Text|Bohu Finance An Xiao.In 2023, the sports shoes and apparel industry will usher in the development trend of "two heavens".
On the one hand, domestic sports brands are accelerating their awareness with the help of national tide, and the industry penetration rate and market scale are also steadily increasing.
According to the research report of CICC Qixin, the penetration rate of China's sports shoes and apparel industry has increased from 8 in 20168% to 13 in 20226% ；The market size of the industry has increased from 221.5 billion yuan in 2017 to 415.7 billion yuan in 2022, and is expected to increase to 453.4 billion yuan in 2023. At the same time, the industry is also developing in the direction of verticalization, segmentation and digitalization.
On the other hand, the upward pressure on domestic sports brands is becoming more and more obvious.
In recent years, although domestic sports brands have risen and repelled overseas brands, and their products have gradually moved towards mid-to-high-end, the inventory problem of domestic sports brands has become prominent under the decline of the entire consumer market. At the same time, the stock prices of leading brands such as Anta and Li Ning have been ** this year, and the news of "national tide failure" and "collapse of domestic products" has gradually spread in the industry.
The tide goes and goes, where is the tide of the sports shoes and apparel industry in 2023?Now let's take stock of the development trend of the sports shoes and apparel industry this year.
01 The national tide "cools down", and the sports brand "survives the winter" Over the years, the sports shoes and clothing industry can be regarded as the most able to borrow the "east wind" of the national tide.
In 2021, Li Ning will take advantage of the "national tide" positioning performance to rise sharply and rank second in China's sports shoes and clothing;The following year, Anta's revenue beat the overseas brand Nike and won the first place in China's sports shoes and apparelLast year, Hongxing Erke went out of the circle through the donation event and rose by the wind of the national tide, and the sales rose again and again.
Anta and Li Ning have even been crowned with the title of "the light of domestic products". But the 2023 year of these "lights of domestic products" is not going well.
Since the beginning of this year, the Hong Kong stock sports sector has experienced many collective **.
The reason for the cooling of the entire sports footwear and apparel industry is that the global economy is in a downward cycle, the consumption environment is showing a weak recovery, and consumers prefer cost-effective products.
This year's overturn of Huaxizi in the beauty industry has confirmed the problem of matching the quality of domestic products, and it is not a brand that has been promoting the positioning of domestic products to take advantage of the "national tide" to go up. Returning to the sports shoes and clothing industry, Li Ning, who has the title of "the light of domestic products", has also been questioned by many consumers in recent years by taking advantage of the price increase of national tide products. It can be seen that consumers have their own scales in their hearts.
In addition, the trend of "cooling down the national tide" has made the footwear and clothing manufacturers who relied on the "national tide" to write high-end stories in the past need a headache how to sell the goods.
In the first half of this year, Anta's inventory turnover days were 124 days, a decrease of 21 days from the previous year, but the inventory was still as high as 6.5 billion yuanOn the side of Li Ning, in the first half of 2023, the inventory will reach 21200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 725%, and the number of days of inventory turnover increased from 55 days in 2022 to 57 days.
Clearing inventory with large discounts** is a common tactic in the industry. Nike, as the industry leader, has dropped the discount of some single products to 5% off this year, and Li Ning even shouted out the price reduction propaganda of "4% off" and "more than 3% off".
However, judging from the performance of important nodes such as Double 11, even if brands offer discounts, the effect is still limited. Anta's management has said that the weather in the fourth quarter was unexpectedly warm, and the industry experienced short-term inventory pressure, and it is estimated that retail discounts in the fourth quarter will expand year-on-year.
In the face of the "endless ups and downs" of the stock price, brands have started a battle to defend the stock price this year. Among them, Li Ning has carried out shareholder increase and repurchase plans for many timesAnta is trying to boost its performance and stock price by finding a third growth curve, and cultivating brands such as Cologne and Descente.
In addition, unlisted sports shoes and clothing brands have been hovering on the edge of capital. For example, Peak and Zhongqiao Sports have submitted prospectuses many times over the years. Among them, in March this year, Zhongqiao submitted a prospectus, and there was no movement afterwards.
