1. Hot information
[International News].
1. The Office of the ** Representative of the United States announced on December 26 local time that it will further extend the Article 301 tariff exemption period for 352 Chinese imports that have resumed tariff exemption and 77 Chinese imports related to new crown epidemic prevention, from December 31 this year to May 31, 2024.
2. CME "Fed Watch": The Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 5 in February next year25%-5.The probability that the 50% interval will not change is 855%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 145%。The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by March next year is 188%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 699%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 113%。
[Domestic news].
1. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting of enterprise leaders. The meeting emphasized that in 2024, the SASAC will maintain the target management system of "one profit and five rates" for enterprises as a whole, and the specific requirements are "stable growth of one profit and continuous optimization of five rates", that is, the efficiency of enterprises will be steadily improved, and the total profit, net profit and net profit attributable to the parent company will grow in synergy.
2. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) held a meeting of enterprise leaders. From January to November, the total profit was 24 trillion yuan, a total of 4 yuan of fixed asset investment (including real estate).1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91%, R&D investment of more than 900 billion yuan, an increase of nearly 70 billion yuan year-on-year.
3. The deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission said at the press conference that the advantages of the super-large-scale market will help expand domestic demand. Promote the construction of a gradient transfer pattern of industries in the eastern, central and western regions;Give full play to the role of the national land secondary market transaction service platform, promote the market-oriented allocation of land resources, and revitalize the stock of resourcesAccelerate the standardization of multimodal transport;In-depth implementation of high-quality development of trade and logistics and county-level commercial construction actions. The purpose is to give better play to the supporting role of the unified market in expanding domestic demand.
4. The spokesman of the Ministry of Transport and the director of the Policy Research Office said at the briefing that in the next step, the Ministry of Transport will continue to strengthen the scheduling and supervision of multimodal transport, organize the pilot implementation units to do a good job in the implementation of the tasks of "one ticket system, one single system, and one box system" for comprehensive transportation services, accelerate the development of container rail-water combined transport, and promote the continuous improvement of the proportion of green evacuation of bulk cargo.
On the 25th, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management once again allocated 400 million yuan in natural disaster relief funds to support earthquake relief in Gansu and Qinghai, focusing on emergency relief for the affected people, transitional transfer and resettlement, compensation for the victims, and restoration and reconstruction of damaged housing, so as to ensure that the lives of the affected people are properly settled, have a place to live, have hot meals to eat, and not be frozen, and restore the order of production and life in the disaster area as soon as possible.
6. A few days ago, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Data Bureau issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Common Prosperity through the Digital Economy", which proposes that by 2025, the digital economy will promote common prosperity in narrowing the gap between regions, urban and rural areas, groups, and basic public services, and the positive role of the digital economy in promoting common prosperity will begin to appearBy 2030, remarkable results will be achieved in accelerating the bridging of disparities between regions, urban and rural areas, groups, and basic public services, and a number of typical cases of east-west cooperation and replicable and generalizable innovative achievements will be formed, and substantial progress will be made in promoting common prosperity in the digital economy.
Second, the industry dynamics
1. The Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute released the latest research results on steel demand in China and the world, and it is expected that China's steel consumption will be 8 in 2023900 million tons, down 33%。Among them, the demand for steel in automobile, energy, shipbuilding and other industries is growing, and the demand for steel in construction, railway, container and other industries is declining. It is expected that the year-on-year decline in China's steel demand will narrow in 2024, and the total amount will drop to 87.5 billion tons.
2. The National Development and Reform Commission and other five departments recently jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the In-depth Implementation of the "Eastern Data and Western Computing" Project to Accelerate the Construction of a National Integrated Computing Network. The opinions put forward that by the end of 2025, the comprehensive computing infrastructure system will take shape. The new computing power in the national hub node area accounts for more than 60% of the new computing power in the country, and the utilization rate of computing power resources in the national hub node significantly exceeds the national average.
3. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued a notice on the adjustment of the price limit and trading margin standard of the relevant ** contracts during the New Year's Day holiday in 2024, starting from the settlement on December 28, 2023 (Thursday), the price limit of the industrial silicon ** contract will be adjusted to 8%, and the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10%;The price limit of lithium carbonate** contracts is adjusted to 15%, and the trading margin standard is adjusted to 16%, of which the trading margin standard of lithium carbonate**LC2401 and LC2402 contracts remains unchanged at 20%.
