Knowledge explosion training camp
Author Baked buns under the stars.
Edit Spinach's Starry Sky.
Typography Leeks under the stars.
This year, although the track of new energy power batteries is still hot, the highest level of cobalt metal in the upstream of the battery is diametrically opposed to the expectations of many investors, and the price of cobalt has fallen from more than 560,000 tons at the beginning of 2022 to today210,000 tonsaround (a low point in the past three years), and there is no sign of bottoming out**.
Spot cobalt**.
But if we think about it the other way around, if cobalt ** is at a low level, will it make downstream players expand the amount of cobalt used in batteries?When will the upcycle of cobalt arrive?The author will take you to a ** today.
First, the player's performance is dismal and there is a shortage of funds
According to the author's understanding, the price of cobalt has basically reached the mineProduction cost lineIf it continues to fall endlessly, it is not impossible to force mining players to stop production.
When the industry as a whole is miserable, few players can be spared, such as Tengyuan Cobalt (301219), whose core products are cobalt chloride, cobalt sulfate and other cobalt salts, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of this year decreased year-on-year, its stock price is also the same as the performance, all the way.
Tengyuan Cobalt's share price.
In addition, industry leader Huayou Cobalt (603799) is also under financial pressure, as of the end of the third quarter of this year, its asset-liability ratio, and the book money funds are nearly less than the current liabilities30 billion yuan。In addition, Huayou Cobalt's inventory value increased compared to the end of the first three quarters of last yearThe problem of inventory backlog has also been criticized by many investors.
Affected by many factors, Huayou Cobalt's market value has evaporated in two years120 billion yuan
There is also Hanrui Cobalt (300618) recently announced the termination of the new establishment plan at the beginning of the year to invest 13The main reason for the $800 million project was also a shortage of funds, and the operating income and net profit in the first three quarters decreased year-on-year respectivelywith。But the actual controller is doing it at this timeHuge cash-outs
It seems that players in the cobalt industry are not doing well this year.
Second, the distribution of resources is uneven, and it is heavily dependent on imports
If we open the cobalt industry chain, the cobalt ore will be enriched and other processes to form a high-grade cobalt-containing ore (cobalt concentrate), and then it will be a variety of products in the cobalt midstream, and finally it will be mainly used inBatteryField. Of course, it can also be seen in fields such as superalloys.
Cobalt industry chain.
The more prominent feature of this industry is that the cost of conversion between different products of cobalt is high, which makes the consumption and inventory of cobalt basically a one-way flow, so it is also easier to have a local shortage or surplus of inventory. At present, it belongs to cobaltInventory is too highperiod.
And from the perspective of global cobalt resources, the reserves are about8.3 million tonsleft and right, of which the Congo (DRC) alone is almost occupiedHalf of the worldThe amount of resources can be seen to be very unevenly distributed. Although China's cobalt resources are less than 200,000 tons, and cobalt has basically relied on imports in recent years, we are a big country in refining cobalt (exceeding the total global output), which can also be seen in our demand for cobalt.
Many domestic players discovered this problem early and went to sea early to prospect for minerals. According to the author's statistics, many players such as Huayou Cobalt, China Molybdenum (603993), and China Nonferrous Metals have invested in copper and cobalt mines in the DRC, taking this opportunity to increase the sustainability of upstream resource security. Taking CMOC as an example, it indirectly holds an 80% stake in the TFM copper-cobalt mine, and its cobalt metal output in the first three quarters of this year was about3.70,000 tons
Third, internal and external troubles, unable to see the future
For the downstream demand for cobalt, the demand for power batteries and consumer batteries accounts for a high proportionAccording to the principle of grasping the main contradiction, let's look at the demand for cobalt in batteries.
Cobalt is mainly used in batteries for cathodes, as the global overlord of electric vehiclesTeslaIn recent years, efforts have been made to reduce the use of cobalt for lithium battery production, mainly due to the scarcity of cobalt ore in the world, which is also conducive to reducing the production of batteries and improving the energy density of batteries.
In addition, there is also a more important news recently that Japanese player Toshiba has developed a lithium-ion battery that does not contain the rare metal cobalt. In the battery test, the new battery can be charged in less than 5 minutes, Toshiba said it would fight inIn 2028Commercialization. Previously, Panasonic Energy has launched a cobalt content of lessbattery.
It can be said that Japanese players have always been at the forefront of technology in reducing the use of cobalt, which is an external concern for cobalt.
For the domestic battery installation this year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the first three quarters of this year was 1163GWh, accounting for ** volume；The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 772GWh, accounting for ** volume。Although it was still the world of ternary batteries in the past few years, with the demand for reimbursement and players to reduce costs and increase efficiency in recent years, lithium iron phosphate batteries have steadily occupied a high market share.
For example, a few days ago, GAC Aion announced that its full-stack self-developed and self-produced P58 microcrystalline super battery was off the assembly line, using lithium iron phosphate, in addition, ZEEKR Intelligence also officially released its first mass production800vThe lithium iron phosphate ultra-fast rechargeable battery will be equipped for the first time on the ZEEKR 007.
The disadvantage in cost has made ternary lithium go downhill in the past two years, and even for ternary batteries, the trend in recent years is high nickel and cobalt-free, which makes the situation of cobalt players extremely embarrassing.
In the future, according to the analysis of professional institutions, the oversupply of cobalt tracks will gradually expand from next year, and the supply of cobalt is expected to reach in 2025320,000 tons, the demand is only290,000 tonsIn this context, we really shouldn't expect too much from cobalt.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.