The UK became the second economy in the world to declare a "carbon tariff". The UK** has announced that it will implement the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism from 2027.
Statistics Canada recently released data showing that Canada's economy was basically flat for the third consecutive month in October, but it may rise slightly in November.
The Bank of Brazil** recently released its inflation report for the third quarter of 2023. In the report, the central bank of Brazil raised its forecast for the growth of Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) this year from 29% to 3%, while lowering the inflation forecast for the current year to 4.4 from 5% previously6%。Brazil's central bank has set an inflation target of 3% for 2024,* which can be maintained at 3About 5%.
Among the top four economies in the eurozone, France, Italy, and Spain have all achieved the ECB's inflation target of 2%.France, Italy and Spain account for about half of the eurozone's economy. However, inflation in Germany, the eurozone's top economy, will remain above 2% until 2025, and the Bundesbank expects German inflation to be above 2% even through 2026.
Data released by Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, ** and Industry showed that exports fell 5% year-on-year in November9% compared to 4 in OctoberThe 4% decline widened, continuing the contraction since March, and imports increased by 1 year in November7%。
Early South Korean** data suggests that export growth momentum will continue until the end of the year, reinforcing optimism about the economic outlook for 2024. According to data recently released by South Korea Customs, exports increased by 13% year-on-year in the first 20 days of December. Chip exports increased by 192%。
Domestic news
The party secretary of the National Development and Reform Commission said that it is necessary to focus on the central work of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development, in accordance with the overall requirements, main goals and key tasks determined by the first economic work conference, to be uncompromising, vigorous and resolute, realistic and pragmatic, and dare to do good to do a good job in implementation, adhere to the "progress in stability, promote stability with progress, first establish and then break", increase macroeconomic regulation and control, continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, in order to comprehensively promote the construction of a strong country with Chinese-style modernization, New and greater contributions have been made to the great cause of national rejuvenation.
Recently, the spokesperson of the national press said that it will continue to deepen reform and opening up, continuously improve the implementation of the "two unwavering" institutional mechanisms, deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, and promote the development and growth of the private economyWe will further attract and utilize foreign investment, continue to build a market-oriented, law-based and international first-class business environment, and support the implementation of the eight high-quality Belt and Road initiatives.
The state is open to the public to solicit opinions on the "Three-Year Action Plan for "Data Elements" (2024-2026) (Draft for Solicitation of Comments). The opinion proposes that by the end of 2026, the average annual growth rate of the data industry will exceed 20%, and the scale of data transactions will increase by 1 times.
**The premier pointed out that in the next step, it is necessary to further improve the level of marketization around better maintaining fair competition, support the development and growth of enterprises of all types of ownership without discrimination, accelerate the construction of a unified national market, increase efforts to clean up and abolish regulations and practices that hinder the unified market and fair competition, and effectively ensure that enterprises of all types of ownership participate in fair competition.
Steel Information
worldsteel: Global crude steel production in November 2023 was 145.5 billion tons, an increase of 3 over last year3%。
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in November 2023 was 7,60990,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 04%；From January to November, China's crude steel output was 95,21400,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%。
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, steel plates were exported 5.46 million tons in November, a year-on-year increase of 682%；From January to November, the cumulative export was 54.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 392%。In November, coal and lignite were exported to 560,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1466%；From January to November, the cumulative export was 4.03 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 96%。In November, imports were 43.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 348%；From January to November, the cumulative import was 427.14 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 628%。
According to the results of global steel demand in 2024 recently released by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, global steel consumption in 2023 is expected to be 17700 million tons, down 1 percent year-on-year3%；Global steel demand is expected to be 17800 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 08%。
According to the General Administration of Customs, China exported 560,000 tons of coal in November 2023, a year-on-year increase of 1466%, an increase of 8667%。Coal exports in November amounted to 11,46380,000 US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 561%, an increase of 7207%。
Data Aggregation
1. The benchmark price of raw materials and steel in Tangshan (exclusive collection of today's steel).
Remarks: 1. The data ** is collected for today's steel market;
2. The unit is yuan ton.
2. Bulk cargo international route shipping freight
Note: The unit is USD ton.
3. Imported iron ore index
Note: The unit is USD ton.
Note: The unit is USD ton.
4. Investigate the production of 247 steel mills in China
Remarks: 1. The average daily output of hot metal is 10,000 tons per day;
2. Investigate 247 steel mills.
5. Iron ore inventory of some steel mills in Tangshan
Note: The unit is 10,000 tons.
6. Bifocal motor freight
Note: The freight unit is yuan ton.
7. Profit per ton of coke
Note: The unit is yuan ton.
8. National steel inventory
Note: The unit is 10,000 tons.
