In 2023, the performance disparity of equity ** products in the whole market has reached 11413%, the performance differentiation data has exceeded the level of 2022.
Wind data shows that as of the end of 2023, the annual performance of the market's public offerings** products is as high as 11413%, this data is contributed by the performance of GF**'s overseas QDII** and the new energy ** of Bank of Shanghai**, the performance advantages of the head public offering in the overseas market, and the involution competition of the theme homogenization of the small and medium-sized public offering on the A-share ** track, also highlights that the public offering may have to jump out of the inherent thinking and track to obtain stable and considerable management fee income.
The difference between strength and weakness is striking.
Brokerage China reporters noticed that as of now, the cumulative annual return rate of GF Global Select**, a subsidiary of GF**, is 67 in 202363%, far ahead of other ** products, including the 58. created by the China Beijing Stock Exchange ** in the A-share Beijing Stock Exchange sectorA staggering yield of 56% compared to 67The existence of 63% of the data also further widens the performance differentiation of weaker** products in 2023.
At the same time, the Bank of Shanghai New Energy Industry Select**, a subsidiary of the Bank of Shanghai, is at the bottom of the whole market, and the cumulative net value loss of the ** product that only focuses on the new energy track will reach an astonishing 46 in 202350%。The above data also greatly exceeds the performance disparity of public offerings in 2022. In 2022, the highest rate of return of equity** is close to 49%, while the cumulative loss of the worst equity** is 50%, and the difference between the strength of equity** is less than 100%.
It is worth noting that QDII** has created 6763% of the data, and in one fell swoop to surpass the annual rate of return of the most bullish products in A-shares, to a considerable extent, means that the public offering ** company has begun to improve in the development, layout and investment research of overseas QDII products, QDII products have begun to have positive feedback on the operation of the public offering ** company, especially in the profit level of the company, the core factor is that the annual performance elasticity of QDII products has begun to increase significantly, thereby attracting a large number of ** funds to subscribe for products with high yield needs.
The proportion of institutional investors in the above products has hit the second lowest in the 13 years of operation of the product, highlighting the significant characteristics of the first funds after the favor. According to the data disclosed by the above-mentioned products, as of the end of June 2023, the institutional holding ratio of GF Global Select** has been as low as 211%, * investors hold a staggering 9789%。
It is difficult to obtain management fee income.
The profitability of the top public offering in the overseas market, as well as the bottom of the A** market in the mainland for small and medium-sized public offerings, also further highlights that the public offering will face difficulties in obtaining management fee income in the fierce competition of involution homogeneous track.
Specifically, GF Global Select** has actually been established for 13 years, but for a long time, the QDII ** did not actually contribute attractive management fee income to the company, and in the worst year, the total asset size of the product was less than 1500 million yuan, and from the beginning of 2020 to show the high elasticity of performance, the scale of the product's capital began to soar, and the share size on December 31, 2020 was 71.6 billion copies, and the total funding scale jumped to 238.4 billion yuan, the product began to gradually contribute considerable management fee income, and when the time comes to the end of September 2023, GF Global Select** will exceed 3.3 billion yuan, industry insiders expect that considering the huge subscription impact of each round of annual performance ranking in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year, the asset scale of GF Global Select** may further soar, which means that the public offering** QDII products will also enter the stage of substantial profit contribution, especially in the management fee income of a single product.
Compared with the head public offering from the highly homogeneous product type, the track involution competition of the A-shares, cut into the overseas market investment, small and medium-sized public offerings in the homogeneous and involution of the A-share track, facing great market competition pressure, taking the new energy track of the A-share market as an example, the track is actually filled with a large number of the same type of theme products, including many star managers, top managers managed by related products, and as a feature is not significant Shanghai Bank New Energy Industry Selection** In terms of this, if there is no halo effect comparable to that of the top managers, the breakthrough of performance alone actually means that it is difficult for such homogeneous themes to complete the jump in the scale of a single product, and it is difficult for management fee income to cover operating and personnel costs.
Taking the 2022 data as an example, the annual management fee income charged by the Bank of Shanghai New Energy Industry Select** is only 660,000 yuan, and after the huge loss in the annual performance and the bottom of the performance, the redemption problem of funds may exacerbate the pressure on its management fee income.
U.S. stocks may need to be cautious in 2024.
Regarding the judgment of the A-share new energy track and the U.S. market that investors are concerned about, the relevant institutions also have their own differences.
For developed markets such as U.S. stocks, which outperformed in 2023, it is necessary to maintain a certain degree of caution in 2024. Huang Liang, manager of Southern Global Select**, believes that on the one hand, the impact of high interest rates on corporate earnings will gradually be revealed in the 2024 interim report. On the other hand, the current relatively high interest rate environment is likely to last longer than the market expects, which will also adversely affect the valuation of risk assets. Hong Kong stocks remained weak in the first three quarters due to the sluggish economic recovery in Chinese mainland and the rapid decline in liquidity in the Hong Kong market. If Chinese mainland's economy enters the process of steady recovery, the current Hong Kong market is a market with dual advantages in valuation advantage and growth potential among the world's major markets.
He believes that the shift of overseas funds to Hong Kong stocks from underweight will also bring incremental financial support to the entire market. In terms of industry and development, there are good investment opportunities in the new economic fields that benefit from the policy adjustment and the traditional economic fields that benefit from the economic stabilization policy.
However, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is more optimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks. Goldman Sachs' outlook released in December 2023 projected a target point of 5,100 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2024. UBS AG believes that the outlook for the US market will be more modest, with a target of 4,700 points for the S&P 500 at the end of 2024.
On the new energy track, Cui Chenlong, manager of Qianhai Open Source New Economy, believes that new energy operators have begun to improve their business models, with higher certainty of medium and long-term growth, and compared with the manufacturing end, their penetration rate is lower, their business stability is strong, and the future development space is large, and they will pay attention to the medium and long-term investment opportunities of new energy operating enterprises. Overall, the supply of traditional energy may remain in a tight balance due to many factors, which will accelerate the substitution of new energy and further improve its cost performance. Although overseas demand fluctuates in the short term, based on the above factors, the certainty of long-term demand is high, and there is no need to worry too much about the sustainability of global demand. The market's concern about short-term overcapacity in some segments will most likely be covered by demand growth in the coming period, and there is no need to worry too much about the above problems in the current position.
Cui Chenlong emphasized that the accelerated development of AI will also stimulate the new energy track, and the joint emergence of AI and new energy is expected to make the development speed and height of the whole society to an astonishing degree. In the future, the speed of implementation of robots and autonomous driving may far exceed the expectations of the development of the original industry.
Editor-in-charge: Luo Xiaoxia.
Proofreading: Zhao Yan.
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