Wen Laomo.
It's late December, and it's the end of the year. At this time of the year, all kinds of property market information will come one after another, especially in the past two years of transformation, there are more voices.
In the past two days, I have found that there are always some people who misinterpret what I mean, and I must say these things, such as that house prices will definitely rise in 2024, and everyone should hurry up to buy a house......Only then will they think I'm objective.
We don't sing about the decline of the property market, in fact, what we really want to do is to predict the trend of the property market as accurately as possible based on facts, such as these two points:
1. The scope of the pilot project of existing houses may be further expanded
2. First-tier, second-tier and other cities may have different regulatory policies.
If by now, you still feel that these contents have nothing to do with housing prices, not to mention whether you can see the essence through the phenomenon, maybe you haven't even figured out the basic logic, and it's strange not to suffer.
In order to make it easier for everyone to understand, let's focus on these two topics together. Please note that the content does not involve the decline of the property market, it is purely a discussion.
When it comes to the sale of an existing home, we instinctively associate it with a bad finish. To be honest, from existing houses to off-plan houses, as long as there are loopholes in supervision, they may be unfinished, and this is why "resolving project delivery risks" should be regarded as one of the key tasks in 2024.
Actually, I think there is another role behind the current sale, but it has been ignored for a long time, which is to prevent developers from continuing to expand on a large scale.
According to public data calculations, in the first 10 months of 2019-2023 alone, the average annual new construction area of residential buildings exceeded 120,000 square meters, especially in the previous two years, the average annual area was directly as high as 160,000 square meters. This is undoubtedly a good proof of this.
On the bright side, it has indeed met the urgent needs of our people to change the quality of life in a relatively short time. But in the process, there are also problems, such as unfinished.
Some developers know that some projects have been completed, but not only do not take the initiative to solve them, but continue to start new projects. If this phenomenon is not restrained, there may be more unfinished phenomena.
And the current sale is undoubtedly one of the good solutions, because it greatly increases the financial requirements of developers, as long as the house is not built, it is impossible to sell it, and they simply cannot have the funds to develop new projects.
According to information, since the beginning of 2023, Hefei and Zhengzhou and other places have been piloted. According to the speculation of the Middle Finger Academy,In 2024, more cities or regions will be promoted, and more importantly, this move is also expected to accelerate the process of reform of the pre-sale system.
Of course, the "big pot rice" thinking is just a generalization, and there is no belittling meaning. In fact, if we look closely, it is not difficult to find that in the past, the introduction of property market policies was basically based on the whole country, or as long as the first-tier cities were implemented, the second-tier, third-, fourth-tier, fifth-tier and even eighth-tier cities would follow up.
And now the situation has really changed. Although according to the monitoring of the China Index Institute, a total of more than 600 policies will be issued across the country in 2023, there is a high probability that the focus will be different between cities at all levels.
For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, such first-tier cities cannot be fully liberalized, and some restrictive policies will be retainedThe second line may completely cancel the purchase restriction, or even cancel the sales restriction;Third- and fourth-tier cities and below are more in terms of subsidies.
In fact, it is not difficult to understand that the attractiveness of small cities cannot be compared with that of large cities, and it is better to directly subsidize them with money than to cancel purchase and sale restrictions.
On the other hand, people who buy houses in big cities are more restricted by their household registration and qualifications to buy a house. Besides, there are so many people, even if you give subsidies, how much can you give?20,000?Or 30,000?It's really better to relax the restrictions.
In summary:
From December 21 to 22, the National Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference held in Beijing mentioned that 2024 should be adhered toSeek progress in stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break.
Compared with the rapid growth in the past, isn't the pursuit of stability a turning point?It's completely two eras, this is really not an exaggeration, in fact, this is normal, now our concept has changed, if we use the old development ideas in the past, it is backward.
Therefore, the top management has actually noticed these problems for a long time and has been adjusting, so we have to be confident.
What do you think about this?
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