In recent years, the real estate market has been a hot topic in society. In the face of the current property market trend, many people are paying attention to the development in the next few years. In a recent discussion, Xu Gao, chief economist of Bank of China International, made a compelling point, arguing that the real estate market will be oversupplied in the short term, but in the near future, supply and demand will reverse, and house prices may be **. However, this view has been questioned by many netizens, who believe that Xu Gao's argument is too one-sided and does not fully consider the total number of houses and vacancy. In order to have a more comprehensive understanding of the trend of the property market in the next five years, we will analyze and analyze the downward trend of the property market from three aspects: the irreversible downward trend of the property market, the reshuffle of real estate developers and the polarization of the commercial housing market.
In recent years, the property market has gradually shown a downward trend, mainly due to the serious surplus of housing. In addition, social phenomena such as aging, unmarried young people, and declining birthrates have also had an impact on the property market. These factors have made the property market lose its momentum, and even if various stimulus policies are introduced, the property market cannot recover. This trend is already evident today and is likely to continue in the coming years.
However, the downturn in the property market does not mean that all real estate companies will be hit hard. Those with stronger real estate companies will better adapt to the market environment, while those with less strength may be eliminated by the market. Economist Ren Zeping mentioned in the "Top Ten Chinese Economic Enterprises in 2023" that 90% of real estate companies will disappear in the future. This reshuffle effect will also have a profound impact on the property market.
In the past, the lucrative nature of the property market attracted many developers to get involved. However, with the downturn in the property market, even well-known real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden are facing difficulties. Therefore, in the next few years, real estate developers will usher in a major reshuffle. Only those real estate companies that are strong and adapt to market changes can survive.
From a macroeconomic point of view, this reshuffle is inevitable, as overexpansion and blind investment have led to a bubble in the real estate market. With the downward trend of the property market, the market will eliminate and survive the fittest of real estate enterprises, and further rectify and standardize the real estate market.
Recently, the "Guiding Opinions on Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing" adopted at the National Standing Committee has attracted widespread attention. According to this opinion, in the next five years, China will carry out pilot affordable housing in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million, providing 6 million units of affordable housing. This will lead to a polarization of the property market in the future.
On the one hand, large-scale commercial housing** will remain at a high level, as the market demand for them is still there. Small-sized commercial housing may face depreciation pressure, as many families will choose to apply for affordable housing rather than abandon the home purchase plan. This market differentiation will further exacerbate the housing price gap, and at the same time, it will also lead to the irrational allocation of market resources.
To sum up, the trend of the property market in the next 5 years is as follows: on the one hand, the general trend of the property market may not be reversed, and housing prices will continue to decline. On the other hand, real estate developers will usher in a reshuffle, and 90% of real estate companies may disappear in the future. In addition, there will be a clear "polarization" in the commercial housing market. If this is the case, then investors should be cautious about buying a home in the coming years, and investors should do a good job of risk assessment and planning.
In the development and change of the real estate market, we should not only pay attention to the opinions of various experts, but also form our own judgments through the analysis and observation of market data. For home buyers, buying a property is not only a major material decision, but also a financial plan that needs to be considered thoroughly. Therefore, in the face of complex property market conditions, we should be rational, comprehensively assess individual needs and market risks, and make informed decisions based on our own circumstances.
Regardless of the trend of the property market, buyers should pay attention to the quality of the house and the quality of life when choosing a property, not just the fluctuation of house prices. Only with high-quality properties can we provide a safe, comfortable and convenient living space for our occupants. In the process of buying a house, we need to carefully choose the right real estate, choose the right time to buy, and choose the appropriate way to buy a house and a loan according to our financial situation. I hope that every buyer can find the perfect property for themselves and realize their desire to live and work in peace and contentment.