Pig prices ** indicate that a new round of rally is coming
In December, hogs were just as difficult as cereals.
It can be said that pig prices have been waiting for the end of the year since the beginning of the year, but they are still disappointing.
Especially in December, which was supposed to be the peak season for pig prices, the result did not rise but fell, and even 14 yuan kg could not be kept, which was really a tragedy.
Didn't you say there would be a spike in spending at the end of the year?
Didn't they say it would make the pig price ** a little bit?
Where did the promised growth go?
Don't worry, don't worry, the climb is coming.
The day before, the pig price was still green across the board, but on this day, the pig price suddenly reversed across the board, and it was red for most of the day.
We're not going to talk about how long or short the process is, but it's good news.
Some people will say that pig prices rise and fall, which is not very normal, this year's pig prices are like this, up a few days, down a few days, but in general, up less, down a lot, so pig prices are not as good as before.
But New Agri View believes that the increase is not exactly the same this time.
Although this time the ** is also phased, it has sent a signal, that is, the pork ** has begun to rise.
Why?This is because the supply and demand phases of the hog market are quietly changing.
We all know that if you want to be the best pig price, you must look at it from two aspects:
One is capacity, and the other is consumption.
In other words, either the capacity is significantly reduced and the pressure is reduced, or the downstream demand is growing and is no longer so slow.
What's changed?
Answer: Everything is quietly changing.
The first is the production capacity, the production capacity has not changed much, and the number of sows that can reproduce is still not low, but for a period of time, the incidence of pig diseases has been high, and the number outside the circle has increased a lot.
While the pig price has repeatedly failed to see hope, the mentality of farmers to raise prices is getting weaker and weaker.
Demand has not changed much, but the volume has increased, which is one of the reasons why pig prices continued in November and December.
On the other hand, pig prices continued to be in December"6 prefixes"Hovering nearby, it can be seen that the market wait-and-see sentiment will not be very high, and the second fattening is even more difficult, so the enthusiasm for the second fattening this year is very low, which means that although the production capacity is still huge, but the large pig ** is relatively scarce.
Viewpoint argues that this must be kept in mind.
Because the next method that the market has been focusing on is time to show its talents, and this kind of method is exactly what Big Pig needs.
In general, there are two aspects to pickling:
One is the weather, and the other is **.
Needless to say, this year's pork ** is down across the board, and ** advantages have appeared. The second is the weather.
It's funny. This year's weather is strange, most areas are warm winter climate, especially in the south, the temperature is not low, so the pickled meat is also pushed again and again, and the start is not prosperous.
But now, the cold wave has arrived, and most of the country is about to play out again"Winter overnight"The North China, Huanghuai and Northeast Divisions have begun to fall heavily and the temperature has dropped sharply, while the temperature in the south has finally begun to drop significantly.
As the saying goes, when the temperature drops, pickles rise.
From the perspective of weather conditions, this wave of snowfall and cooling will continue for a while, because of the rain and snow weather, the volume of live pig transportation and the amount of white strips on the market will decline, and the demand alone can play a perfect combination punch.
According to the law of previous years, the winter solstice is the peak period of healing, and counting the time, there are also ten days before the winter solstice this year, so the impact of the cold wave almost immediately weakens during the peak period of healing.
If this wave of ** trend is good, it should continue for a period of time, which does not mean that pig prices will only rise and not fall from now on, there will definitely be repeated, but with the gradual boost of consumption on New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the possibility of pig prices continuing to fall again is getting smaller and smaller, and the center of gravity has gradually begun to move back.
Although the increase is generally not ideal, but in the current state of the market, it is good news not to continue. It can stop falling in the context of **, and this year's pig price can be regarded as a perfect ending.
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