4. Baowu Resources' BOMI project in Liberia, West Africa, was completed and put into operation, with the first shipment of 46,000 tons of iron ore, which is expected to arrive in China in February 2024. In the next step, the BOMI project team will continue to strengthen the mine production plan and road transportation organization, conduct in-depth research and explore the barge process, further improve production capacity and transportation capacity, reduce the cost of the whole process, and take multiple measures to improve quality and efficiency.
5. Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in terms of fiscal and taxation systems, the implementation plans for the reform of the financial system in some provinces have been issued and implemented, and the establishment and improvement of a more reasonable financial system below the provincial level with a more reasonable allocation of powers and responsibilities have been promoted. In terms of the statistical system, we will deepen the statistical reform of industrial activity units as legal persons, and promote the local statistics of non-local branches in the fields of automobiles, petroleum, and department store retail. In terms of optimizing the industrial layout, the 2023 China Industrial Transfer and Development Docking Event will be held, and the special action of advanced manufacturing industry will be implemented. In terms of regional integration, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing and other regions have issued implementation plans for the integration of regional markets.
6. Li Chunlin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the press conference that he would intensify the exploration of the first and first trials. Combined with the implementation of major regional strategies and regional coordinated development strategies, encourage Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the Yangtze River Delta to take the lead in the construction of regional market integration, actively explore and innovate in improving market system rules, improving market infrastructure, sharing logistics development results, and strengthening cross-regional market supervision and cooperation, so as to provide the country with replicable and promoted experience, that is, in the process of building a unified national market, it is necessary to tear down the fence and change the soil. Good practices, and strive to be successful in these places before being promoted throughout the country.
3. Overhaul and steel mill information
1. Yancheng Lianxin plans to overhaul the two blast furnaces from January 3, 2024, and plans to resume production on February 20, which is expected to affect the total output of about 550,000 tons.
2. Tianjin Ronggang is expected to overhaul the heating furnace of the bar production line from December 24 to January 9, which is expected to affect the output of 75-220 bars 350,000 tons.
3. Starting in late December, Beibu Gulf New Materials will carry out annual routine maintenance of the blast furnace, which will continue until January next year, which will affect the output of the 200 series from December to January next year, and the total output is expected to be reduced to 100,000 tons in January.
Fourth, downstream information
1. According to the statistics of the China Index Research Institute, since 2023, more than 700 real estate policies have been issued in ** and local governments, and most of the local policies have adopted the method of improving and optimizing the provident fund policy and issuing housing purchase subsidies, and involving the optimization of the purchase restriction policy, the reduction of the down payment ratio and the mortgage interest rate, and the optimization of the supervision of pre-sale funds. Although the number of policy introductions is not as high as in 2022, the optimization efforts have been intensified, and the restrictive policies in most cities have been lifted, and the policy environment is close to the most relaxed stage in 2014.
2. Fujian Province: Do everything possible to increase the income of urban and rural residents and cultivate and expand new consumption. Strengthen project reserves and landing construction, promote the gradual stabilization of real estate investment, and promote private investment. Improve the financial risk prevention and control mechanism, crack down on illegal financial activities, prevent the emergence of new real estate risks, and resolutely curb the new local hidden debts.
3. Recently, with the support of the private enterprise bond financing support tool (hereinafter referred to as the "second arrow"), New Hope Wuxin Industrial Group successfully issued 800 million medium-term notes, according to December 25, 2023, the "second arrow" has issued a total of 38 for 13 private real estate enterprises, totaling 361RMB6.8 billion of debt financing instruments provide credit enhancement services.
4. China Machinery Industry Federation: According to customs statistics, from January to November 2023, the total import and export volume of the machinery industry was 991.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 12%。Among them, imports were 276.2 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 91%；Exports were 715.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 58%。* Surplus of $439.3 billion.
5. Market transactions
[Lecong steel world weighbridge import and export index].
On December 26, 2023, the steel world weighbridge shipment index recorded 104 points, up 2 points or 2% from the previous trading day, and down 10 points, or 8., from the same period last week8%；The steel world weighbridge purchase index recorded 102, up 15 points from the previous trading day, an increase of 172%, down 8 points, or 7., from the same period last week3%。Yesterday, the weighbridge import and export index was flat, the spot market was running smoothly, the market transaction was weakening, and the trading atmosphere was not good.
On the whole, the pressure of supply and demand in the off-season steel market has increased, but the inventory accumulation rate is slow, and the production cost of steel mills is further pushed up, and the bottom support of steel prices is strong, and the short-term or continuation of high-level operation. (The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice).