In the Sino-US chip war, the United States has lost the game
The United States is paying more and more attention to wafers, not only requiring ASML, TSMC and other leading companies to cooperate with customers in their own ways, but also requiring the Netherlands, Japan and other countries and regions to join their own camp and strive to achieve wafer self-sufficiency.
In fact, the United States has lost this Sino-US chip war, what is the result?Can the United States achieve chip self-sufficiency?
The complex situation with American chips.
In the past, American chips were very popular in the global market, and the consumer markets of various countries had to find American companies to buy chips, and American companies also made a lot of money from the chip sales business.
But all this has changed, and with the frequent revision of the rules on chips in the United States, American companies have fallen into a complex market environment and have not been able to achieve a bumper harvest in the past through freedom**. What's more, this gum war, provoked by the United States, has already been lost.
All the efforts made by the United States will only lead to the differentiated development of the globalization of tablet computers, and the first company will strengthen the controllability of tablet computers without adopting American technology. In what ways?
First, countries must be autonomous.
From the invention of silicon-based materials to the invention of integrated circuits, transistors, microprocessors and other fields, the world's earliest wafers are related to American companies, which is also the reason why American wafer technology can spread in the global industrial chain.
Today, countries and regions are realizing the autonomy of tablets, reducing their dependence on American technology in their own way.
For example, South Korea, before the wafer self-sufficiency rate rises from 30% to 50% in 2030, has invested heavily with Japan to build"High-end wafer alliance", 8 Japanese companies formed a joint venture to carry out 2nm research. In addition, the EU has withdrawn 43 billion euros in subsidies and plans to increase wafer production capacity to 20% of the global share, and will achieve this goal ahead of schedule by 2030.
The interpretation of the United States by various countries is the so-called"More aid, less aid", the United States does not let them do business, they find a way to bypass the rules of doing business.
Second, the performance of the American chip giant is going through difficult times.
Chips from American companies such as Qualcomm, Nvidia, Intel, and AMD are booming in the market, and many customers need to find American companies to buy chips. Due to excellent design capabilities, coupled with the adoption of TSMC's high-end chip foundry technology, American companies have captured a significant market share in chip sales.
But now American companies can't sell their chips, and the chip rules formulated by the United States itself make it impossible for American companies to operate as usual, and they can't get orders.
As a result, the performance of American companies has been landmines, such as Nvidia's profit fell by 72% in the second quarter of last year, Seagate's profit fell by 94% in the first quarter, and Intel's profit in the third quarter of last year**85%. Almost all of them show a downward trend, and it is difficult to recover in a short period of time.
After the decline in performance, a large number of technology companies in the United States set off a wave of layoffs, and the number of layoffs could reach thousands or even tens of thousands. The reason why the United States lost the chip war is because the advantages of chip technology, talent, and production capacity are gradually disintegrating from within.
In addition, mature chips still have great market prospects.
Affecting the situation and demand of the chip market, the main layout of chips of American companies is to focus on high-end processes, increase the research and development of chips such as 7nm and 5nm, and find a large number of high-end chips in TSMC's production, occupying the main share of the chip market for consumer electronics products such as smartphones, computers, and tablets.
However, 7nm and 5nm chips have disappeared, and while demand is declining, **is still continuing**, on the contrary, mature chips still have great market prospects. For example, wifi chips, power management chips and sensor chips only need to use mature processes such as 28 nm and 40 nm.
Not only can it meet the demand, but it also costs less. A 12-inch wafer with a 28-nanometer chip costs only $3,000 to make a piece, while a 3-nanometer wafer costs as much as $20,000, a huge difference.
The key is that mature chips can be controlled in China, SMIC has four 12-inch wafer fab projects in its hands, and Hua Hong Semiconductor has announced the expansion of 12-inch wafer fabs. It is believed that as long as the production capacity is sufficient, the market pattern will undergo major changes.
Can U.S. chip self-sufficiency succeed?
The United States is trying to get the chip industry chain back on track, and American companies have orders for chips produced in the United States. Inviting TSMC to build a factory in the United States is not enough, the goal is to remove the $52 billion subsidy and frequently change the rules of external competitors, but can it succeed?The answer is that it's hard to see signs of success.
Not to mention that chips are inseparable from global development, sales and manufacturing need to be placed in the global industrial chain, and the United States cannot play the role of consumers and businessmen while rising, because the United States 3It is impossible for 3.2 billion people to consume hundreds of billions of chips, but they cannot afford the market size of hundreds of billions of dollars.
After all, the United States needs to sell chips to foreign customers, and as a result, the United States can't sell them, so what's the use of American companies continuing to make chips.
The chips cannot be sold without any income, which in turn affects the operation of the enterprise and how to promote the layout of the chip. In addition, the United States will face huge costs if it wants to lay out the chip industry chain in place, and it will require trillions of dollars of investment, and the United States may not be able to print that money if it prints money frantically. As a result, the goal of self-sufficiency in chips in the United States is difficult to achieve.
In this chip war, the United States lost, other countries and regions around the United States' technology, to build their own industrial chain system, American companies' revenue and profits declined, I am afraid that it will not be able to support the huge investment in research and development projects, which will affect the strength of science and technology.
There is also the main advantage, high-end chips from the United States have lost strong demand, and capital has begun to transfer to mature chips. Based on all these things, all the results are predestined.
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