Daqin Railway, railway transportation service, mainly transporting coal.
I am optimistic about the prosperity of the coal industry in the next few years, so the Daqin Railway, as a supporting transportation service, will not have a good time, after all, the landlord's family has no surplus grain, and it will not give the workers a good **.
Of course, the fundamentals of the Daqin Railway are still very stable, even if the revenue and profits decline, as for the cliff-like exaggerated decline, it is more likely to be a warm boiled frog slowly**.
As for dividends, it is not easy to stabilize them, because there is still the existence of Daqin's convertible bonds.
I started to intervene in August 2019 with an initial ** price of 749 yuan. Clearance in December 2023. Probably only got an annualized yield of about 8%, which is basically earning ** interest. The buying, trading and selling during the review period is still due to the fact that the high and low switching is not done well.
In this round of new positions, regarding the personal ** point, because I will not hold it as a long-term **, it is more a dynamic holding of high and low bands, so I observe from the short-term stock price fluctuations, PB, market value lows, and 10-year returns.
From the short-term stock price fluctuations, I think Daqin Railway is reasonable** at 76 yuan, it is best to be able to be able to 8Sell above $5. And the ** point aspect, 6It is relatively safe to intervene below $5, and even if the dividend decreases in the future, then the dividend yield is guaranteed to be at least 5%.
Looking at the lows of PB in recent years, the lowest valuation is 07PB, net assets per share are expected to be 865 yuan, corresponding to the stock price of 605 yuan.
Judging from the low market value in recent years, the market value is 900-100 billion, and the corresponding stock price is 586~6.51 yuan.
From the perspective of the logic of 10-year return to investment, the net profit in 10 years is 120.9 billion, corresponding to the market value of 120.9 billion, and the corresponding stock price is 786 yuan.
In addition, the current conversion price of Daqin's convertible bonds is 622 yuan.
For this round of positioning, it is planned at 651 yuan to start a position, at 622 yuan began to be heavily positioned, falling below 586 yuan, I'm willing to be brainless**. Of course, if the stock price rises to 8When it is more than 5 yuan, I will still gradually withdraw and give the final profit to those who need it more.
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