Editor's note. In the past year, China's economy has rebounded and made solid progress in high-quality development. Looking ahead to 2024, a number of international institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth, believing that China will remain the main driver of global economic recovery. ** The economic work conference also made it clear that the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed, and confidence and confidence should be enhanced. As a key year to achieve the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan, what is the economic situation in 2024?How to consolidate the upward trend of the economy?In this issue, we have compiled the views of 10 experts for the benefit of readers.
2024 is a year of recovery for economic growth.
In 2023, China's economy has made steady progress in the face of challenges such as insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, and weak social expectations. Looking ahead to 2024, experts generally believe that China's economy will continue to maintain stable growth, driven by increased macroeconomic policy support and deepening industrial upgrading, as domestic demand recovers further. China's economic growth is expected to reach about 5% in 2024, and new progress will be made in the high-quality development of China's economy. At the same time, experts pointed out that at present, China's economic operation is still recoverative, and there are problems such as insufficient endogenous power, new obstacles to transformation and upgrading, and new difficulties in high-quality development.
Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that China's economy in 2024 will actually be more difficult than in 2023, and 2024 will be a critical year for China's economy to return to a reasonable range. China's potential economic growth level should be above 5%, and China's economy should be able to grow by about 5% on a high base in 2024 or lay the foundation for 5% growth. However, he pointed out that the most important problem at present is the lack of domestic demand, and comprehensive measures will be taken to domestic demand in 2024. The policy of expanding demand in the short term is mainly in investment, and in the medium term, it will truly solve the problem of bulk consumption such as the automobile market, the property market, and electronic products, and the problem of reform and risk prevention will be solved in the long term. At the same time, global economic growth is below equilibrium, and insufficient demand is a global phenomenon, which has also led to difficulties for the Chinese economy.
**Yao Jingyuan, special researcher of the Counsellor's Office and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, emphasized that the three "stability" of stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth and stabilizing employment interact with the four "progress" of changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving the quality and increasing the efficiency, and it is necessary to continuously consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement through the seven tasks of "3+4". He believes that China's high-quality economic development will achieve remarkable new achievements in 2024.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase China, believes that in 2023
In the second and third quarters of the year, China's GDP (gross domestic product) deflator was in the negative rangeIn November 2023, the national household consumption** (CPI) decreased by 05%, the national industrial producers** (PPI) fell by 3% year-on-year, in the post-epidemic era, China's supply-side recovery is fast and stable, but the demand-side recovery is lagging and weak. He expects China's economy to grow by 4 percent in 20249%, consumption may contribute two-thirds of the growth rate. In addition, it is expected that China's exports will still face great pressure in 2024.
Li Daokui, dean of the Institute of Chinese Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, believes that the biggest possibility in 2024 is a year of recovery of growth, and it is also a year of adjustment and start-up. First, the international situation is expected to ease in 2024, which is generally good for stabilizing the economy. Second, policy adjustments will be further introduced. Overall, in 2024, China will make great efforts to stabilize growth and reduce risks. However, although the prospects and potential of China's economic growth are still huge, and a consensus on economic policy adjustment is forming, it still faces problems such as the transformation of the real estate industry, lack of consumer confidence, and local government bonds.
Zhang Ming, deputy director of the Institute of Finance and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, believes that China's macroeconomic growth is in the process of repairing itself, and China is introducing a package of policies to prevent and resolve systemic financial risks. China's economic growth in 2024 will be significantly better than in 2023, and the gap between the feelings of micro entities such as households and enterprises and macroeconomic growth is also expected to narrow significantly in 2024. China's GDP growth is expected to reach 5% in 2024, and CPI growth is expected to reach 2%, which is worth looking forward to.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that 2023 is the first year of China's post-epidemic recovery, with a smooth transition in epidemic prevention and control in the first quarter, a rapid release of pent-up demand, and a good start, but then weakenedAbout 2%. Looking forward to 2024, with the easing of the international environment, the restoration of internal vitality and the intensification of policy regulation, the economic growth rate will gradually converge to the potential level, and it is expected that the economic growth in 2024 may reach 48% or so level. In 2024, the year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment may be about 5%, of which infrastructure investment will increase by about 5% year-on-year, and manufacturing investment will increase by about 7% year-on-year. Unfavorable factors such as "weak demand, low demand, high inventory, and declining profits" are expected to improve simultaneously, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to rebound to about 7% in 2024.
