The electricity consumption of the whole society and its changes are the most important indicators that can objectively reflect the economic operation. This is also the basic plate of the photovoltaic industry.
Today, at the same time that the world's top photovoltaic entrepreneurs are sitting and discussing, the National Energy Administration released data on the electricity consumption of the whole society in November: the electricity consumption of the whole society in the month was 763 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 116%！In November this year, the total electricity consumption of the whole society was 8,367.8 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 63%。In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 117.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 115%；Electricity consumption in the secondary industry100 million kWh, year-on-year growth；The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 1,512 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 113%。
Electricity demand, especially industrial electricity consumption, is still growing at a considerable rate, and COP28 is difficult but finally at the last moment to reach a consensus in the UAE to get rid of fossil fuels - whether it is electricity demand or power transition, new energy still has a long slope and thick snow. Therefore, even if the module has fallen to nine cents, even if the days are already a little difficult, whether it is for the industry or the macroeconomic environment, it is not appropriate to be overly pessimistic.
There is no overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry, at least a phased overcapacity, and there is almost no debate, because the extreme ** of modules has been killed to more than eight cents. Moreover, after breaking down 1 yuan, the module did not stop falling, but showed an accelerated downward state. This can only show that the photovoltaic ** war is far from low, and the photovoltaic knockout competition is extremely tragic.
Here's a set of data, since 2022, China's photovoltaic industry has added rapid new capacity: 4.4 million tons of polysilicon, 670GW of wafers, 1,400GW of cells, and 900GW of modules.
In response to this round of overcapacity, Gao Jifan, Zhong Baoshen, and Shi Zhengrong expressed their insights from their own perspectives. The following content is based on the content of the speech of the photovoltaic boss, and the carbon number has been slightly supplemented and abridged.
The three bigwigs are all right, and they agree with Dr. Shi's point of view, the industry is very good, don't change careers. As the old saying came back from the beginning of the year, pessimists are close to being right, but optimists are close to the future. You can't outrun the bear, but you have to outrun your opponents.
In the words of Li Xiande, it is simplerThat's it!
We have also done a preliminary survey on the new expansion of production this year, from cells to wafers to polysilicon, but each link is different, and in general, there are about 400 500 GW of new production in a year, maybe more polysilicon, and about a little less wafers, which is about the same number of cells.
What is this number?It is cumulative, and all the volume before last year is not as much as this number, because the entire production capacity was only more than 300 GW and 400 GW last year, so the new volume in 2023 will be more than the cumulative amount, which will inevitably cause the so-called short-term one-stage production capacityAffluence, huh?Caused a**fast**. Catch up with the carbon number comment: Note that Mr. Gao used the word "wealth" here, not "excess". The expression is different, the nature is completely different. )
What is the reason for this?Because there are four main driving forces for photovoltaic expansion:
The first company is willing to invest, because it wants to develop through investment, which is the hand of the market, which is normal.
However, on this basis, there are several other important forcesThe first place is to developto support enterprises to invest. In this case, the motivation of the company is different from that of overseas. This has led to a much faster production capacity. Second, in recent years, the capital market has also supported the strategic emerging industry of photovoltaics, including the strong support of private equity, further stimulated the overheating of the photovoltaic industry. In addition, the state encourages financial institutions to support and serve the real economy, which has intensified the expansion of production capacity. Third, cross-border photovoltaics in all walks of life.
Under the superposition of various factors, the investment heat of China's photovoltaic industry is twice as high under normal circumstances, but this round we are 16 times. Of course, we have begun to encounter some situations now, and we have seen that the capital market has restricted what cross-border non-main businesses are, and reasonable adjustments have been made to some new financing, etc., and they have begun to heat down.
Everywhere may still be in the middle of such a process.
Financial institutions are actually the largest investment in the photovoltaic industry, and the current investment of financial institutions in the photovoltaic industry is now in a process of judgment and is being observed. Therefore, we also hope that financial institutions can actively understand the current situation of the industry as soon as possible, and can rationally and reasonably support the development of the industry without incurring risks. In addition, the enterprise itself still has to develop anyway, and the local government must also reasonably support it.
I hope that starting next year, the industry will at least be able to decline and cool down under the relatively hot situation, but we must also prevent one thing, that is, some enterprises, especially cross-border photovoltaic enterprises, will not have major risks in the capital chain next year. In addition, financial institutions should avoid one-size-fits-all, resulting in overcooling of the industry.
So, if it's overheating, you need to let it cool down, but you don't want it to be too cold. In the future, the photovoltaic industry will be able to achieve sustainable development by avoiding these situations of overcooling, overheating, and alternating between cold and heat as much as possible in the past.
I think that the current phased overcapacity of the photovoltaic industry is essentially caused by the allocation of non-market resources.
Why?In the several aspects that Mr. Gao just talked about, it should be said that if you invest in a project, the most essential thing is that its resources are not market-oriented.
Resource allocation, that is, many of our enterprises are developed through capital market financing. Therefore, the capital market seems to be completely market-oriented, but China's capital market is a little different.
Because you can watch any ** issued by China, when everyone subscribes, I believe that 90% of shareholders don't know what to buy**. What he believes in is the approval of **. That is to say, in our planned economy in the past few decades, we have protected the people very well and the investors very well, and we have made him absolutely believe that I will not lose money if I subscribe. This is formed in the last few decades, just like my money is deposited in the bank, the bank will not go bankrupt, it has been guaranteed.
Although the state has now said that the money deposited in the bank will be guaranteed at most 500,000 yuan, in fact, when the people are deposited, they never think that the bank will really go bankrupt and there will be risks, and they will not lose my money. The common people don't know this. This is the long-term inertia of our country.
So in fact, the capital market is in China, and I think it's also a non-market-oriented allocation of resources. Looking back, two years ago, when we were discussing the participating companies in the photovoltaic industry, there were only about 20 listed companies at that time, and today we will sort out more than 130. We have to think about how many companies have come in in the past two years, which is one thing.
On the other hand, it is precisely because of the heat of the capital market that it has promoted the entry of some private placements like Mr. Gao just saidAfter the private placement enters, it can enter the capital market, and investors can withdraw and cash out, so it superimposes this part of the investment overheating. In addition, the willingness of the local ** to attract investment is superimposed. Therefore, these forces, the power of finance and the support of local governments, it has accelerated the expansion of the industry.
What is PV capacity expansion in a sense?People who spend money don't spend their own moneyI think that's the most essential. And then how to solve it, I think it will take time.
I think what Mr. Gao and Mr. Zhong just talked about the reasons for the expansion of production, and I fully agree with it.
However, I am still very optimistic overall. Because how to say, why do so many people enter the photovoltaic industry?In this industry, in fact, everyone thinks that in such an uncertain situation of the entire global economic situation, the energy transition and the general trend of climate change are certain, so everyone will come in.
So for the short-term and phased situation of China's photovoltaic, I believe it will also lead to our industry becoming more and more rational. We all say that from teenagers to young adults, now we may be entering adulthood and becoming more and more rational. The capital market, through such a market, will also see more and more clearly the law of industrial development.
But I'm sure it may take time. For example,Outdated technology, old production capacity will be eliminated, advanced production capacity will be retained, will continue to develop.
I believe there are many opportunities for innovation in the PV industry. Therefore, we must realize the vision of carbon neutrality that can be installed and can be installed. In the past, we solved very few problems. We have now only solved the problem of the basics, the problem of needs, the problem of survival.
After that, there was a high-level demand for the product. Now that we have solved the low-level demand, and then we will solve the high-level demand, I believe there are still many opportunities here. So, you don't have to change careers.
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