In 2023, A-shares will rise and fall, unilaterally, constantly refresh the lower limit of adjustment, and the annual ** will record the fifth time in history that it has been in the negative.
For shareholders, there are only 6 words left in their hearts:It's a thing of ...... past
At the beginning of the year, YQ prevention and control was optimized, and the recovery expectation was "bursting". ChatGPT activated the imagination space of the market, sell-side analysts exclaimed the "fourth industrial revolution", the concept of "medium and special valuation" of weights was steadily advanced, and the Shanghai Composite Index touched higher to around 3420.
Unfortunately, this point turned out to be the highest point of the year, and then the market began to resist one-sided**.
7.On the 24th, the important meeting set the tone of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence", and after a short pulse of A-shares to around 3320, it once again marched to 3000 points without hesitation, although there were countless positive words during the period.
Finally at 10On the 20th, it successfully broke through 3,000 points, and the market sentiment was extremely sluggish, and only metaphysical concepts such as medicine and dragon characters on the disk brought weak hope to the cold market, so that investors could still feel the existence of A-shares.
Fortunately, in the last three trading days, A-shares were three consecutive yangs, leaving the romance on the last trading day. On the same day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 20At 23 o'clock, Zhou ** made a strong reversal, making a solid foundation for a good start in 2024.
At the end of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 370%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1354%, GEM fell 1941%, about 15% of the BSE 50**, becoming the only "winner" among the major stock indexes. this yearAmong the 56 industry classifications of Tongdaxin, 35 industries have achieved positive returns, and 21 industries have **, of which IT equipment, telecommunications operations, communication equipment, components and media and entertainment have led the gains, and hotel catering, tourism, daily chemicals, wine and real estate occupy the top five decliners.
This year, there were 2,882 and 2,439, with a median of about 3% and 577 with an increase of more than 50%.
Frankly speaking, just looking at the overall performance of the sector and **, 2023 is not particularly "outrageous".
However, investor participation is extremely bad for a number of reasons:
1. Weighted index stocks kidnapped the market, and the banking sector closed up 7%, making the Shanghai Composite Index not so ugly. Correspondingly, the GEM fell nearly 20%.
2. In terms of subdivisions, the main reason for the sharp decline of the GEM is the "crowd" of new energy ** and biomedicine led by Ning Wang. The former group is too extreme, and the expectation is too full, and you don't see that Ningwang's revenue in 2060 can be calculated by brokers. The latter is due to the high base brought by YQ and the slowdown in growth under the interest rate hike cycle of country M.
The good news is that these two directions have been overcorrected at present, and the signs of stabilization are more obvious, or where the excess returns in 2024 lie.
3. The rotation of the theme plate is too rapid and the sustainability is too poor, and small and medium-sized investors like to chase the rise and fall, which constitutes a dead cycle. When a theme concept appears, funds are often directly connected to the board, and in the process of connecting the board, small and medium-sized enterprises either dare not chase it, or they cannot participate in it at all.
When small and medium-sized investors have the opportunity to buy, it is precisely the time when the most active funds (especially high-frequency quantification) cash in profits. For example, the ChatGPT concept at the beginning of the year, the direction of big AI, and even a lot of public funds were harvested.
4. The public offering ** continued to sell, and it was bought from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, and at the same time, the northbound funds also sold unilaterally from August, and the daily average selling of 5 billion lasted for about 4 months.
So much so that there is a classic sigh of helplessness: the opponent plate that can't be sold at all, we are selling the company in the *** opponent market.
Fortunately, this is all in the past, and 2023 is over. Looking at the current point in time, it is not good or it will stay in 2023, and there is a high probability that it will not be too bad in 2024, because:
1) The current valuation of A-shares is too low, the PE quantile is below 20%, the PB has reached the historical limit, and the weight group (Mao Index and Ning Portfolio) has fallen for three years;
2) The internal fundamental recovery logic has been repeatedly confirmed by high-frequency data, and the external interest rate cut cycle may have been opened, and the big banks expect that country M will cut interest rates off a cliff in 2024, and liquidity will be worry-free;
3) Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index has been in the red for the first time, the CSI 300 Index has been in the red for three times, and the Hang Seng Index has ushered in four consecutive negative for the first time, which is basically unheard of in the global market.
Comprehensive analysis: Bad concentrated release and high probability all stay in 2023, inFundamentals are steadily rising + liquidity is abundant + adjustment is extremely sufficientIn combination, 2024 may be a small bull year.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).