Let's take a look at the excess deaths due to influenza per 100,000 in the epidemic retrospective study. The figure below is from "Global Mortality Rates Associated with Seasonal Influenza Epidemics: New Burden Estimates from the Glamor Project and **" which is an article from 2019 before the pandemic.
Figure a panel aAge less than 65 years panel bAge 65 years.
World map of average excess mortality associated with seasonal influenza per 100,000 population, by country.
In this graph, the average for China in Figure A is 125 people, 55 people in Figure B, influenza causes more than 43 times more deaths in the elderly population over 65 years of age than young and middle-aged people, 32 times more in the United States, 27 times in India, 19 times in Europe as a whole, and 17 times more in Africa.
It is also found that in 2011, China accounted for 19 of the participating countries in the WHO's Western Pacific Region, 2004-2010 global ** that used estimates of influenza-related respiratory mortality3%, slightly higher than the proportion of the population (about 17%) [1].
We further found that two-thirds (67%) of seasonal influenza deaths occur in people aged 65 but vary widely by region – from 36% in sub-Saharan Africa to 86% in Europe;These differences may be driven by regional differences in baseline mortality, age structure, and socio-demographic development. Influenza-related mortality is 26 times higher in people over 65 years of age < 65 years, highlighting the greater burden of seasonal influenza among older adults and the importance of this age group for remission. ”【1】
According to the "Summary of the Influenza Epidemic in China (as of December 10, 2023)" from the National Influenza Center of the Institute for Viral Disease Prevention and Control of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2] the increase in the positive rate of influenza virus tests in southern and northern provinces slowed down this week, and some provinces showed a downward trend. The A(H3N2) subtype is the dominant type, followed by the B (Victoria) lineage. In week 49 of 2023 (4/12/2023 to 10/12/2023), the sentinel hospital in the southern province reported an ili% of 91%, higher than the previous week's level (8.).7%), which is higher than the level of the same period in 2020 2022. 0% and 37%）。In week 49, 2023, the ili% reported by Sentinel Hospital in Northern Province was 77%, up from the previous week's level (7.).5%), which is higher than the level of the same period in 2020 2022. 4% and 26%）。Now this winter's flu is only in the beginning, and it will take time to fall back to the 4% level, which is difficult.
According to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on December 15, the number of flu cases in the United States continues to rise, with an estimated at least 3.7 million flu cases, including about 2,300 deaths. In the week leading up to December 9, there were more than 7,000 new hospitalizations for influenza and 2 deaths from childhood influenza. A total of 14 childhood influenza deaths were reported in China and the United States during the 2023-2024 seasonal influenza season. Getting a flu vaccine every year is the best way to prevent the flu. Vaccination not only prevents influenza virus infection, but also prevents severe disease. The US CDC recommends annual flu vaccination for people aged 6 months and older. The peak of influenza in the United States is from December to February of the following year. As can be seen from the figure below, in the 2019 influenza season, the number of influenza infections was between 15 million and 21 million, and the number of deaths was between 8,200 and 20,000.
The picture above is from the network, it may be CDC, **not verified!）
Of the 29 countries and territories reporting data this week in the WHO European Region, 16 countries and territories have higher than baseline rates of influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARIs) in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), which launched the weekly European Summary of Respiratory Virus Surveillance (ERVISS)[5]. While there are differences between countries at the regional level, influenza activity continues to increase and is approaching the 10% positive prevalence threshold. Novel coronavirus activity remained at a high level, but declined slightly. RSV activity continues to rise, albeit at a slower pace than in previous weeks.
The picture above is erviss**, light blue is the flu, green is the coronavirus, and purple is RSV).
In the winter of 2023 in the southern hemisphere, there is no particularly significant influenza epidemic, the figure below is to show the global average, China and some countries in the southern hemisphere, Nigeria, Congo, South Africa, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, only Australia and South Africa in the southern hemisphere have had influenza outbreaks in July. And Latin America does not!!
The image above is from Flunet by WHO).
In September 2023, the CDC released the results of an interim analysis that showed that the southern hemisphere influenza vaccination reduced the risk of hospitalization by half!Since 2013, several countries have participated in the Pan American Health Organization's (PAHO) Latin American and Caribbean Regional Network for Evaluating Vaccine Effectiveness, Influenza (Revelac I), to assess and monitor the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing severe acute respiratory infections (SARI)-related hospitalizations. Based on data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay on 2,780 patients with SARS who were hospitalized between March 27 and July 9, 2023, and analysed the vaccine protection effect (VE). According to statistics, the influenza vaccine provided for the 2023 southern hemisphere influenza season had a (vaccine efficacy) VE of 51 for hospitalizations with severe acute respiratory syndrome associated with any type of influenza virus9%, of which the VE for the dominant A(H1N1PDM09) is 552%。The results suggest that influenza vaccination significantly reduces the risk of severe influenza disease, highlighting the benefits of influenza vaccination. Given the spread of influenza viruses in the Northern Hemisphere, the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend that health departments encourage health care providers to vaccinate all eligible people annually, with particular emphasis on the importance of vaccination for people at increased risk of severe outcomes (e.g., very young children, people with adverse health conditions [including pregnant women], and the elderly). 【6】
If calculated according to the penetration rate of influenza vaccine among susceptible populations (the elderly, children) in China, the annual vaccination volume of influenza vaccine is expected to reach 3-400 million doses, and in 2021 it will be 06.3 billion doses.
Looking back on history, in March 2022, the White House released a plan to live with the virus, marking the full liberalization of the country's epidemic prevention and control policies. After October 2022, the United States experienced a "triple epidemic" with a simultaneous surge in COVID, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections. The 2022-2023 flu season has caused at least about 25 million infections, according to the US CDC. Among them, 280,000 were hospitalized and 1 diedThe number of hospitalizations of 80,000 may be the highest in the past 10 years.
Although since October 2023, there have been mixed, superimposed, and successive infections of rhinovirus, mycoplasma, and influenza in large cities, looking at the world, this is not the so-called "triple epidemic" after the epidemic is liberalized, and the future situation is unpredictable, especially the flu. The individual is the first person responsible for health, and now in response to the propaganda of all walks of life, lobbying the elderly at home, I feel that it is not too late to get vaccinated against the new crown and influenza
References: 1] Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: new burden estimates and predictors from the Glamor project, published online 2019 Oct 22 doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421。
6] Vaccine Success Stories in the Southern Hemisphere: How to Halv the Risk of Hospitalization, Shao Yinan 2023-09-15