How to ensure that the economy continues to improve and achieve the expected goals?Let's take a look at ***'s answer.
On December 19th, the December press conference was held. ** said that we have the conditions and ability to promote the continuous improvement of economic operation, the continuous enhancement of endogenous momentum, the continuous improvement of social expectations, the continuous resolution of risks and hidden dangers, and the successful completion of the main expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year.
After the economic work conference, all departments are learning to Xi convey the spirit of the meeting.
In previous years, the annual system work conference was held immediately after the economic work conference to deploy next year's work. This year, the meeting was a few days late.
From December 17 to 18, the National Development and Reform Work Conference was held, and the key tasks of development and reform in 2024 were arranged: First, further strengthen economic analysis and policy research, and consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery. Strengthen economic monitoring, early warning and policy pre-research reserves, strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools, increase macroeconomic regulation and control, strengthen policy coordination, strengthen evaluation and supervision, and do a good job in the economic situation and policy publicity and interpretation. The second is to further give full play to the guiding role of medium- and long-term planning and annual plans, and effectively promote the effective implementation of major national strategic deployments. Actively promote major strategic annual key tasks such as new urbanization, rural revitalization, and regional coordinated development. The third is to further make good use of all kinds of funds to strengthen project construction and better play the key role of effective investment. Fourth, we will further deepen reform in an all-round way, strengthen innovation-driven, and continue to stimulate the vitality of economic development. Fifth, we will further strengthen comprehensive planning and balance, promote the coordination of high-quality development and high-level security, and achieve new results in promoting carbon reduction, pollution reduction and green growth. (See FOST Financial Morning Post, December 19).
The spokesperson mainly introduced the deployment of next year's work at the system meeting. Among them, it mentions "doing a good job in policy pre-research reserves, and preparing sufficient policy tools to deal with various risks and challenges." β
What does it mean to do a good job in policy pre-research reserves?
We believe that next year's economy is facing a certain downward pressure, especially in the first quarter of the economic growth rate will be significantly slower than the fourth quarter of this year, the relevant departments need to be prepared to increase regulation and control in the first half of next year.
The spokesman mentioned that "we will coordinate the comprehensive revitalization of new urbanization and rural areas, comprehensively promote rural revitalization, put the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population in a more prominent position, and promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas." βγIt is expected that next year, we will accelerate the promotion of new urbanization and the comprehensive revitalization of rural areas, and the urbanization of the agricultural transfer population.
The spokesman mentioned that "we will continue to improve the implementation of the 'two unwavering' systems and mechanisms, deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, and promote the development and growth of the private economy." "We believe that after the establishment of the Private Economic Development Bureau, we should take the lead in promoting the implementation and formulation of policies to promote the development of the private economy. Judging from the current signal, I don't see any new ideas, and at present, the focus is on implementing the opinions issued by the senior management in the middle of the year.
In terms of economic trends, we expect GDP to grow by 5. year-on-year in the fourth quarter as the November economic data exceeded expectationsAbout 7%, with an annual growth of 53 or so. Due to the impact of the base, we expect that the year-on-year GDP growth rate in the first quarter of next year will decline significantly, and it is currently expected to grow by 44-4.8%, the growth rate is about one percentage point slower than the fourth quarter of this year. Therefore, the pressure to ensure the start of next year's economy is relatively great. This pressure will gradually emerge in the first quarter of next year.