PV has entered an inflection point of fate.
Written by |Produced by Theatre |Since the beginning of this year, surplus has become the main background of the photovoltaic industry. Since the third quarter of 2023, the performance differentiation of first- and second-tier enterprises, the redistribution of interests in the industrial chain, the battle for battery technology routes, and the competition for the cost of the first line have once again gathered in the photovoltaic industry. In the competition, all kinds of photovoltaic enterprises have quietly completed the differentiation of fate, and the scale, technical route and competitive strategy of the enterprise have become the key to victory. From a data perspective alone, some companies have achieved "counterattacks", such as selectionTOPCON Technology Roadmapof companies ushered in revenue growth in the third quarterSome cross-border enterprisesSuccessfully enter the profitability stage. But looking backFour quarters of data, more businesses have fallen into the quagmire.
Changes in the third quarter
Looking back at the past four quarters, market pessimism has spread, becoming a shackle to corporate performance growth, and most companies' operating income has reached a high point in the second quarter of 2023, and has entered a downward channel in the third quarter. These include first-tier polysilicon and wafer giants TCL Zhonghuan, LONGi Green Energy, Daqo Energy, Tongwei, as well as some cell module giants, such as Risen Energy and Aiko.
The third quarter was an inflection point. At the third quarter of 2023 results briefing, Li Zhenguo, general manager of LONGi Green Energy, said: "In recent years, the market will still have a growth rate of 50% or 60% at this level of 100 GW, or even 200 or 300 GW, which is indeed relatively rare, and we believe that it will be difficult to continue to grow at this rate in the future." "Due to the high fixed costs of photovoltaic enterprises, slight changes in operating income often bring huge changes in profits, so the attributable net profit of enterprises can expose more problems. In the third quarter, except for a few cell and module companies, it was eatenTopCon Technology Roadmap Bonus, net profit has increased,Basically, the whole line is red, especially polysilicon companies Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Daqo Energy. According to the data, Daqo Energy's net profit in the third quarter of 2023 is only 68.9 billion yuan, even less than half of the second quarter of 2023. In addition, some companies appearedLoss again or loss expansion, such as iKang Technology, King Kong Photovoltaic, Haiyuan Composites and so on. 
Four quarters of continuous differentiation
The differentiation of PV companies is not limited to a certain period of time. In 2021, the sharp rise in polysilicon prices led to the differentiation of the profitability of enterprises in the whole chain, a trend that continued until the end of 2022.
In the four quarters, the performance of first- and second-tier enterprises continued to diverge, showing a pattern of stronger and weaker and weaker. 
In the buyer's market of overcapacity, who controls the cost, who controls the future, leading enterprises have sustained profitability because of excellent cost control capabilities, and the prospect of second- and third-tier enterprises is only to stop production and maintenance. This phenomenon is first reflected in the polysilicon sector, with more than three companies suspending production and maintenance in the third quarter. 
There are also battery and module links.
The situation of first- and second-line differentiation, but it is more obvious that the demand for TOPCon has driven the performance of related enterprises to explode, while heterojunction enterprises are still facing severe tests. After making a profit in the first two quarters of this year, Akcome Technology re-entered a state of loss in the third quarter, and according to the annual report information, the operating income in the third quarter was only 89.5 billion yuan, while attributable net profit was minus 0$2.6 billion. Although from the first three quarters as a whole, iKang Technology won 0200 million yuan attributable to net profit, but mainly from 1789880,000 yuan**Subsidies and non-operating incomeReach 223560,000 yuan, non-operating incomeIt mainly refers to the amount of repayment of Haida Group's debt guarantee losses recognized in the reporting period。King Kong PV, which also bets on heterojunction, achieved minus 0 in the first three quarters of this year43, minus 063 and minus 067 attributable net profit. Among them, the operating income in the third quarter was only 08.5 billion yuan. It is worth noting that King Kong PV terminated the fixed increase and expansion plan this year. There is a ** as an individual investor to consult the office of the board of directors of King Kong PV and ask whether the company will withdraw from the field of heterojunction cells. The office clearly replied that there are no plans to exit or reduce HJT PV cells. Because the company has only been involved in this business since 2021, temporary losses are normal;On the other hand, the company has invested about 2 billion in this project, and the market prospect is still uncertainExit is not the optimal solution。King Kong PV is still optimistic about the future heterojunction (HJT) photovoltaic cell market for a long time. 
In the first three quarters of this year, the polysilicon sector gradually entered the cold winter season. With the continuous expansion of the advanced production capacity of leading enterprises and the continuous entry of new players, the imbalance between supply and demand has become prominent, and even the leading companies have not been able to maintain their performance. According to the financial report information, in the first three quarters, Daqo New Energy's revenue was 1287.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4781%；The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was about 511.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6609%；Among them, the revenue in the third quarter fell sharply by 87% year-on-year61%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies plummeted by 92 year-on-year53%。Daqo New Energy stated in the announcement that the company's performance plummeted, mainly due to the impact of cyclical inventory consumption in the industry and the successive release of new production capacity, and the significant increase in polysilicon supply, resulting in a decline in polysilicon. At the same time, in the first three quarters, affected by the decline in polysilicon**, the scale of revenue declined, and the net profit attributable to the parent company declined. Daqo is not the only "victim" of the decline in polysilicon**. According to the third quarterly report released by Tongwei Co., Ltd., in the first three quarters of this year, the company achieved operating income of 11142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 915%；The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 1630.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2498%。In the third quarter, the company's operating income decreased by 10% year-on-year52%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies fell 6811%。You must know that in the fourth quarter of 2022, the net profit of these two companies is about 4 billion yuan, far exceeding the 12 percent of module leader JinkoSolarNet profit of 600 million yuan. For example, Daqo Energy announced on October 30 that it would postpone the 100,000-ton high-purity polysilicon project, which was originally scheduled to be put into operation at the end of 2023, to the second quarter of 2024On the other hand, it is reflected in the collapse of the industrial chain**, on October 12, the silicon industry branch announced that the monocrystalline silicon wafer**, M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers have been reduced to 278 yuan tablets, a decrease of up to 10%. Moreover, with the further development of polysilicon, the lowest price of wafers of this size has reached 22 yuan tablets. Components are frequent and equally noteworthy. After falling below 1 yuan watt, the module single watt** has not stopped falling. On December 6, China Nuclear Energy's module bid was opened, and 0872 kW**. However, there are also businesses that have done itBucking the trend, which includes JinkoSolar. JinkoSolar's third quarter report for 2023 shows that the company's main revenue is 8509.7 billion yuan, an increase of 61 percent year-on-year25%；Net profit attributable to the parent company was 635.4 billion yuan, an increase of 279 percent year-on-year14%；Deduct non-net profit of 604.7 billion yuan, an increase of 298 percent year-on-year94%；In the third quarter of 2023, the company's single-quarter main revenue was 3147.2 billion yuan, an increase of 62 percent year-on-year53%；The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 251.1 billion yuan, an increase of 225 year-on-year79% also includes Trina Solar. The company's operating income in the first three quarters was 8111.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3938%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 507.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11134%；The non-net profit attributable to the parent was 512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12849%；Among them, in the third quarter of 2023, the company achieved operating income of 3173.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4125%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 153.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3567%。What they have in common is that they have chosen the Topcon battery, which has been in rapid demand since the beginning of this year. It is worth mentioning that Longgeni, which was once the head of the four giants of battery modules, chose a more long-term BC technology route, and its performance declined.