Liu Ying, director of the cooperative research department of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of Chinese, believes that the economic growth target in 2024 is expected to be set at about 5%, which is also conducive to boosting confidence, although the 5% growth rate in 2024 has different meanings from the 5% growth rate in 2023, the 5% in 2024 is the growth rate on the basis of the growth rate of about 5% in 2023, and the 5% in 2023 is achieved at a low growth rate of 3% in 2022. However, she stressed that there are currently problems such as sluggish domestic demand, insufficient effective demand, and insufficient consumer confidence. But in a critical period of economic recovery, confidence is more important than **. At present, there is still considerable room for China's economy to adjust the strength of macroeconomic policies in a counter-cyclical or cross-cyclical manner.
Consumption recovery is a key variable in 2024.
As a key year to achieve the goals and tasks of the 14th Five-Year Plan, how to consolidate the economic recovery in 2024 has attracted much attention. Experts generally believe that the steady movement of the "troika" will be conducive to driving the economic rebound, emphasizing the fundamental role of consumption, the key role of investment and the supporting role of exports, especially pointing out that the recovery of consumption is the key variable in 2024. Some experts believe that to achieve a high level of self-reliance and self-improvement in China's economy and to build a new development pattern, it is necessary to accelerate the formation of new quality productive forces. Some experts also believe that more active macroeconomic policies should be adopted to strengthen expectations and boost confidence, and to achieve "stability" in economic development through the "advancement" of macroeconomic policies.
**Yao Jingyuan, a special researcher of the Counsellor's Office and former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that in 2024, to stimulate economic growth, it is still necessary to play the basic role of consumption, the key role of investment and the supporting role of exports. He pointed out that China is the world's second largest economy and has the world's largest domestic demand market, so it is necessary to let consumption play a better role as a foundation and play a greater role in China's economic growth. In terms of investment, infrastructure investment related to people's livelihood and well-being, and promoting industrial technological transformation and equipment renewal are all investment needs. In particular, by improving the level of industrial equipment and technology, we will promote a new round of industrial technological revolution, digitalization and high-quality development. In terms of real estate investment, it will remain in a state of recovery in 2024, focusing on promoting the "three major projects" of affordable housing, urban village renovation and "level-emergency dual-use" public infrastructure construction. At the same time, real estate will drive the upstream and downstream industrial chains such as steel, cement, building materials, furniture and electrical appliances, and there is still considerable room for 2024. In terms of foreign trade import and export, it is necessary to change thinking and build a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual cycles promoting each other.
Zhang Yansheng, chief researcher of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, believes that to further promote China's economy to "stabilize and improve", in the short term, we should continue to expand investmentIn the medium term, it is necessary to "focus on mass consumption";In the long run, it depends on reform and risk prevention. He pointed out that infrastructure investment and public service facilities to meet the people's needs for a better life require a lot of investment, which is the growth space for future investment. In order for consumption to truly become the driving force for the economy, it is necessary to increase the disposable income of residents, increase the proportion of disposable income of residents in GDP, improve labor productivity, improve total factor productivity, and reduce the cost of education, medical care, housing, pension and so on, so that the people have no worries. The Chinese market is still a strong attraction for foreign investment, and foreign investment in China depends on China's economic prospects. In order to further attract foreign investment, it is necessary to minimize the "geopoliticization" of economic issues, create a peaceful and stable external environment, and further improve the convenience of investment and business in terms of visas and flights.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, believes that in 2024, under the trend of gradual improvement in residents' income and willingness to consume, the superimposed pro-consumption policies will continue to exert force, and the foundation for consumption recovery will continue to be consolidated, which is conducive to fully releasing consumption potential and stabilizing consumption. Manufacturing investment has rebounding momentum. In the process of transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, strategic emerging industries such as high-end manufacturing, intelligent manufacturing, and green transformation have long-term investment potential. The export market share is expected to remain stable, and the stabilization and rebound of exports will become a supporting factor for exports. On the one hand, China will continue to consolidate and expand the "circle of friends" of foreign trade, which will help the export market share to remain stable in 2024On the other hand, it is expected that exports will enter an upward channel in 2024, and the export volume will turn from drag to support.