For consumers, domestic products are Chinese local enterprises, but Guochao has many requirements for product quality and quality for domestic enterprises, which must meet the expectations of consumers.
However, in the special period of the economic downturn, the gust of national tide is becoming more and more difficult to borrow, and the sports brands with the title of "the light of domestic products" should also seriously think about how to develop in the future.
02 The battle of "ascending" has begun, and various moves have come out This year, the state and local governments have also continuously increased the policy of "expanding domestic demand" and "promoting consumption", which is conducive to the recovery of the entire apparel consumption industry market. At the same time, the industry has also seen a new direction of specialization, segmentation and high-end.
Whether or not they can seize the growth opportunities in vertical segments such as outdoor, women's, and children's has become the key for brands to seek an inflection point and grasp growth.
Taking Anta as an example, this year, Anta has successively acquired two major brands, Yoga Alternative Maia and Women's Sportswear Maia Active, in order to expand the company's layout in the women's sports market. Fila, who underperformed last year, is rejuvenated after transitioning to professional sports. In the first half of this year, FILA did it again, achieving revenue of 122300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 135%。
The early layout of the outdoor track has become the highlight of Anta's financial report in the first half of the year, and other brand segments, including Descente and Kolon Sports, have revenue of 32500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 776%；The joint venture's revenue in the first half of the year increased by 37% year-on-year2% to 132700 million yuan.
Xtep, which is also a multi-brand, is slightly different from Anta, and there is only one segment that Xtep wants to layout: the running shoe market.
In 2022, Xtep announced a new brand strategic positioning of "world-class Chinese running shoes", and plans to invest 5 billion yuan in the next 10 years to help China's road running business. Although Xtep has also acquired four major international brands in recent years, Saucony, Myle, Gasway and Paladin, none of them have become the company's main business. Therefore, Xtep mainly aims to compete with various brands by deepening the running shoes market.
The single-brand Li Ning incubates products in various sub-categories under the main brand to do differentiated competition. For example, in 2019, Li Ning and X-Girl jointly launched the "Girl Gang" series of products, and last year launched the "Kneading Soft Pants" and "Pretty Pants" series of products for women's yoga and training scenes.
However, from a strategic point of view, Li Ning, the development of a single brand, is destined to have one of the biggest weaknesses, too dependent on the main brand, once the main brand development is not smooth, other areas are bound to be more affected. Coupled with the cooling of the national tide mentioned above, Li Ning's share price was the most severely hit. Citi Research reported that considering Li Ning's single-brand business model, its revenue growth in 2024 is expected to be slower than that of Taobo and Anta.
Another trend brought about by the segmentation of the track is product upgrading, and the newly developed products between the companies are becoming more and more "involuted" in technology and technology.
For example, the hottest running shoe track in outdoor sports includes various types of running shoes such as entry and racing grades. In order to meet the needs of this market segmentation, brands have begun to promote various new technology products and related product matrices.
In the racing running shoes, everyone is vying to launch their own carbon plate running shoes, supercritical foam materials, carbon fiber technology, breathable and thin fabrics and other technologies have almost become the standard configuration of this category, at present, Anta has "nitrogen" technology, Li Ning has "" technology, Hongxing Erke has "Qi" technology blessing.
According to the data, in the first half of 2023, the R&D investment cost ratios of Li Ning, Anta, and Xtep will be ., respectively7%, a slight increase from the previous two years**.
This year, ANTA also put forward a running shoe matrix strategy to increase the layout of its products. It includes the ANTA Champion Running Shoes family and ANTA Mach series products positioned by the public, as well as the Champion Running Shoes 2nd Generation and Champion Running Shoes 2nd Generation Pro series products positioned for cushioning protection, as well as the Mach 3 and Mach 3 Pro products positioned for racing training.
For example, in the field of entry-level runners, Li Ning has launched ultra-light, Yueying, and Liejun product series suitable for daily jogging and low-to-medium intensity running, and Xtep has created series such as Chifeng and 2,000 kilometers.
