The annual ** economic work conference has come to an end. This year is a year of economic recovery after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control, with many difficulties and challenges, and a lot of targeted policies have been introduced, and the effects are gradually emerging.
* The economic work conference is very important to set the tone for next year's economic development. What do you think of the important signals released by this year's economic work conference? What about all aspects of China's economy next year? "News 1 1" connected with Zhu Min, vice chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former vice president of the International Monetary Organization, to pay attention to: How to set the tone of China's economy in 2024?
How do you view the practical relevance of the meeting in the face of next year's economy?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: The annual economic work conference is to summarize the year and set the tone for the future. Speaking of summarizing the year, looking at it now, I think that the economy has basically stabilized, our economic growth has been able to go to more than 5, consumption has also increased by more than 6, and investment, especially industrial investment, has grown by 6, so it is not easy to stabilize. On this basis, we look at the future, and there are two dimensions that are important. The international situation remains grim. Because the world is in a cycle of economic downturn, and it is in a cycle of financial easing to tightening, the two add up, so it is still very tight. This year, the global economic growth is only about 3 to 3 1, and next year it will fall to about 2 7 to 2 8, and it is likely to continue to decline, and the level of interest rates will still be relatively high. Therefore, China's external demand, capital flows, etc., will have a great impact, so the international situation is still grim. China's economy as a whole is also in two dimensions, one dimension is that the overall economic growth is in the downward range, this is because after 30 years of rapid growth, we have entered the middle-income stage, including aging, so the economic growth rate is naturally declining, and the potential growth level is also declining. At the same time, the structure of our economic growth is undergoing a major adjustment, and we are moving from the traditional growth model dominated by investment in real estate and exports to a new growth model dominated by consumption, advanced manufacturing and carbon neutrality. In this process, in the face of the grim international situation, it is particularly important to re-look at how 2024 will develop and how to set the tone under the prospect of stabilizing this year.
The meeting set the tone for next year's nine major tasks, why should scientific and technological innovation lead the construction of a modern industrial system in the first article?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: Among the nine major tasks, the combination of scientific and technological innovation and emerging industries has not been mentioned before. China's manufacturing industry is China's core competitiveness, China's manufacturing industry accounts for 3 3 of the global manufacturing industry, is the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea combined, which is China's core competition. Therefore, it is particularly important to maintain the scale and capacity efficiency of China's manufacturing industry, as well as its technological development. Especially in the current situation of geopolitical instability and "decoupling", we are keeping the world moving closer to us by maintaining the strength of the manufacturing industry. Therefore, the first one links scientific and technological innovation with emerging industries, which is particularly important, and this is a particularly big signal. Because China's manufacturing enterprises include thousands of large and medium-sized enterprises, this tells everyone that there is still a lot of room for future development, and all policies must move closer to this direction, and the future direction of the manufacturing industry is science and technology, green and digital. This will push China's manufacturing industry forward by a big step, and I think the first of the nine is particularly important.
How do you look at the "progress to promote stability" in "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking"?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: The proposal of "promoting stability through progress" actually requires us to promote economic development with a more positive and enterprising attitude and from the direction of moving forward. Because in the past 40 years, it has basically been a change in the growth-driven structure; But today, we want to promote economic growth through structural changes, so the momentum of the entire economy is changing. Under such circumstances, we must promote structural reform and economic growth with an enterprising attitude and the strategic positioning of scientific and technological innovation and development at the forefront of the world, so as to achieve stability. Therefore, "promoting stability with progress" is a particularly positive tone in the ** economic work conference, and it is also to encourage our enterprises, our **, and our individuals to take positive actions to get a balance and stability in the dynamic through proactive progress in 2024.
How do you look at the "first establishment and then breaking" in "seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking"?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: "Establish first and then break" is also particularly important, because in the process of structural transformation, the old kinetic energy is disappearing, and the new kinetic energy is rising. In this process, the old kinetic energy can be removed and the new one can be built, or the new one can be gradually digested after the new one is raised. So from now on, it is particularly clear that the new kinetic energy should rise first, and then gradually digest the old kinetic energy. There are many new aspects, and when we move forward, we must put risk prevention in front, first set up new kinetic energy, and then gradually digest the old kinetic energy.
