Recently, a survey on the investment confidence index of the insurance asset management industry has been released.
The above index was released by the Insurance Asset Management Association of China, and the data given by the 189 insurance institutions participating in the survey (insurance fund coverage rate of 98%) showed that the macroeconomic confidence index of the insurance asset management industry in 2024 was 5605. Fixed income investment confidence index 5782. Equity Investment Confidence Index 6101；For the first quarter of 2024, the three indices are: 33 as well as 6114。
It is worth mentioning that the insurance asset management industry is particularly optimistic about equity investment.
In terms of equity investment confidence index, insurance institutions expect equity investment to be more optimistic in 2024 and the first quarter of 2024, with 6101 and 6114, all above the median of 50. According to the previous survey results, the equity investment confidence index of insurance institutions in the fourth quarter of 2023 has just increased from 56 in the third quarter of 202367 rose to 57 in the fourth quarter72。
Confidence in the macroeconomy is strong.
The Insurance Asset Management Industry Investment Confidence Index is a new index product launched by the Insurance Asset Management Association of China in 2022, which is a leading indicator reflecting the investment confidence of the insurance asset management industry. Through the survey of more than 200 insurance institutions (insurance groups, insurance companies, and insurance asset management companies), the investment confidence index of the insurance asset management industry shows the prediction of the insurance asset management industry on the economic situation and investment trend in a certain period in the future in a concise, intuitive and quantitative way. The confidence index currently includes the macroeconomic confidence index, the fixed income investment confidence index and the equity investment confidence index, and the results range from 0-100, with 50 being the median, and the higher the index value, the stronger the confidence.
According to the survey results, the macroeconomic confidence index of insurance institutions for the 2024 and first quarter 2024 is 56., respectively05 and 5565, both higher than the median of 50, indicating that the insurance institutions participating in the survey are more optimistic about the macroeconomic situation in 2024 and the first quarter of 2024. The analysis of various indicators also shows that insurance institutions have weak confidence in real estate sales and employment, and have strong confidence in policy strength (fiscal policy, real estate policy, and monetary policy).
Compared with the macroeconomic confidence index of insurance companies and insurance asset management companies in 2024, the macroeconomic confidence index of insurance companies is slightly higher than that of insurance asset management companies, especially in terms of the growth rate of fixed asset investment, the growth rate of social financing stock and the growth rate of M2. However, in terms of export growth, real estate sales, employment and real estate policy strength, insurance companies' confidence is slightly lower than that of insurance asset management companies.
The equity investment confidence index continued to rise.
In terms of equity investment confidence index, insurance institutions expect equity investment to be more optimistic in 2024 and the first quarter of 2024, with 6101 and 6114, all above the median of 50. Among them, the domestic policy environment (liquidity, etc.), the overall trend of A-shares and the confidence value of ** valuation exceeded 60;Only the level of confidence in the international financial environment is slightly lower, but it is still in the more optimistic range.
The analysis of the equity investment confidence index of different insurance institutions shows that the confidence of insurance asset management companies in equity investment is slightly higher than that of insurance companies, especially the confidence in the international financial environment is much higher than that of insurance companies. At the same time, insurance companies have a higher degree of confidence in the valuation of ** than insurance asset management companies.
If we compare the equity investment confidence of insurance asset management companies of different sizes, the equity investment confidence of large insurance asset management companies is higher than that of small and medium-sized insurance asset management companies, especially in terms of corporate profitability and valuation, the confidence of large insurance asset management companies far exceeds that of small and medium-sized insurance asset management companies.
In terms of index judgment (excluding the equity investment confidence index), mainly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, CSI 800, SSE 50, ChiNext Index and STAR 50, insurance institutions are basically the same as the bullish expectations for 2024 and the first quarter of 2024, most insurance institutions are expected to be slightly **, but the bullish expectations for the whole year are slightly higher than in the first quarter. At the same time, insurance companies have higher index judgments on various indicators than insurance asset management companies.
In 2024, insurance asset management companies of different sizes will basically be the same as the CSI 800 and STAR 50, with large insurance asset management companies being more bullish on the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, SSE 50 and ChiNext Index than small and medium-sized insurance asset management companies.
The Fixed Income Investment Confidence Index also rebounded.
In terms of fixed income, the judgment given by insurance institutions is also better than in the fourth quarter of 2023.
According to the survey results, the confidence index of insurance institutions in fixed income investment in 2024 and the first quarter of 2024 was 5782 and 5333, all above the median value of 50. In the fourth quarter of 2023, insurance institutions' confidence in fixed income investment was only 4554, in a neutral and weak state.
Analysts pointed out that the insurance institutions participating in the survey are more optimistic about fixed income investment in 2024 and the first quarter of 2024, and the annual fixed income investment confidence index is slightly higher than that in the first quarter, indicating that the confidence in fixed income investment has the potential to increase. The analysis of specific indicators shows that insurance institutions believe that the supply of interest rate bonds and the spread of medium and low-grade credit may have a negative impact on the confidence of fixed income investment.
From the perspective of various indicators, the confidence of insurance asset management companies in fixed income investment is generally higher than that of insurance companies, and the expectations of insurance asset management companies in the other nine indicators are higher than those of insurance institutions, except for the supply of interest rate bonds.
Compared with the 2024 fixed-income investment confidence of insurance asset management companies of different sizes, the fixed-income investment confidence index of large insurance asset management companies is higher than that of small and medium-sized insurance asset management companies.
Editor-in-charge: Yang Yucheng.
Proofreading: Liao Shengchao.
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