait for a long time?
On the 14th, the United States announced the CPI for October, which increased by 0 month-on-month, lower than the expected 01% growth. A year-on-year increase of 32%, down from 33%, both year-on-year and month-on-month, are lower than expected. This also means that the overheating of the US economy has finally been contained!
In recent years, the main logic of the theory of economic collapse in the United States is that the American economy is overheated, and if it is overheated, it will collapse, so the United States wants its CPI and employment rate first. Our country is completely different from him, we hope that prices will be moderate, because in this way we can improve the profits of related industrial companies, and the company will have the money to pay wages and raise wages to workers, and when workers have money, they will consume, and when they consume, the economy will develop.
In the past two days, the news of a 40% drop in pork has been on the hot search, according to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, the current pig **1518 yuan more than kilograms, down 073 yuan, down 42 from last year1%。However, in the first half of this year, various analysts have been saying that the pig cycle is coming to an end, **is going to **. But it is almost the end of the year, and the financial reports of pig enterprises in the first three quarters are generally not increasing but losing. The relationship between pig prices and pig production capacity has been relatively close, and in the past, after the pig production capacity peaked, it would fall immediately. However, in this cycle, pig production capacity peaked and fell at the end of 2022, and it will not be accelerated until October 2023!
The valuation logic of pig enterprises in the secondary market is that the stock of pig enterprises x expected pig price x net profit margin xpe (8-10 times in the past two years), according to this standard, the stock price of listed pig companies is generally undervalued. However, according to the supply and demand pattern of pork, the average weight level, the price of fat pigs and other factors. **The supply and demand of live pigs in the later period are still loose, but the price of pigs may be slightly improved in the seasonal improvement of consumption, and the real improvement will only have to wait until the second half of next year. In short, the pig cycle reversal is not now!