How to understand that fiscal policy should be moderately strengthened and monetary policy should be precise and effective?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: The fiscal policy is more active, which is consistent with many studies and observations, and I think this point is particularly important. Because we still have fiscal space, especially in a countercyclical adjustment, fiscal policy has to play a major role. However, while the fiscal is more active, it should pay attention to several dimensions: It is necessary to support new drivers more, such as scientific and technological innovation, new manufacturing, and carbon neutral transformation. Because of the aging population, we need to focus more on social expenditures, such as health care, insurance, education, etc., as well as services for the elderly. Therefore, when the fiscal force is strengthened, it does not mean that we need to increase investment in infrastructure, but we need to support new industries at the frontier of science and technology, as well as support for society, which I think is a very important aspect of fiscal strengthening. Monetary policy is particularly cautious and talks about "precision", in fact, precision refers to structural monetary policy, that is, to increase support for new industries and future development prospects in monetary policy, which I think is also very important. Our structural monetary policy has now accounted for about 7 trillion yuan, which has accounted for about 15 percent of the central bank's balance sheet, but there is still room. Therefore, the combination of fiscal and monetary policies to leverage more financing towards innovation, future development, and small and medium-sized enterprises is particularly emphasized in macro policy coordination.
How to understand the emphasis on "enhancing the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation" in the meeting?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: This is a particularly real problem, when China passes the GDP per capita reaches 12,000 US dollars, moves from a low-income country to a middle-income country, and then moves towards a high-income country, it will face a series of challenges. For example, it is necessary to increase labor productivity while maintaining growth, to increase the construction of social safety nets, to improve human capital, to increase employment, to reduce income inequality so that everyone can share in growth, and in today's geopolitical situation, to face security issues. These different goals are important and are problems that we have observed in the history of many countries in the world. Under such circumstances, we should look at the coordination of a comprehensive economic policy from a simple economic growth, and we still have to put economic growth in a particularly important position, but at the same time, the policy should take into account several aspects. Therefore, in 2024 and in the next few years, the coordination of macroeconomic policies is actually a particularly important task.
How do you view the emphasis on the implementation of a number of specific measures for the private economy in the meeting?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: China's private economy has a very strong vitality, and judging from this year's data, it is really not easy. For example, the most direct figure, we look at the proportion of the private economy in the first month, their exports this year increased by 6, and the overall growth of the first year is almost very small, so the ability of the private economy to export is very strong, so the proportion of the private economy in the entire export increased from 50 to 53 1, so China's private economy has a strong adaptability and vitality. In this case, we still need the support of policies in all aspects to let the private economy play a greater role. The private economy is the main contributor to GDP and employment, and we now see that the private economy also contributes about 70 percent of innovation, and the role of the private economy is also very important when China moves towards an innovative economy. We hope that in 2024, the policies for the private economy can be implemented, and the strong competitiveness of the private economy can be gradually brought into play to support the steady development of China's economy in a positive and enterprising manner.
How do you see the emphasis on employment priority in the meeting?
Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and Former Vice President of the International Monetary Organization: Employment is a very fundamental importance, because employment is a very core part of labor productivity improvement, and I think this is the production of new labor force. The second is that after the Chinese population reaches its peak, our population will no longer grow. Therefore, in this case, the quality of people has become important, and the use of existing talents and their full employment is a particularly important cornerstone for the future development of China's economy. At the same time as employment, we are also facing huge structural changes, especially the development of science and technology. Therefore, in the whole great change, special emphasis is placed on putting employment first, one is the needs of China's economy, and the second is to be especially responsible for the next generation and the next generation of young people, so that they can have a good starting point, find a good job after graduating from university, and gradually contribute to the society and the economy, which is particularly important. Therefore, 2024 will be an important task for employment, especially for young people.