The supply is completely cut off, and the level of China's chips is only 90nmFor more details, please pay attention to the latest trends
TSMC and Samsung have reached production capacity for 3nm wafers and are also working to produce 2nm wafers. SMIC, Chinese mainland's largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, has mastered the technology for mass production of 14nm chips.
This is still the DUV lithography technique used by the Dutch company ASML. The mass production process of domestic lithography machine is 90 nanometers. If all the supply is cut off, does it mean that China's chip production capacity is only 90 nanometers?The situation is well known.
The birth process of a wafer is very complex, which is roughly divided into three parts: design, manufacturing, packaging and testing. A large number of hardware and software technologies are used in each link.
For example, the design requires EDA industrial software, architecture technology, and IP modules. Lithography machines, etching machines, ion implanters, thin film deposition and other equipment are used in manufacturing. As for the packaging and testing process, a large amount of material technology is required, and there is a complete industrial chain behind each material.
And there are at least 1,000 of these industrial chain links in the entire semiconductor industry. It is almost impossible for a country or region to fully master the ability to manufacture chips independently, at most it can only master the technology of the corresponding semiconductor equipment and complete a series of manufacturing steps.
Chip is a highly globalized industry, it is the crystallization of human wisdom, and every region in every country plays an important role in the process of chip globalization. However, due to the frequent intervention of some countries in the market order of the integrated circuit industry, the globalization of integrated circuits has brought many variables.
From EDA software to EUV lithography machines and wafer raw materials, almost all the corresponding rules are binding. This fact not only makes people curious, if they encounter a total supply cut, how can domestic manufacturers mass produce under 90nm lithography conditions, doesn't this mean that China's wafer production capacity is only 90nm?
I can only say that this statement is somewhat one-sided. First of all, it is necessary to distinguish between purely domestic and domestic concepts.
The former refers to any kind of manufacturing process, which almost always uses self-developed technology. The latter refers to the global industrial chain that is based on the acquisition of foreign semiconductor equipment, and then processed and transformed by domestic manufacturers to obtain product support.
Simple localization can produce 90 nanometers, but SMIC's localization can already achieve mass production of 14 nanometer chips. With this change understood, it is not difficult to find the answer by answering the hypothetical question.
That is, even if it encounters an all-round shortage, China's wafer production capacity is above 90 nanometers, but it can rely on mastering domestic technology and purchased equipment to complete wafer processing and manufacturing.
In layman's terms, domestic ASML manufacturers will buy lithography machines for the production of 14nmDUV chips, so they will be able to continue production in the future.
Regardless of the attitude of other countries, it will not affect the continued use of purchased semiconductor equipment.
In fact, if you think about it, you can realize that the best equipment can still get in the way of customer use. It's like doing business: if an entrepreneur sells a product and then suddenly gives up, can he go to the customer's house and tell them they can't use it?Or, he can take the products away from the customer and say that the products are not for sale.
If you do this, I am afraid that the credibility of the entrepreneur will completely collapse. Therefore, there is no reason not to use the goods that have been sold, and there is no reason to take back the goods, at most to provide after-sales service, repair and maintenance of the equipment, etc.
And as is customary in the United States, all operational measures are directed against unsold equipment. These rules are in place before the merchant enters into a transaction with the client.
It can be seen that the United States will not interfere with the operation of the sold equipment, otherwise the lithography machine, as a globally networked equipment, may cause ASML to interrupt the operation of the equipment. This is more than the United States making great efforts to pull Japan and the Netherlands into cooperation, but the United States does not.
Therefore, as long as domestic manufacturers obtain enough lithography machines, they can complete the manufacturing of corresponding process chips.
SMIC and ASML have a long-term purchase agreement and a multibillion-dollar order for DUV lithography machines. According to ASML, the United States, Japan and the Netherlands have reached an agreement that will not affect revenues in 2023.
ASML still has time to continue delivering equipment and maintaining relationships with its customers, and expects sales to increase by 25 percent this year, with sales in China expected to reach 2.2 billion euros.
If that's the case, ASML will send about 100 lithography machines to China this year, which will be basically enough for the foreseeable future.
If you think about it, why ASML told the United States, Japan and the Netherlands to reach an agreement, apparently in order to get customers to rush to place orders. Maybe that's not a bad thing if ASML can fully meet the needs of its customers, at least it can be flexible enough to adapt to the market. Of course, if ASML can continue to supply, in the final analysis, it will be foreign technology.
At the same time, while maintaining cooperation, we must also adhere to self-research and technology development, increase independent research and development, and create our own future.
*And data** on the network, please verify the theory yourself, this article does not represent the author's point of view, if there is any infringement, please contact to delete, the final interpretation right belongs to this platform).