Market analysis
Rebar
Last week, the domestic construction steel market first fell and then rose. According to market monitoring, as of the end of last week, the domestic 25mm** rebar price was 4010 yuan, down 1 yuan from the previous weekDomestic 8The average price of 0mm** coiled snail was 4217 yuan, down 6 yuan from the previous week. The total inventory of domestic building materials increased slightly week-on-week, and as of the 22nd, the total inventory of construction steel in key cities across the country was 416380,000 tons, an increase of 20 from the previous week660,000 tons, an increase of 5 week-on-week22%。Last week, the sample long process steel mill in Tangshan area added a blast furnace to resume production, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90 during the week5%, an increase of 2 week-on-week8 percentage points, an increase of 44 percentage points. In terms of data, according to worldsteel statistics, in November 2023, the crude steel production of the world's 71 countries included in worldsteel's statistics was 145.5 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 33%。From a fundamental point of view, the inventory of construction steel in key cities across the country increased slightly last week compared with the previous week. Among them, North China increased significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 11180,000 tons;East China increased by 5350,000 tons;In addition, the Northeast increased by 2 week-on-week180,000 tons;Last week, the spot ** first suppressed and then rose, and the downstream demand was released slowly. Judging from the total turnover of more than 200 steel trade building materials in the country last week, the average weekly volume increased month-on-month, an increase of 1 from the previous week680,000 tons. On the one hand, judging from the statistics of factory warehouses and social inventories last week, factory warehouses and social inventories have increased slightly. On the one hand, the overall trend of snails is strong, and the spot follow-up range is limitedSecond, the temperature in some parts of the south turned cold this week, and the downstream construction progress was blockedThird, the willingness of steel mills to raise prices is strong, and the factory warehouse has increased slightly. In the short term, the rise and fall of spot is limited, and the demand continues to shrink in the later period. In the later stage, we will focus on the policies and inventory of steel mills in various regions, so it is expected that the domestic construction steel market may run this week.
Hot rolls
Last week, ** rose slightly, of which the hot coil in Tianjin ** was 3980 yuan ton;Hot coil in Beijing is 4100 yuan ton;The hot coil in Tangshan area is 3990 yuan ton;The hot coil in Handan area is 4,000 yuan tons, and the overall increase is 10-40 yuan tons. From the month-on-month point of view, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hot coil** increased by 40-70 yuan tons from the previous month, and from the year-on-year perspective, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hot coil** decreased by 20-120 yuan tons compared with the same period last year. In terms of the market, the sentiment of spot trading is getting weaker and weaker, and some terminal downstream replenishes the warehouse on demand according to the order situation, and the traditional off-season and weather affect the downstream construction progress, and the willingness to actively purchase is insufficient. At present, the cost bottom support is strong. Although the transaction has been mediocre recently, the contradiction between supply and demand has not been worsened and remains relatively stable. Market confidence has been supported to a certain extent, and the business mentality is more cautious, mostly based on stable shipments, and there is little speculation. In the short term, it is expected that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hot-rolled coil will continue to run strongly this week.
Billets
Last week, the national billet was adjusted to a higher level, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnace remained high, the varieties of individual steel enterprises were deployed, the molten iron flowed to the billet, and the export volume of billet increased. Due to poor profits, the capacity utilization rate of downstream billet and rolling enterprises decreased slightly. With the improvement of finished product shipments, billet and rolling products enterprises have rebounded, and the billet inventory in the plant has increased. At present, the supply and demand of billets remain in a tight balance. In the past two days, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has issued an early warning policy for heavy pollution weather, and related enterprises may face maintenance and production reductions in the later period. However, from the perspective of **, it may play a certain role in supporting the market. In addition, interest rate cuts are expected to increase in the afternoon, while the raw material market remains high and firm, and the loss pressure of steel companies is obvious, so the market strength factor still exists. Therefore, it is expected that the billet will remain firm in the near future.
Iron ore
Last week, the domestic iron ore market adjusted in a narrow range. In terms of domestic mines, the mainstream of the market is stable. In terms of imported ores, spot ** fell first and then rose. The market was small at the beginning of last week, the market was small in the middle of last week, and the market continued its trend near the end of last week. In terms of iron ore global shipments and arrivals, the global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore continued to decline slightly, superimposed by the recent rain and snow weather, the unloading efficiency declined, the port inventory was small, and the overall end was weakerIn terms of steel mills, the operating rate and hot metal production continued to decline, and in the short term, there is still an expectation of decline, which has formed a certain impact on the demand for iron ore. On the whole, the iron ore market supply and demand are weak, and the iron ore market is expected to continue the trend this week.
Coke
Last week, the domestic coke market maintained stable operation, the cost of coking coal ** did not show a significant downward trend, the bottom support of coke is still there, and the steel mills are still in the case of low inventory, and the demand for replenishment is still there. In terms of cost, recent coal mine accidents have occurred frequently, the coal mines involved have stopped production for rectification, coking coal production has continued to tighten, and the overall situation has remained tight. **Aspect: After 3 rounds of increases, the profits of coke enterprises have been restored, the enthusiasm for production has improved, and the current shipment pressure of coke enterprises is not large, and the coke inventory in the plant has decreased compared with the previous period. On the demand side: the finished steel market as a whole is in the seasonal off-season, the profits of steel mills are not good, the output of molten iron has dropped slightly, and the demand for coke is less, but due to the weather, it is more difficult for steel mills to arrive at coke, and there is still a certain demand for coke. On the whole: the actual transaction of the coke market is general, the trading atmosphere is slightly deserted, and the coke 4 rounds of price increases have not responded, the market direction has begun to change, the market sentiment has changed to a weak level, the probability of the increase has been shelved, and it is expected that the coke market may be difficult to rise and fall this week.