After the end of the New Year holiday, the DPRK created a major incident on the military demarcation line between the North and the South. On the afternoon of 5 January, the DPRK suddenly conducted a large-scale fire exercise in the waters north of the so-called northern boundary line between the DPRK and the ROK in the western part of the Korean Peninsula, firing more than 200 artillery shells in just a few dozen minutes. The scene is reminiscent of the November 23, 2010, artillery battle on Yeonpyeong Island, the largest military clash between the two Koreas around the northern boundary in decades. People are watching to see if the North Korean firepower test will turn into a second artillery battle on Yeonpyeong Island. Why did the DPRK choose to make a sudden attack on the northern boundary line between the two Koreas on the west coast of the DPRK at this time?The issue of the Northern Limit is actually related to the five islands of the West Sea between North Korea and South Korea. North Korea strongly resents the ownership of these islands, which were assigned to United States in the Korean War Armistice Agreement, and then to South Korea, while the U.S. military unilaterally drew the Northern Limit Line (NNNL), which was very favorable to it, and almost drew the line to North Korea's doorstep.
Since the 60s of the last century, there have been endless conflicts between the two Koreas over the northern limit and the five islands in the West Sea. In the fall of 1973, the West Sea Crisis occurred, and the North Korean Navy crossed the northern limit on a large scale, and South Korea actively responded, and the two sides relented after threatening each otherIn 1999, the first naval battle of Yeonpyeong Island broke out due to the fishery production problems between the North and the South, and the South Korean Navy sank a torpedo boat of the Korean People's Army Navy with technological superiority, killing 30 North Korean soldiersOn the morning of June 29, 2002, the Second Battle of Yeonpyeong Island broke out, when the Korean People's Army Navy attacked a South Korean Navy patrol ship in an ambush, and after 18 minutes of fierce fighting, sank the ship, killing four members of the South Korean Navy, including the captain, and wounding 18 others. These incidents have become military clashes between the two Koreas in the waters off Yeonpyeong Island. North Korea's test of firepower has attracted widespread attention, and there are concerns about whether it will turn into a second artillery battle on Yeonpyeong Island. A serious conflict broke out between the two Koreas over the Northern Boundary Line and the five islands in the West Sea, with the November 23, 2010 artillery battle on Yeonpyeong Island attracting particular attention. At that time, the ROK ** team conducted military exercises on the five islands in the West Sea and fired artillery in the direction of the DPRK, and the shells crossed the military demarcation line between the north and the south claimed by the DPRK.
The coastal artillery units of the Korean People's Army immediately launched a rapid fire attack and carried out a fierce artillery bombardment on Yeonpyeong Island, causing serious damage to the ROK team and a large number of artillery shells being fired by both sides, and the situation was very tense. However, in the years that followed, the five islands in the West Sea were largely calm. It is precisely because of this that in early 2024, North Korea once again shelled the five islands in the West Sea and the northern boundary line, which attracted widespread attention. So why did North Korea choose to attack Yeonpyeong Island again at this point in time?Will this round of clashes over the northern boundary line turn into a second artillery battle on Yeonpyeong Island?Let's start with the first question. From a tactical point of view, this is a matter of both microclimate and macroclimate. At the tactical level, South Korea's military exercises can be described as asking for trouble. As we saw in the first artillery battle of Yeonpyeong, mentioned earlier, the incident began when South Korea conducted military exercises near the five islands in the West Sea, causing artillery shells to fall into what North Korea considers to be northern waters. North Korea will certainly not sit idly by and will respond violently, but this time the response was too drastic and attracted the attention of the world. And this time it was the same.
South Korea took the lead in provoking, and on January 2, South Korea and the United States ** team conducted military exercises in Pocheon City, Cheorwon-gun and other places near DMZ in the demilitarized zone, and conducted fire drills. In addition, military exercises were also conducted in Ganghwa-gun, Gyeonggi-do, which is very close to the military demarcation line between the north and the south, and these two exercises were very close to North Korea, especially the exercises in Ganghwa-gun were almost on the tip of Kaesong's nose. Therefore, since the US-South Korean coalition is the first to provoke, North Korea will inevitably respond. In the face of a hard-line attitude, North Korea has responded with a tougher attitude. Strategic trust between North and South Korea has plummeted, and North Korea's policy goals have shifted dramatically. In the 2018 Panmunjom Joint Declaration, signed during the Moon Jae-in** era, the two Koreas pledged to reduce clashes along the military demarcation line between the North and the South, cease hostile propaganda, and withdraw from offensive **. However, after Yoon Suk-yeol** came to power, inter-Korean relations deteriorated rapidly. North Korea's launch of a military reconnaissance satellite on November 22, 2023, led Yoon Suk-yeol** to announce the suspension of the Panmunjom Declaration and resume hostile propaganda against North Korea. North Korea then responded on November 23 by announcing its withdrawal from the declaration, leaving relations between North and South Korea completely unconstrained.
At the 8th and 9th Plenary Sessions of the Workers' Party of Korea, Kim Jong Un redefined the relationship between the two Koreas, arguing that the two countries are no longer the same people, but between independent countries. This means that North Korea no longer sees South Korea as an independent state, but as part of the Southern puppet regime. Kim Yo, first vice minister of the DPRK Labor Commission, said in a statement on December 31 that North Korea had greatly misjudged its policy toward South Korea, pointing out that Moon's peace policy was only used to paralyze North Korea and did not benefit North Korea at all. As a result, North Korea will adopt a tougher policy toward South Korea. It is not surprising that South Korea is conducting military exercises along the North-South dividing line and North Korea is retaliating on Yeonpyeong Island, which is due to both microclimate and macroclimate. Yeonpyeong Island and the five islands of the West Sea are one of the few areas that are heavily disputed by North and South Korea in relation to the fire attacks of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that have been identified. Tests of fire in these places do not raise the possibility of war, as there is already a dispute between the two sides. In reality, this temptation only further amplifies or shrinks existing disputes, so the consequences can be controlled relatively easily. At the same time, the waters off Yeonpyeong Island are also one of the most well-prepared and well-constructed areas for the forward units of the Korean People's Army.
KPA units are also well established on these islands, such as the nearby Satsuon Naval Base, which is one of the most well-built naval bases for the KPA's West Sea Fleet. Therefore, the Korean People's Army chose Yeonpyeong Island to respond to South Korea's military exercises precisely because of these considerations. The various shooting elements on these islands are usually pre-set in advance, so once you need to **, you can only carry out the shooting with the elements, and there is no need to test fire, so the suddenness of the firepower is very strong. Although North Korea fired more than 200 shells in this incident, on the whole, its actions were quite restrained. All the shells fell north of the Northern Limit and did not directly bombard the islands under the actual control of South Korea. This suggests that North Korea is still responding with some reservations. The actual effect is not significant, and the political significance is far greater than the military significance. Therefore, if the South Korean side can act wisely and take the initiative to make concessions, the matter may be closed. But if the South Korean side continues to be tough, the situation will be difficult to say. There are still some follow-up developments in North Korea's provocation on Yeonpyeong Island, and there are still many unknown factors. We will have to wait for further reports.