Recently, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate decision, in which the Fed once again announced a pause in interest rate hikes. Not only that, but the Federal Reserve expects that the Fed may cut interest rates by 75 basis points next year. So, what would be the impact if the Fed cut interest rates?
As the world's most influential central bank, the changes in the Fed's monetary policy have far-reaching global implications. For our country, the impact is mainly in the following aspects.
First of all, it affects the exchange rate of the RMB. The Fed's interest rate cut will most likely cause the depreciation of the dollar, and once the dollar depreciates, the RMB will appreciate against the dollar.
Because interest rate cuts are loose monetary policies, they will increase the money supply, and when the supply of money increases and the demand for money remains unchanged, it will naturally cause currency depreciation. If the dollar depreciates, there is a high probability that the RMB will appreciate against the dollar.
The U.S. dollar index fell sharply after the Fed's interest rate decision, while the renminbi rose sharply against the dollar. Just one expectation of an interest rate cut has already had such a big impact on the RMB exchange rate, and if the Fed does cut interest rates, the impact may be even greater.
Therefore, in the future, it may be necessary to hold US dollar assets carefully, especially the operation of converting RMB into US dollars, which may not be a wise choice.
Secondly, it will affect the market. The Fed's interest rate cut is a positive factor for the market. On the one hand, the Fed cuts interest rates, which can boost the United States**. And if the United States is the best, it can play a leading role in the world, and China's A** field also has the opportunity to be boosted.
On the other hand, the Fed's interest rate cut will cause the dollar to depreciate and the return on assets of some dollar assets to fall, which may cause global capital to flow out of the United States and into other markets.
And China's ** is currently in the underestimation stage, coupled with the appreciation of the people, it may be expected to attract a large amount of funds from the United States to enter our country**. Once a large inflow of foreign capital, it can not only directly promote China's first country, but also boost the confidence of domestic investors.
After the Fed signaled that it would cut interest rates, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply, and the Dow Jones even hit another all-time high. Affected by this, China's A** field has also changed its decline.
If the U.S. starts to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts, A-shares may also be expected to usher in a long-awaited bull market.
Thirdly, it is to influence the commodity asset market. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut may cause a bull market in commodity assets, which is represented by **.
Because the trend of ** can be said to be highly correlated with the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. When the Fed raises interest rates, gold prices are likely to fall, and once the Fed cuts interest rates, gold prices may rise sharply.
Since the Fed paused its interest rate hikes, it has risen a lot, and even hit a record high at one point. After the Federal Reserve's new round of interest rate decision released a signal to cut interest rates, gold prices also rose sharply, and the international gold price rose by more than $50 an ounce after the interest rate decision.
So, if the Fed cuts interest rates, there is a possibility of a new round. Other assets in the commodity market are also likely to rise.
Overall, the Fed's interest rate cut is more favorable to domestic investors.