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Judging from the data of China's major coal importers, from January to November 2023, China's coal imports from Australia, Colombia, Mongolia, South Africa, Russia, the United States and Indonesia have increased significantly year-on-year, with year-on-year increases of % and 30% respectively. From January to November 2023, China's coal imports from the Philippines were basically the same year-on-year, and the amount of coal imported from Canada decreased by 3% year-on-year. 
In a single month, in November, China's main thermal coal importers were still Indonesia, Australia, Russia, Mongolia and the Philippines. Among them, China's thermal coal imports from Indonesia account for 56% of China's total thermal coal imports6%, but down from 59% in the previous month;Thermal coal imports from Australia account for 18 percent of China's total thermal coal imports9%, up from 16 in October8%, accounting for a further increase. In November, most parts of the country experienced a phased cooling weather, which promoted the increase in the demand for coal consumption for heating in power plants, and the advantage of imported coal compared with domestic coal this month still exists, and power plants are more enthusiastic about purchasing imported coal. In addition, the demand for thermal coal with medium and high calorific value has increased in the context of increased power plant load in winter, which is also the main reason for the increase in the proportion of Australian thermal coal imports. 
This week, the imported coal market ushered in a blockbuster news!On December 21, the Customs Tariff Commission issued an announcement to adjust the import and export tariffs of some commodities, among which coal and lignite are not mentioned in the provisional tariff schedule for imported goods. If there is no change, from January 1, 2024, imported coal will return to the previous tariff policy, and the temporary zero tariff policy on imported coal will also come to an end. However, the impact of tariff reinstatement on the imported thermal coal market is likely to be limited. In accordance with the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, China's imports of Indonesian coal and Australian coal will continue to maintain a zero-tariff policy, and imported coal from other countries will be subject to the most-favored-nation tariff rate. At present, although under the guarantee of high inventory, the speed of power plants to the warehouse is relatively slow, and the release of spot demand is relatively limited, but due to the advantages of imported coal can not be ignored, coupled with the increase in the load of power plants in winter, in addition to continuing to purchase low-calorie coal for blending, the procurement demand for thermal coal with medium and high calorific value will also increase, and it is expected that the import volume will continue to remain high in December. In January next year, if tariffs are resumed, considering that Russian and Mongolian coal are more dependent on the Chinese market, the impact is expected to be relatively limited, while imports of Indonesian coal and Australian coal are still expected to grow, and the overall import volume will not decrease significantly. (Author: Cheng Fang).
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