Since 2024, the situation in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been deteriorating dramatically. Tensions between Israel and Iran, Syria and Allah forces in Lebanon have intensified, with the Israeli defense minister even acknowledging that the Israeli army is currently operating on multiple fronts, and this tension has worsened in just a few days. At the same time, thousands of kilometres away in Yemen, where the Houthis still block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, similar to the situation in Gaza, the situation in the Red Sea region has recently changed. According to a number of domestic and foreign reports, 12 countries led by the United States issued an "ultimatum" to the Houthis, demanding that they immediately stop their attacks in the Red Sea, otherwise they will face "serious consequences".
At the G7 summit, it was reported that the United States has been putting pressure on the Houthis since they blockaded the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in December last year, and even formed a joint fleet with the participation of several European countries, and planned to carry out armed escort operations in the Red Sea. According to the report of the US side, during this period, the US military ** has sunk a number of Houthi warships. Among the 12 countries that issued the "ultimatum" this time, in addition to the United States and the United Kingdom, which had previously participated in the Red Sea escort, Germany and Japan, these two countries had not previously participated in the Red Sea escort operation. It is reported that this "ultimatum" is a decision made by the United States after weighing the pros and cons, and if the Houthis continue to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the US military may strike at it militarily to break the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Iran's official drone training footage shows how tense the situation is, and if it happens, it will be the most unfavorable situation for the United States. As a well-known militia in the Middle East, the Houthis are nicknamed the "Slipper Army", but their military strength should not be underestimated. In recent years, the Houthis have received large quantities of ballistic missiles and drones from Iran, making them the most missile-possessed power among the countries bordering the Red Sea. The Houthi army unit has inherited much of the military heritage of the former ** army and a large amount of Iranian aid, while also accumulating practical experience in the civil war in Yemen and the war against the Arab coalition. As a result, the Houthis are equally capable of attacking U.S. ships in the Red Sea, and Iran's "wolf pack tactics" at sea further complicate the situation. According to the US side, during this period, the US military has sunk a number of Houthi warships.
What is even more concerning is that in addition to the United States and the United Kingdom, which previously participated in the Red Sea escort, the 12 countries that issued the "ultimatum" this time also included Germany and Japan, which had not previously participated in the Red Sea escort operation. Although the U.S. military is equipped with a self-defense system that can defend itself against Houthi missile attacks to a certain extent, this is reflected in the fact that it has successfully intercepted Houthi drones and ballistic missiles several times in the past two months. However, it is worth noting that the Houthis did not carry out a substantial attack on the US military**. Although the number of missiles intercepted by the US military is extremely small, if the Houthis really launch an attack on **, they will inevitably adopt the method of saturation strikes and directly target the command ship and the main air defense ship. More importantly, no matter how clever the U.S. military's defense methods are, the U.S. military bases around Yemen cannot be easily relocated.
This is particularly evident at the Lemonnier base, which is the only permanent U.S. overseas military base in Africa, and its strategic value is self-evident. However, the base is only 160 kilometers from Yemen, and the vast majority of the Houthis** can pose a threat to it, making the US military almost helpless to defend against Houthi strikes. When it comes to the feasibility of a military strike by the US military against the Houthis, there is no doubt that it is possible. No matter how strong the Houthis are, the U.S. military can still use air superiority to carry out precision bombing of targets in its country. However, to achieve the goal of "preventing the Houthis from continuing to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait", the US military will have to strike at its missile launch positions. These positions are often located far further inland Yemen, so for the U.S. military to strike hard, it must penetrate deep into the interior of Yemen, which is undoubtedly fraught with risks.
If the Houthis secretly deploy air defense** in the relevant area, it is very likely that US warplanes will suffer losses when they carry out strikes, resulting in the failure of the strike. In addition, the Houthis, as a Shiite force, are geopolitically inextricably linked to Iran, and most of them come from Iran. In the event of a conflict between the Houthis, who can guarantee that Iran will not act?Compared with the Houthis, Iran is America's biggest adversary in the Middle East. However, since the United States has long since withdrawn its troops from the Middle East on a large scale and has been in a state of strategic contraction for many years, the United States has actually been at a disadvantage. U.S. actions in the Middle East have been shaped by a series of events, including the recent Israeli-Palestinian conflict and attacks on U.S. military bases across the Middle East by Iran and other Arc of Resistance members.
However, the United States has chosen to respond to these attacks in a cold manner, showing that it will struggle to respond to Iran's attacks in a timely manner after the massive withdrawal of troops in the Middle East. Therefore, if the United States chooses to fight the Houthis, it may invite retaliation from Iran, making the situation difficult to manage. Under the influence of these unfavorable factors, the best option for the United States at the moment is to continue to exert pressure in the Red Sea region, but at the same time avoid escalating the situation in order to prevent a direct conflict with the Houthis. Although the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is an important international thoroughfare, the cost of its blockade is acceptable for Western countries. Similar closures of important shipping lanes have occurred several times over the past few decades, such as the Suez Canal for eight years after the outbreak of the Six-Day War, but the impact on Europe and the United States has been modest. Even in the era of globalization, the impact of the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has not been enough to shake the foundations of Western countries.
Although Israel is the country most affected by the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the United States is not currently going to war with the Houthis or even Iran for Israel. In fact, the US position on Israel is already in a very delicate state. At the end of last year, Biden made the most "harsh" criticism of Israel since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and publicly demanded that Israel recognize the fact of the existence of a Palestinian state, which is also equivalent to asking Israel to recognize the two-state solution in disguise. This change in attitude is closely linked to Israel's failed military operations in Gaza. The United States hoped that the Israeli army would be able to quickly end the fighting in Gaza, but Israel failed to do so. Therefore, both in the Security Council and in the international community, the United States has been doing everything possible to prevent a ceasefire in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and has repeatedly connived at Israel's attacks on Palestinian civilians.
However, more than three months have passed, and the Israeli army has still not been able to occupy northern Gaza, and has even opened a new front in the south, bogging itself in the quagmire of war. The United States has become disillusioned with Israel, so they have had to push for a ceasefire in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to continue to support Israel and contain the damage. The USS Ford was evacuated from the Eastern Mediterranean at the beginning of the new year and had been urgently deployed to the Mediterranean to protect Israel's security. This withdrawal can be described as a demonstration of the new attitude of the United States towards the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Therefore, the United States actually does not care much about the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, on the contrary, they hope that through this move they will push Israel to end the war as soon as possible and avoid a military conflict with the Houthis. The United States simply needs to maintain a military presence in the Red Sea and make tough rhetoric against the Houthis in order to maintain its image as the "world's policeman" while avoiding the dilemma of being directly involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
As an extra-regional country, China has maintained a high degree of concern about the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and has always maintained an absolutely neutral position. At the regular press conference, a reporter asked why China did not issue a statement condemning the Houthis like the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom. In this regard, China's spokesman Wang Wenbin said that all parties should take the initiative to maintain the safety of shipping lanes in the Red Sea waters and play a constructive and responsible role. This sentence is actually an exhortation to the Houthis to take revenge on Israel not to continue to attack civilian ships, but also to warn the United States not to turn the Red Sea into a war zone by force, but to be a responsible country. China's absolute neutrality has well safeguarded its rights and interests in the region, and embodies the attitude of a truly responsible major country.
Although the United States has formed a joint fleet in the name of escort ships, this cannot hide the truth that it has disturbed regional peace and further complicated the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. It is hoped that the United States will re-examine the situation in the Middle East and refrain from creating a new military conflict in the Red Sea.