The growth of the Chinese population is not special
In 1952, the number of Chinese was 568.91 million (average annual population data, not year-end population data, the same below), accounting for nearly a quarter of the world's population, due to the British Indian colony in South Asia, China became the world's most populous country. Before the British colony of India**, the British Raj or the British Empire was the most populous country at that time. It can be seen that China during World War II was not the world's most populous country, and the British Empire was both the world's largest country and the world's most populous country.
Due to the end of the war, the birth rate, infant survival rate and the increase in the life expectancy of the adult population, as well as the gradual popularization of Western medical technology in China, have significantly increased the life expectancy, which has jointly promoted the growth rate of the Chinese population and ended China's population stagnation in the past century. In 1953, the growth rate of Chinese population reached 2194%, fluctuating to 2 in 1954394% (22.32 million births in this year, 13.92 million population growth, 8.4 million deaths), the population growth rate in the next two years decreased slightly (the number of births in these two years was 19.65 million and 19.61 million respectively, which shows that the population growth rate in these two years declined, mainly due to the decline in the number of births), reaching 2565% of the population growth rate is a small peak.
The number of births in 1957 was 21.38 million (population growth of 15.94 million and deaths of 5.44 million), although not as high as in 1954, but the mortality rate was lower in that year, resulting in a large population growth. This was a year in which mortality rates fell rapidly, and although GDP per capita purchasing power did not grow rapidly, the level of real GDP per capita was already 38 percent higher than in 195285%, the per capita real GDP has increased significantly in just a few years, and the national living standard or medical standard should be significantly improved, which will lead to a decrease in mortality.
In 1958, population growth began to be affected by the agricultural cooperative movement, such as a slight decline in the birth rate (more than two million fewer births than in 1957) due to excessive peasant servitude, which led to a slight decline in population growth.
Large-scale cooperative or collectivization measures, the disintegration of agricultural production activities based on the family unit, led to the reduction of the marginal rate of return on labor of individual peasants to almost zero, brought about a wide range of unproductive and irresponsible labor, as well as serious over-servitude, such as large-scale iron and steel smelting, and also interfered with normal agricultural production activities in rural areas, and these factors together led to a sharp decline in agricultural productivity and a significant shrinkage of agricultural production results, which had a great impact on population growth.
In 1959, the situation was much more severe, with excessive labor and malnutrition leading to a marked decline in the birth rate, and the population growth rate increased from 2 in the previous year483% down to 1955%。Then in the terrible year of 1960, overwork and starvation caused the birth rate to drop to a low point, although there was still the old bottom, for example, the material wealth accumulated by the ancestors and the strong body before, while maintaining a low birth rate, the unnatural death was not serious, and the population growth rate fell to 0159%。These population growth is coming from cities where hunger is not too severe, and population growth in rural areas has already begun to decline, and in some areas it is significantly negative.
We have the impression that the situation in 1961 had already begun to improve, but the population growth data showed that 1961 was the most painful year, with a negative population growth of 101%, which is the result of a lower birth rate and a higher abnormal mortality rate. Perhaps it was because people's healthy bodies were overdrawn in 1960, and in 1961, when the situation did not continue to deteriorate or improved slightly, the abnormal mortality rate increased.
In 1958, the population grew by 15.83 million, with 18.89 million births and 3.06 million deaths. In 1959, the population grew by 12.77 million, with 16.35 million births and 3.58 million deaths. In 1960, the population grew by 1.06 million, with 14.02 million births and 12.96 million deaths. In 1961, the population grew by 6.74 million, with 9.49 million births and 13.48 million deaths. In 1962, the population grew by 5.44 million, with 24.51 million births and 19.07 million deaths. I did not expect that the number of deaths in 1958 and 1959 was so small, which shows that the standard of living or medical care at that time was still satisfactory, and the years before the "Great Leap Forward" should have been a period of relatively comfortable life for peasants before the reform and opening up. Of course, it also has to do with the population data used, which is different in the estimated number of deaths due to the mid-year population data rather than the year-end population data. I didn't expect the number of deaths in 1962 to be so large, and this is related to the fact that the average population data for 1962 was used, and if the population data at the end of 1962 were used, the population growth would have been larger, and the estimated number of deaths would have decreased. It should also be related to the higher mortality rate in the first months of 1962.
