Knowledge explosion training camp
Author Avocado under the stars.
Edit Spinach's Starry Sky.
Typography Ice cream under the stars.
Last week, a "Notice" from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange seemed to give hope to all foreign trade players.
The notice said: Whether it is a region or a policy, it will expand and improve the level of cross-border ** and investment opening. In a word, open the door and embrace the world.
Affected by this news, the relevant **ushered in**. Cross-border e-commerce first brother (the first cross-border e-commerce company listed on A-shares),Cross-border connectivity(002640) directly straight up the limit.
*: Oriental Fortune Official Website - Cross-border Connect (as of December 20, 2023).
Policy support is naturally good, but will cross-border communication be the lucky one who will be favored again?
1. From the grassroots to the giants
Looking back on the past, Cross-border Communication has also performed a good story of "grassroots counterattack".
The predecessor of cross-border communication is the 100-round pants industry (all 100 pieces), byYang Jianxin(now the largest shareholder of Cross-border Connect) was founded. In 2011, it was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. At this time, the 100-yuan pants industry and cross-border e-commerce can be said to have no half-dime relationship. The income has also been there500 millionThe following sway, never able to break through.
*: Straight Flush iFind – operating income.
The one who changed his fate was a man calledXu Jiadongof returnees. In 2007, in the context that domestic e-commerce such as Jingdong had just started, and many people didn't even know what cross-border e-commerce was, Xu Jiadong founded the first domestic cross-border e-commerce platform in ShenzhenWorldwide Easy Shopping(Business model: Rely on Amazon for cross-border cross-border.)Exports
One wants to seek development, and the other wants to go public. In 2014, the two hit it off, and Baiyuan Pants successfully acquired Global Tesco. In 2015, it was renamed Cross-Border Pass. So far, a pants seller has turned into a "cross-border e-commerce" listed company.
In the second year of the transformation, the revenue of cross-border communication increased from 84.2 billion soared to 396.1 billion yuan. Taste the sweetness of cross-border communication, on the one hand, crazy mergers and acquisitions, on the other hand, massive distribution. In 2016, it successively acquired FocusExports3C businessPatosonand mainImportsMaternal and infant productsYouyi e-commerce。Since then, a troika has been formed: Global Tesco (58% revenue in 2018), Patosun (16% revenue in 2018) and Youyi E-commerce (26% revenue in 2018).
From 2015 to 2018, with the help of Amazon, the scale of cross-border communication skyrocketed. The revenue is the highest20 billion(2018 revenue of 21.5 billion), the highest market capitalization40 billion。What is the concept, another multinational e-commerce company listed on the US stock market during the same periodRantei gathers momentumlitb), and the market capitalization is only $2 billion.
*: Yiniu.com - cross-border pass.
However, the large-scale distribution model blindly pursues the scale, resulting in a large amount of inventory. The data shows that as of 2018, the company's inventory is as high as5.1 billionup to the total amount of liquid assets。Once the downstream changes, the huge amountInventoryIf it can't be monetized, it will be dragged down.
*: Straight Flush ifind — inventory.
Second, from the giant, to the grassroots
Sure enough, with the continuous change of platform rules, Amazon is paying more and more attention to specialization and branding, and more traffic is inclined to branded and boutique model sellers, and the traditional model allocates less and less traffic.
In 2019, Global Tesco's revenue was only 8.5 billion, down from 12.1 billion in 2018
*: Cross-border Connect 2019 Annual Report.
In addition, the brutal distribution of global Tesco has also come to an end. The huge inventory of this mine, still exploded. In 2019, nearly 2.8 billion inventories were impaired, and the bag was a loss. It directly led to the net profit and loss attributable to the parent company in the current yearHundred million.
Although, Cross-border has said that the impairment in 2019 is a one-time return to the historical burden and travel lightly. However, in the end, it failed to usher in an inflection point in performance. After 2020, Cross-border Connect continued to lose money. Global Tesco, the main revenue force, is also mired in arrears due to unsalable inventory.
*: Straight flush ifind - net profit attributable to the mother.
Under the predicament, cross-border communication must not continue to survive. In 2021, he first sold Patosun, and then filed for bankruptcy with Global Tesco. According to the company's announcement: In August 2023, Global Tesco will officially go bankrupt.
*: Company announcement (September 2, 2023).
So far, everGo to seaCross-border giants, one of the two main forces changed hands, and the other went bankrupt, and they have fallen to the bottom.
After learning the hard way, Cross-border also decided to transform to save itself, on the one hand, to optimize the inventory management process;On the other hand, focusing on the brand strategy, from coarse to fine, strengthen the construction of self-operated brands. However, since 2021 (when Global Tesco came out of the table), revenue has still declined;Although the loss of net profit attributable to the parent company has narrowed, it is still difficult to change the trend of loss.
After the broken arm, it is still difficult to survive.
Third, it is difficult to repay debts, and the reorganization is pending
If the business is not good, the cash flow will naturally not be good, how bad is it?
According to the company's announcement: In 2021, due to the company's failure to repay the due debts, it was sued by creditors in court, and the amount involved was aboutTen thousand. The former tens of billions of giants can't even afford 8 million at the moment.
*: Company announcement (May 16, 2023).
Three years have passed, and the creditor has not yet returned, and the creditor has to retreat and apply for cross-border connectivityReform。If not, the 8 million arrears may eventually come to naught.
The so-called reorganization is to give you a chance to save yourself. But whether it can become a turning point, the key is to have a plan to save yourself.
At present, the revenue of cross-border trading mainly comes from the import of maternal and infant products (such as milk powder, etc.). However, the data shows that in 2022, the number of newborns in China will be 9.56 million, and the number of experts will be 7 million to 8 million in 2023. And according to the 2023 semi-annual report, the gross profit margin of maternal and child products is only, amortizing the period cost (period expense rateThe whole one is beyond his means.
In addition, its own brand ZAFUL (European and American young women's swimwear, etc.) is another straw. However, Zaful, which has high hopes, has a tendency to go downhill.
According to the data, the average monthly active number of Zaful's online operations (offline promotion and harvesting of users, online sales) is 481990,000 people, a decrease from the same period in 2022Half。And the operating entity Sateng is still in the stage of burning money and losing money, counting on Zaful to save his life, there is a long way to go.
*: Cross-border Connect 2023 semi-annual report.
*: 2022 semi-annual report of Cross-border Connect.
To sum up, under the current situation, the author can't think of any good way to save himself, and I don't know if there can be any tricks for cross-border communicationIf not, the outcome will inevitably be bankrupt and liquidated.
Ten years have passed, and the cross-border high-rise buildings have risen, and now they are in the dust. The road ahead is long and unknown.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.