Since the new season corn has been on the market, under the background of bumper yield expectations and sustained high import profits, the weather seems to have become one of the main factors affecting the rise and fall of domestic corn. According to the forecast, in the coming week, the main corn producing areas will once again usher in cooling and rain and snow weather. This article will provide a brief analysis.
In recent days, corn in North China ** in the reluctance to sell sentiment and the help of the weather, deep processing enterprises to the car volume decreased, weekend enterprises raised prices to promote income, today's rise began to slow down, except for some areas of Shandong, most areas affected by rain and snow weather, corn purchase and sales activities have come to a standstill, no obvious adjustment in the acquisition of enterprises.
Recently, the northeast region, which is more sensitive to the weather response of the market**, seems to be indifferent to this weather help. In addition to the slight increase in Liaoning under the influence of grassroots farmers' reluctance to sell and the strengthening of the mentality of merchants to raise prices, the tide grain in other regions increased slightly, while the dry grain was not smooth, and the corn was stable and weak.
From the point of view, with the drop in temperature and a wide range of rain and snow weather hit again, whether it is for logistics and transportation or the amount of new crops, it will have an adverse impact, although it will support corn in the short term, but it is negative for corn in the medium term. On the one hand, the stabilization and even the stabilization brought by the rainy and snowy weather did not help much to the actual trading volume; On the other hand, the rain and snow weather compresses the grain sales time before the year, and the selling pressure will also bring phased pressure to the market, especially in the northeast region, since the beginning of winter this year, there are more rain and snow weather, which means that the risk of corn mildew is increasing.
From the demand side, although the north has recently ushered in a wide range of snowfall, so that the local transportation has been restricted, the market has a certain bullish sentiment, but on the whole, the pig ** still shows a pattern of oversupply, the signs of demand improvement before the year have not yet taken shape, and the market is still waiting for the advancement of the pickling process. Therefore, feed breeding enterprises do not have a high intention to purchase raw corn, and imported corn in the southern sales area has arrived, suppressing corn.
In terms of deep processing enterprises, profits as a whole show a downward trend, but fortunately, the profitability of deep processing enterprises is acceptable, in the short term, affected by the weather and reluctance to sell, raw corn is insufficient, or drive deep processing enterprises to maintain a strong trend of finished products, but the increase is limited. However, for the domestic corn market, it is unrealistic and impossible to rely on deep processing enterprises to support the entire market.
In terms of regions, the amount of grassroots in the northeast may increase slowly in the near future, and the downstream whether it is the first enterprise or the terminal grain enterprise, the mentality is more cautious, especially the speed of dry grain shipment is difficult to improve significantly temporarily, and it is expected that the corn in the northeast will still fall slightly in the short term.
North China, this week will continue to be affected by rain and snow weather, whether it is the first enterprise or deep processing enterprises, the purchase volume is showing a downward trend, driven by this, the grain point corn purchase will be weak, and deep processing enterprises still have a narrow space.
For the southern sales area, the current breeding profits are not good, and the terminal consumption is difficult to have a significant improvement expectation, and the raw corn and imported corn are abundant, and it is expected that in the short term, the southern corn is also easy to fall and difficult to rise.
To sum up, as the year is approaching, although there is a new round of weather assistance, it is still difficult to make the domestic corn trend only by weather factors. The current market will still be in the "tug-of-war" stage of the supply and demand game. The current market is waiting for the start of stocking before the year, but the recent weather changes have made this trend more variable!
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