The system of "reserved land" (a little arable land that rural families can freely dispose of) in which rural families have the right to decide freely and the labor or distribution system in which the production team is relatively close to the performance of the work have become the mainstream, which has significantly increased the enthusiasm of the peasants for labor, and the effect of rural production has improved markedly, bringing about a marked improvement in the rural situation in 1962, with a marked decline in the abnormal mortality rate, a gradual recovery of the birth rate, and a return to 0 in population growth824%。
In 1963 the population growth rate was normalized, reaching 2489% (29.34 million births in this year, making it the highest number of births in China). In 1966, the population growth rate reached 2The peak is 826%, which is arguably the highest recorded population growth rate in China. However, compared to other countries in the same period, such population growth is nothing, and the peak population growth rate in some countries is significantly larger than this.
By 1974, population growth had fallen to 2087%, which is actually a very symbolic year, which means that the peak of compensatory births of the population that began after the "Great Leap Forward" is over. In 1975, population growth fell to 1783%, which fell further to 1 in 1977372%, which fell to the bottom level of 1 in 1980 at this stage262%。Since then, perhaps due to the coming of age at the peak of population growth after the Great Leap Forward, or perhaps due to the propaganda and fear of the one-child family planning policy, the birth rate has entered a phase of gradual increase, for example, in 1981, when the population growth rate increased slightly to 1289%, which increased to 1 in 1982483%, after which the fluctuation of population growth rate increased to 1623% of the reform and opening up has reached its highest peak so far. Since then, the population growth rate has been declining year after year, falling to 1507%, down to 1 in 1991345%, down to 1 by 1997029%, this is actually a year of turning point in population growth, and the growth rate of Chinese population will bid farewell to the state of medium and high-speed growth. In 1998, the population growth rate fell to 0The low speed level of 964% is already lower than the growth rate of the US population.
The downward trend in population growth has been rapid and steady, falling to 0 by 2009Within 5%. Probably due to the pressure of **, the intensity of population control is declining, for example, the implementation of two single two children, and the implementation of a single second child, the key is that this loose trend of population policy, the pressure of population control from superiors to subordinates has been greatly reduced, which has led to the actual population control policy is much weaker, prompting the population growth rate in 2011 to slightly ** to 0528%, and after two years, it returned to 0Within 5%. This also shows that the growth momentum of the Chinese population is already at the end of the strong crossbow, that is, if fertility is released, the recovery of population growth will not be large. China is heading for stagnation or negative population growth, and no amount of encouragement for childbearing will be able to change this trend. Although it is difficult to change the fate of population stagnation or negative population growth, the degree of negative population growth can be reduced by encouraging fertility policies.
In 1955, the Chinese population exceeded 600 million, with an average annual growth rate of 13.25 million from 1953 to 1955. In 1965, the Chinese population exceeded 700 million, and the population increased by 106.53 million in the 10 years from 1956 to 1965, with an average annual growth rate of 10 million. In 1970, the population exceeded 800 million, or 818.32 million, with an average annual growth rate of 20.63 million from 1966 to 1970. In 1974, the population exceeded 900 million, or 900.35 million, with an average annual growth rate of 20.51 million from 1971 to 1974. In 1982, the population exceeded 1 billion, or 100863 million, and from 1975 to 1982, the average annual growth rate was 13.54 million. In 1988, the population exceeded 1.1 billion, or 110163, and grew at an average annual rate of 15.5 million from 1983 to 1988. In 1995, the population exceeded 1.2 billion, or 120486 million, with an average annual growth rate of 14.75 million from 1989 to 1995. In 2005, the population exceeded 1.3 billion, or 130372 million, with an average annual growth rate of 9.89 million from 1996 to 2005. In 2013, it reached 135737 million, with an average annual growth rate of 6.71 million from 2006 to 2013. Recently, the population growth rate and growth volume have fallen to a low level, and the population will begin to grow negatively in 2022, and with the aging of the population born in the 50s of the 20th century, the mortality rate will increase significantly, and the population growth rate will further decline. By around 2040, China will have 20 million normal deaths a year, and its population will shrink by several million a year.
After World War II, the growth rate of Chinese population was at the lowest level in the world, lower than the average growth rate of the world's population, and as a result, the number of Chinese population fell from a quarter of the world to less than a fifth in 2013.