Tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea continue. In the face of our stern warnings and actions, the Philippine side not only has no intention of stopping at all, but is also actively preparing to provoke a bigger incident. Marcos Jr. recently declared that "those countries facing the same situation as us have a paradigm shift." "Obviously, in the face of strong pressure, I still don't give up. It shows that the first war in the South China Sea is almost a foregone conclusion. The key is whether to fight big or small.
The "paradigm shift" of the Philippine pony was made in an interview with Japan at the Japan-ASEAN Summit in Tokyo last week.
In an interview, Pony said that Manila and Beijing's diplomatic efforts are going in a "bad direction." Raise and emphasize the responsibility of the Philippines** for the maintenance of the West Philippine Sea.
These words have three meanings.
First, diplomatic efforts have failed and are moving in a bad direction. This shows that the Philippines is not ready to give up.
The second is to encourage "countries facing the same situation", that is, the so-called "claimants" in the South China Sea, to join forces to resist China.
The third is the so-called "paradigm shift", which should be to abandon or break with traditional diplomatic means or efforts, that is, to take new actions.
The Philippines not only wants to abandon the traditional way of diplomatic negotiations, but also intends to encourage claimants to do the same. Breaking with the traditional paradigm is in fact abandoning the "South China Sea Code of Conduct Negotiations" that China and ASEAN have been actively engaged in. That's a big deal. This is to strongly cooperate with the US strategy of containing China and help the United States build a new anti-China fighting force.
Not only is Marcos Jr. making a big fuss, but the Philippine military is also saying that it is making contingency plans and that it is conducting "war games."
It is clear that the Philippines is ready to launch a larger provocation or hostility, and has even begun preparations for war.
For China, the issue of sovereignty in the South China Sea is at the core of our core interests. No matter what the situation is, no matter how difficult it is, the foundation of the South China Sea left by our ancestors must not be lost. One of the important signs of a rejuvenating power is the integrity of territorial sovereignty. Territorial sovereignty is incomplete, how can we talk about world powers?
The reason why Marcos Jr. chose a hostile policy toward China and took the initiative to provoke in the South China Sea is mainly based on three factors.
The first is to take the opportunity of the United States to vigorously promote the Indo-Pacific strategy to suppress and contain the process of China's rejuvenation and power. Whether it is an Indo-Pacific strategy or suppressing and containing China, the first task is to establish an anti-China and anti-Chinese alliance. As Biden said, the United States is stronger with the support of its allies.
Therefore, it is the best time to take advantage of the United States' eagerness to establish an "Indo-Asia-Pacific version of NATO" and to pull the United States into the water by showing loyalty and serving dogs and horses. It can be said that it is a mess.
The second is to take advantage of China's urgent need to deepen cooperation with ASEAN to stabilize the overall situation of cooperation and promote the reconstruction of the world order. It can also be said that it is fighting for ASEAN with the United States.
ASEAN's refusal to take sides in the US-China competition is actually beneficial to China. And the one who has been strengthening cooperation with China has actually chosen China.
It is necessary to strengthen cooperation with ASEAN. It is necessary not only to fully take into account the interests of ASEAN countries, but also to fully understand or respect the strategic or political aspirations of ASEAN countries.
Although there are only a few claimants in the South China Sea, this involves the stability of Southeast Asia and East Asia. Promoting the "Code of Conduct Negotiations in the South China Sea" is actually intervening in the dispute over sovereignty in the South China Sea. And it has already received China's tacit approval.
If ASEAN speaks out, China will give full consideration to its demands in the light of the overall situation. If the talks fail, it will be more beneficial to the Philippines or achieve the goal.
The third is Marcos Jr.'s domestic political needs. Such a move could easily stir up ultra-nationalist sentiment in the Philippines, which could increase his political leadership or strengthen his political position.
Now, China and the Philippines have seriously confronted each other, and even begun to brush up on guns. After arousing ultra-nationalist sentiments in the country, if there is another person who is quiet, the country will not agree. It can be said that Marcos Jr. has no way back. It can only be a road to the dark.
If the main thing was to play the American card some time ago, when China cannot be suppressed or the United States cannot be dragged into the water, it can only be another idea. This is where the term "paradigm shift" comes in. Perhaps this is also the idea of the Americans.
"Paradigm shift" is a scientific and technological term. It is also called canonical transfer. This was proposed by American scientists. Roughly speaking, it is a change in the fundamental assumptions based on the theory.