The advent of various technical and professional running shoes has also increased the quality of related products. Nowadays, just a pair of ordinary carbon plate shoes is much more expensive than ordinary running shoes, and an ordinary pair of carbon plate shoes is thousands, and it can exceed 10,000 in minutes after the blessing of black technology.
It can be seen that the favorable policies and the industry are promoting the upward development of brands. However, in the downward stage of the entire economic cycle, we will inevitably have various inventory problems, and the performance will also be under pressure, and sports shoes and clothing are destined to find breakthroughs in other places.
03 Digitalization and going to sea, can you keep out the cold?According to the "2023 China Fashion Apparel Trend Insight*** Report", technological innovation is reshaping the structure of the apparel industry, promoting the development of the industry in the direction of digitalization, intelligence and networking, and reconstructing and optimizing the industrial ecology.
Since the beginning of this year, companies have also continued to work towards digitalization to improve efficiency and increase income.
A typical example is ANTA, which has been comprehensively promoting its digital transformation strategy since the second half of 2020, with DTC direct-to-consumer models as its strategic direction.
Today, ANTA has established a complete set of retail business processes and operational standards, which has significantly increased the store revenue of shopping malls in first- to third-tier cities. As of the end of June, 7,600 ANTA stores had completed the DTC transformation, with ANTA brands directly operating more than 70%.In the first half of this year, Anta's business revenue under the DTC model was 80%.8.5 billion yuan, an increase of 218%, accounting for 57% of ANTA's total business1%。These figures also confirm the returns that DTC's transformation has brought to ANTA.
Xtep first carried out digital transformation by connecting to DingTalk in 2011, but the most significant thing is that in its five-year plan announced in 2021, it specifically emphasized that it will strengthen digital operations through three links: customer line, product line, and ** chain.
This year, Xtep has gone hand in hand online and offline to embrace digitalization. Online, rooted in Tmall, JD.com, Vipshop and other e-commerce platforms. Offline, the ninth-generation retail store was launched, the operation management side has achieved digital upgrades, the space scene and user services have also been optimized, and the overall channel operation efficiency has been greatly improved.
According to the 2023 Q3 brand experience list of New Strontium Experience, the brand experience index of the sports and outdoor industry is 58, an increase of 1 point compared with the previous quarter. Xtep topped the digital experience list of the sports and outdoor industry, leading the way with 71 points. These achievements also depend on Xtep's ability to expand channels and innovate digitally.
Another major breakthrough point for brands is to go overseas, which is also a cliché trend.
More than 10 years ago, ANTA and Li Ning were exploring the path of internationalization, but this year, it has become more and more involuted and difficult to go overseas.
This year, Li Ning acquired the European outdoor high-end brand HAGL FS matchsticks, which is its third footwear and apparel brand after the acquisition of Tishon Tony and ClarkNeedless to say, Anta has relied on acquisitions to expand overseas markets all the way, and this year it also established the Southeast Asia International Business Division. Everyone has expanded overseas markets through acquisitions, but the income brought by these years is pitiful.
In the first half of 2023, the revenue of Li Ning International Market will be only 3100 million yuan, down 7 percent year-on-year5%, accounting for only 21%, also fell short of the target of 20% of overseas revenue set by the company ten years ago.
Anta has always had FILA, but the latest financial report does not mention overseas revenue data. However, last year, the revenue of the FILA brand decreased by 14% to 2152.3 billion yuan, operating profit decreased by 19% year-on-year44% to 430.1 billion yuan.
This year, Anta announced that FILA will achieve a turnover target of 40 billion to 50 billion yuan in the next three years, and according to last year's volume and the global economic situation, there is still some pressure to achieve this goal.
All in all, in 2023, sportswear brands are working hard, whether it is product upgrades, or corporate digitalization and internationalization, this is a major development trend in the entire consumer industry. But one thing that needs to be understood is that now in the entire economic downturn, everyone should also think about how to add clothes for the winter, and then to achieve the real "light of domestic products" on the upward road.