Liu Ying, director of the cooperative research department of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies of Chinese University, believes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic position to promote growth, and consumption and investment are not only the two troikas driving China's economic growth, but also the two sides of the economy. She pointed out that in order to stimulate the economy at present, we must first start from the consumption side, stimulate consumption through the issuance of consumption vouchers and other means, drive the growth of enterprise orders, and then drive the increase in investment and economic growth. From the monetary side, China has also cut the RRR and interest rates many times this year, promoting the decline of corporate financing costs, so that enterprises have more confidence to invest, and then employees will have more income, and consumer confidence will also increase accordingly, so consumption and investment are a pair of mutually causal and complementary relationships.
Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JPMorgan Chase China, believes that 2024
Annual real consumption growth is likely to slow to 6%, with a slower contribution to the economy by 33 percentage points, or two-thirds of the growth contribution. Therefore, the recovery of consumption is a key variable in 2024, especially whether middle-income households can stabilize and repair as soon as possible. Efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and demand promote each other. However, it is expected that measures such as the issuance of consumption vouchers and cash payments are unlikely to be introduced. At the end of July 2023, the state issued support policies for automobiles, home furnishings and cultural tourism consumption, which is also a policy direction that can be considered in 2024.
Feng Xuming, director of the Macroeconomic Think Tank Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that in the case of a complex and changeable external environment and increasing internal challenges, "stability" is the foundation. In the critical period of climbing over hurdles, "progress" is the direction and motivation. Only by accelerating the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure and accelerating the cultivation of new growth points can we effectively hedge the downward pressure on the economy and stabilize the macroeconomy. Under the current situation, the lack of market expectations and confidence has constrained economic development, and it is necessary to adopt more active macroeconomic policies to strengthen expectations and boost confidence, so as to achieve "stability" in economic development with the "advancement" of macroeconomic policies.
He Daixin, director of the Fiscal Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Financial and Economic Strategy, believes that the ** Economic Work Conference will set the policy orientation for 2024 and continue to consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement by continuing to implement a proactive fiscal policy. **Investment is still an important starting point, and at the same time, we should pay attention to the rational arrangement of investment scale and give full play to the amplification effect of economic growth. Balanced development covers the horizontal balance between regions and the vertical balance between regions. To this end, the government will also increase the intensity of balanced transfer payments, and firmly consolidate the bottom line of the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level. Under the cycle of tight fiscal balance, it is necessary to pay more attention to improving the efficiency of funds and policy effects by promoting the legalization, scientificization, standardization, and standardization of financial management. He stressed that the proactive fiscal policy in 2024 will effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth.
*Zhang Zhanbin, director of the Center for Chinese Modernization Studies at the Party School (National Academy of Administration), believes that in order for China's economy to achieve a high level of self-reliance and self-improvement and build a new development pattern in the future, it is necessary to accelerate the formation of new quality productive forces. He pointed out that a high level of self-reliance and self-improvement is to a large extent a call for this kind of new quality of productive forces, and it is necessary for the new quality of productive forces to boost and assist in order to be able to seize the commanding heights. In addition, disruptive technology and cutting-edge technology need to be combined with industry, that is, the scientific and technological revolution and the industrial revolution should be integrated and driven by two wheels. Therefore, in recent years, the state has been emphasizing how to closely integrate these advanced technologies with the process of marketization and commercialization to form real productive forces.
Reporter Li Xiaohong compiled according to public information).