Japan officially delivered a new air warning radar to the Philippines on the 20th, which is the first time that Japan has exported first-class equipment products. However, this did not satisfy its export ambitions. According to a report by Japan, Japan will also reconsider the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and the guidelines for its application on the 22nd, and will decide to first export the Japanese-made "Patriot" air defense missiles to the United States, which will be the first export of lethal finished products under the "Three Principles of Defense Equipment Transfer." Chinese experts believe that this is a red flag and will trigger a series of chain reactions.
Export of anti-aircraft warning radar to the Philippines.
According to a report by the Philippine News Agency on the 20th entitled "Japan Transfers Air Alert Radar System to Philippine Air Force," the Japanese Embassy officially handed over a Japanese-made air alert radar system to the Philippine Air Force at a ceremony held at Wallace Air Station in San Fernando City, La Union Province. The delivery of the air warning radar system is based on a contract signed in August 2020 between the Philippines and Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi Electric Corp. As part of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) modernization program, the radar system is designed to enhance the AFP's air surveillance capabilities. The first anti-aircraft warning radar system arrived in October 2023, and three more radars are expected to be delivered to the Philippines in the coming years.
In June 2023, Japan's Self-Defense Forces deployed the Patriot missile system in Okinawa.
On the same day, the news agency said in an article titled "Japanese Radar System Improves Philippines' Ability to Detect Intrusions," Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro said on the same day that the air alert radar system purchased by the Philippines from Japan would enable the country to detect intrusions within 300 nautical miles (about 555 kilometers). The Philippine Air Force said the 500 million Philippine peso (100 Philippine pesos is about 13 yuan) radar contract includes three fixed radars and one mobile radar. These radar systems will be used by the Philippine Air Force's 580th Aircraft Control and Early Warning Wing.
The Japanese media reported on the matter from two other angles. An article titled "The Philippines Installs Japanese Radar to Track China's Movements" on the 20th said that the deal could pave the way for more Japanese defense exports. An anti-aircraft radar system, manufactured by Japan's Mitsubishi Electric, began operating on Wednesday at an air base overlooking the South China Sea, the report said. The new radar system, deployed on the northwest coast of the largest island in the Philippines, can see "unhindered" the "territories threatened by China" in recent months. The radar system is located at a former US Air Force base located about 300 km from Scarborough Shoal.
According to the report, this delivery also marks the first export of finished defense equipment made in Japan abroad.
Mark Manantan, director of cybersecurity and key technologies at the Pacific International Forum in Hawaii, said Japan could build on the agreement to seek similar arrangements with other countries. "By providing radar systems from Mitsubishi, Japan is determined to regain its position as a leading supplier of defense equipment, not only in the Philippines but also in the rest of Southeast Asia," he said. ”
Lethality will be exported for the first time**.
Although the export of radars to the Philippines was the first export of finished Japanese defense equipment, they were non-lethal early warning radar systems. Japan is also preparing to export lethal equipment for the first time. According to Nikkei Asia, Japan, which is hammering plans to deliver domestically produced "Patriot" missiles to the United States, marks a turning point in the country's defense equipment export policy. According to Japanese media, Japan could only manufacture parts and components for "Patriot" air defense missiles under a license. Japan** plans to reconsider the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and the guidelines for their application on the 22nd. The amendment will allow Japanese contractors to export finished defense equipment to countries with manufacturing licenses. These changes will apply to the Patriot missile.
The Asahi Shimbun commented on the 21st that this will be the first export of lethal finished products under the "Three Principles of Defense Equipment Transfer". Japan's "Mainichi Shimbun" said on 19 June that under the current "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment," the only export of finished defense equipment is the export of anti-aircraft warning radars to the Philippines, and the export of "Patriot" missiles to the United States in the future will be a major change in the policy of transferring defense equipment.
The Daily News also analyzed that in addition to supporting Ukraine, the United States has also stepped up its efforts to support Israel due to tensions in the Middle East. In addition, the United States is also pushing forward with Taiwan*** However, Japanese media also said that according to the revised framework, countries that grant manufacturing licenses need to get approval from Tokyo before sending Japanese-made defense products to third countries. Shipments to countries or regions that are parties to the conflict are not permitted. Under one proposal, transfers to Europe and other countries and regions not at war would be allowed through the United States**.
This news has also aroused great concern from both Russia and Ukraine. The Ukrainian Independent News Agency said on the 20th that the United States produced such a small number of missiles for the "Patriot" air defense missile system that it had to seek external assistance. In June 2023, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its report that the current production capacity of the United States can only produce 450 Patriot missiles a year, of which 250 are directly purchased by the US military. At the same time, the potential of the US military-industrial complex to increase production is limited to 15%-20% per year.
Russia's "Kommersant" said on the 21st that Japan's export of missiles to the United States will give the United States the opportunity to replenish its own ** arsenal and provide more missiles to Ukraine, but given Japan's limited production capacity, this will not fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine. Vasily Kashin, director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, said that Ukraine's current ammunition ** is very tight, not only because of the funding problems of the US Congress, but also because of the shortage of production capacity. In addition, the current situation in the Asian region is very tense, and Japan will also consider its own defense issues, so Japan will not hand over all of its missile stockpiles to the United States. In this case, Japan's supply of missiles to the United States will not fundamentally change the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine, but will only slightly ease the pressure on US missile stockpiles. At the same time, Russian experts believe that Japan also has other types of **, ammunition, compatible with models used by NATO, which will open the door to arming Ukraine.
How Japan is gradually completing "self-deregulation".
In fact, Japan has been brewing for some time to further "loosen itself" in this round of ** exports. On December 4 this year, an article entitled "Japan Allows Exports to Patent-Holding Countries" in Nikkei Asia disclosed that Japan will revise the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" to allow exports to patent-holding countries. According to the report, Tokyo aims to strengthen relations with Japan's security partners and the domestic defense industry. Japan's Self-Defense Forces are armed with about 80 types of equipment produced under license, including lethal**. About 30 are licensed by the United States, and the rest are licensed by seven other countries, including the United Kingdom and Germany.
In April 2014, Japan formally established the "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" and replaced the "Three Principles for Export" to countries in the communist camp.
Zhang Xuefeng, an expert on Chinese affairs, told the Global Times that the "Three Principles of Export" basically do not allow exports, and only set exceptions and implement them when necessary. The "Three Principles for the Transfer of Defense Equipment" is to basically recognize the export of **, and on this basis, establish prohibited content and review mechanisms. And this revision will be an updated "self-loosening", it is clear that Japan has no intention of self-restraint in terms of ** exports, which is a very dangerous signal and will have a series of chain reactions. Japan will use the export of "Patriot" missiles as a model to export more lethality to the outside world, which will inevitably pose a threat to regional security.
*: Global Times.