Under the multi-faceted attack, the pig price peak season is not prosperous, and the prospect of the pig price on New Year's Day is clouded.
Pig prices in December are gradually coming to an end, and recently, pig prices have trended"The peak season is not prosperous"Although, under the influence of low temperature and cold wave weather, the south ** gradually cashed in, and the pig price was short-lived**855%！However, approaching the winter solstice, pig prices did not rise but fell, and under the attack of many parties, the average price of live pigs accumulated **051 yuan kg, ** fell to 1421 yuan kg!
According to the agency's analysis, the factors supporting the recent weakness in pig prices are roughly as follows.
On the one hand, the pig ** loose, this month the pressure of commercial pig slaughter is too great, before the pig price was short **1472 yuan kg, pig prices in some parts of East China briefly rose above 16 yuan kg, pig subscription sentiment is getting stronger, the northern region cross-regional transfer of live pigs to the southwest region increases, the influx of foreign standard pigs in the pickled concentration area increases, although the operating rate of slaughterhouses continues to rise, but the purchase of pigs is not difficult. Some slaughterhouses still have a shutdown plan, and there is a strong price reduction mentality
On the other hand, due to the rebound in pig prices in the early stage, the ex-factory price of white pig slaughterhouses has been raised, the resistance of downstream merchants has increased, the surplus in the wholesale market has increased, the difficulty of slaughtering white pig slaughterhouses has increased, and the debt of fresh to frozen has increased!
Superimposed, the average slaughter weight of pigs has increased, the number of large and medium-sized pigs has increased at the end of the year, and the pork production capacity has increased significantly, while the domestic frozen pork delivery rate is at a high level, and the market supply is strong and the demand is weak. After the winter solstice, the demand for fat pigs gradually weakened, and the number of large and medium-sized pigs increased at the end of the year, which further exacerbated the downward pressure on pig prices
Therefore, under the squeeze of many parties, the pig price is not prosperous in the peak season, and at present, the price of pigs has stabilized at 1421 yuan kg, pig price is excessive** is still in the stage of secondary warning level. On December 25, the official storage 230,000 tons, but at the same time reserves 230,000 tons, which also suppressed the bullish sentiment in the market and lacked support for pig prices!
However, judging from the feedback from the grassroots, the weak trend of pig prices will either come to an end, and there are still 2 good news in the market, and pig prices are still there before New Year's Day"Look up"The ** trend, the price increase will not"**"！
First, the mentality of terminal creation has changed, and the confidence in raising prices has been enhanced!Due to the low price of pigs, pig fattening general losses, before the first farm panic selling pigs, intensified the trend of pig prices, but with the low price of pigs, the market resistance to selling pigs at a lower price has become strong, large-scale pig enterprises take the lead in controlling the weight of pigs slaughtered, the atmosphere of price stabilization is gradually thickening, the wait-and-see mentality of the farm may be aggravated, and the pressure on pigs has been reduced
Secondly, the demand for pork consumption continues to increase, and the current consumer market has two supports, on the one hand, the centralized curing in the south is still continuing, and the demand for pork consumption is positive, on the other hand, near the end of the year, the demand for stocking during the New Year's Day holiday is gradually increasing, and the enthusiasm of residents to buy pork should increase!Under the support of this factor, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises continues to rise, and the current operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is close to the level of 41%, which is also conducive to the recovery of pig prices!
Therefore, under the support of bullish sentiment and increased demand, the author believes that in the next 3 to 5 days, pig prices will still be dominated by a strong center of gravity, but considering the pressure of reducing the number of pigs, and the expectation of incremental fattening of some pig enterprises, the rebound space of pig prices is relatively limited
Multi-party matchmaking, pig prices are not prosperous in the peak season, and pig prices on New Year's Day are the best"falls"？"2 "Good news!What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, ** on the Internet, the content is for reference only!