Glufosinate-ammonium is a large variety of herbicide market second only to glyphosate, with global annual sales of more than 1 billion US dollars, although there is still a gap between more than 5 billion US dollars of glyphosate, but it is also a large number of manufacturers to compete among them, China's Lier Chemical is the largest one.
Two years ago, due to the expansion of demand and the production capacity could not keep up, coupled with the epidemic situation, the buyers' hoarding factors, glufosinate** soared to 380,000 tons, but then many chemical plants expanded production, coupled with sluggish demand, ** was quickly suppressed to a minimum of 60,000 tons, which can be described as a tragic decline channel.
At this stage, the production capacity of major domestic manufacturers has been put into production one after another, but because the first has generally fallen below the cost line, coupled with the fact that the demand has not expanded too much, the operating rate is not high, and even some enterprises have directly stopped production. According to normal logic, it is the long market clearing phase after this round of investment, and then the next cycle is welcomed.
But suddenly, glufosinate-ammonium emerged again, and became the main force in the next stage of expansion.
The herbicidal activity of glufosinate-ammonium is 2 times that of ordinary glufosinate-ammonium and 4 times that of glyphosate. Refined glufosinate-ammonium is to convert the ineffective D-configuration in glufosinate-ammonium into an effective L-configuration, and the theoretical dosage per mu will be reduced by 50% (its herbicidal activity will be increased by 2 times), which will help to significantly reduce the cost of medication and improve the efficacyIn addition, glufosinate-ammonium has better bioaffinity than glufosinate-ammonium, faster plant absorption and utilization, and less ineffective bodies entering the environment. The technology of "halving the dosage and doubling the activity" of glufosinate-ammonium is in line with the development direction of "green prevention and control, reduction and damage control" of pesticides in China. And its environmental pollution is small.
Therefore, this one is more in line with the direction of future development. At present, the ** of refined grass is basically less than 2 times that of glufosinate-ammonium, which has a cost-effective advantage over glufosinate-ammonium, and replacing glufosinate-ammonium is also a normal need.
As of last year, the global demand for glufosinate ammonium was basically 5 to 60,000 tons a year, which was converted into refined grass, that is, about 30,000 tons. Then let's take a look at the current fine grass production capacity and expansion plan, incomplete statistics, Lier Chemical's production capacity has exceeded 20,000 tons, and it will plan to expand production by 100,000 tons. All other plants have a planned or planned production capacity of 300,000 tons. How to digest?
Although the manufacturer's expansion plan is aggressive, and it is still the trough stage, the manufacturers are not stupid and will not blindly expand production. Although a considerable part of these capacities are estimated to be in the planning stage, there will still be a considerable proportion of them that are actually put into production, and there will be a total of 200,000 total production capacity. There is much more than the current global demand.
The only explanation is that glufosinate-ammonium should form a substitute for other herbicidal products, especially glyphosate, and this trend does exist. Glyphosate has been used for a long time, which brings resistance, and the herbicidal performance is declining. In the past, the large-scale use of glyphosate was based on better cost performance, but now glufosinate** is low, and if it can be maintained for a period of time, the replacement will be instantaneous. I think it's a secret that manufacturers see.
If this is the case, Lier Chemical will have a head start in the next step of active expansion competition, and is still optimistic about its future development.