In the context of the South China Sea dispute, it means that past models or assumptions that can be resolved through consultation, negotiation or cooperation are to be abandoned or fundamentally changed. Abandoning a negotiated settlement can only be a settlement of siege or war.
Therefore, the battle between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea is almost a foregone conclusion. The key is whether to fight big or small.
One is a small fight. Frequent wiping of the gun will inevitably misfire. As the saying goes, it is inevitable to walk by the river without getting your shoes wet. Small-scale misfires are on the verge of breaking out, and at the same time, they are extinguished as soon as the fire is exchanged. Obviously, the Philippines will not be able to take advantage of this.
There is also a situation in which there is a certain or short exchange of fire, and when the Philippine side is strongly suppressed by our firepower, the provocation ends in failure.
After that, either the confrontation continues. Either the Philippine side retreats in the face of difficulties, and this round of conflict ends.
The second is to hit in the middle. Since the Philippine side has provoked and violated China's sovereignty first, China has not stopped doing anything to forcibly blow up or tow away the Philippine ship that is illegally beaching Ren'ai Jiao through military means. Full sovereign control of this sea area. This is the most likely form.
The third is a big fight. Since the fight is started, let's fight thoroughly. It is to completely recover the sovereignty of all nine islands and reefs illegally occupied by the Philippines without doing anything. This will inevitably lead to severe crackdowns by the Philippines. Until it hurts the Philippines so that it does not dare to act rashly.
Fourth, it will detonate the battle between China and the United States in the South China Sea.
While the U.S. will not sit idly by, it's unlikely that the U.S. military will actually launch a mutual defense treaty. It can only be that the Philippines fights for the United States, and there is no reason for the United States to fight for the Philippines. Theoretically, the U.S. military should retreat.
However, it is not ruled out that a miscalculation may trigger a conflict between the Chinese and US militaries. That is the Sino-American war. This situation and its consequences are difficult to predict.
Finally, it should be emphasized that the Philippines will certainly not be a war country for the United States. Its land area is too small, and its military strength is too poor. It is not worth a single round of artillery fire from our troops. A country accustomed to enslavement will not have a strong will to war at all. Surrender as soon as you hit is a certainty.
At present, the Philippines only wants to use the power of the United States to provoke China, and also wants to be able to pull ASEAN or South China Sea countries into the water to form a siege posture.
Southeast Asian countries are not fools and will not sacrifice the great opportunity for development and prosperity to oppose China. They will not sacrifice themselves to fulfill the Philippines and the United States. The important thing is that if you don't side with the United States, you won't side with the Philippines.
In fact, for China, although it is best not to fight, war I is not necessarily a bad thing, right now. At worst, it is the final sprint stage of China's strategy of rejuvenating and strengthening the country. At worst, it is a critical period for China's economic recovery. An unstable situation, even a war, will certainly undermine the process. Of course, if you can be stable, you will be stable, and if you can not fight, you will not fight.
However, such a situation is tantamount to leaving hidden dangers that cannot be eliminated. If the abscess is not removed, it is always a hidden danger, and there will always be a day when it will detonate. Sooner or later, you'll have to face it. Don't you always have to feel a sense of crisis?
Economic development is important, and national sovereignty and security are even more important. You can't always be reactive. It is not necessarily a bad thing to settle sovereignty disputes early at the expense of development speed. And the Philippine provocation is both a crisis and an opportunity.
The crux of the matter is not only whether China's economy can withstand the pressure, but whether or willing to withstand the pressure that can eliminate hidden dangers.
The United States is bound to stifle China's process of rejuvenating itself and becoming a strong country, and is bound to permanently dominate the world. Whether it is competition or confrontation between China and the United States, it may be difficult to avoid the "Thucydides trap" in the end.
Seeing that the economic and trade suppression, science and technology, and diplomatic isolation are becoming more and more ineffective, the current United States is actually actively carrying out the layout of the war. If the United States does not change its strategy of permanently dominating the world, and China does not change its strategy of rejuvenating and strengthening the country, it is difficult to avoid a war between China and the United States.
Although the United States is strong, it is also more constrained. That is, they could not concentrate their forces on a big fight with China, and they were not materially and psychologically prepared for a big war. Suffering from gains and losses is a taboo in war. Without a war, the United States has already lost its momentum and lost the opportunity.
If we proceed purely from the angle of strategic confrontation, now is the best opportunity for China to take the initiative to seek war.
Of course, it is not agitating for war. However, we will strike when it is time to make a move, and we will not hesitate at the critical moment, and what is currently competing with the United States is not only strength, but more importantly, momentum and will to war.