Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party's largest faction, the "** faction" (also known as the "Seiwa Policy Research Association"), was exposed to use a political fundraising dinner to secretly withdraw the deduction, and the "five-member core group", the real power figures in the "* faction", were all involved in the case, and none of them were spared, and the incident snowballed. In addition, according to relevant personnel in Japan, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may remove all cabinet ministers, vice ministers and political officials (collectively referred to as the three important positions of government affairs) of the "** faction" on the 14th, a total of 15 people, including 4 cabinet members.
In response to these questions, Mr. Mao Feng, a special observer of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Tokyo, brought an exclusive interpretation. The following is a transcript of the interview:
Fumio Kishida and Hirokazu Matsuno Source: Associated Press.
Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News: The political donation scandal involves a wide range of aspects that have attracted the attention of the outside world, especially the four main members of Kishida's cabinet, all of whom are members of the "** faction", is there a shadow of political manipulation in this?
Mao Feng, a special observer of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Tokyo: At present, the personnel of the "** faction" who are suspected of concealing the sale of fund-raising "banquet coupons" and receiving kickbacks are the core backbones of the "** faction", that is, the "five-person core group". Within the LDP, about half of the 99 members of the "faction" are likely to be involved in receiving or concealing the amount of kickbacks.
The amount of political donations involved is about 100 million yen (about 4.87 million yuan), and with the comprehensive investigation of the criminal case filed by the Tokyo District Prosecutor's Special Investigation Department, this political turmoil will continue to have a larger, or potentially difficult development trend, so it cannot be ruled out that there is a bigger black hole in the issue of political donations from the Liberal Democratic Party.
Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News: The timing of the political donation scandal and the timing of the investigation are intriguing, and what kind of blow will it cause to the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party?
Mao Feng, special observer of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Tokyo: According to my observations, this is a major political storm in Nagata Town (where the Japanese Prime Minister's Office and residence are located), and there are several unusual features: surprise, targeting, and seriousness, and of course there must be political calculations behind it.
The surprise nature refers to the large-scale coverage that began on December 8, and started with the backbone of the "** faction", that is, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hiroyuki Matsuno, and then quickly expanded and spread to the five core leaders who are currently in charge of the "** faction" within a few days. In fact, a few days before the conclusion of the current session of the Diet, that is, after the Diet on December 13, the Tokyo Special Investigation Department will quickly launch an investigation, and even do not rule out the arrest of the suspected lawmakers.
Targeted, that is, the firepower of ** is mostly concentrated in the five core members who currently dominate the "** faction", who are not only the core figures of the actual leadership of the "** faction", but also hold important incumbents in the Kishida administration, the Liberal Democratic Party, or the Diet. If it is true that the "** faction" conceals the issue of political kickbacks, the power or prestige of the "* faction" will be greatly weakened. The Tokyo Special Investigation Department also recruited 50 prosecutors from all over the country to participate in the investigation, which also highlights the sudden and extraordinary action of the Tokyo Special Investigation Department.
The seriousness lies in the fact that the approval rating of the Kishida regime may also be due to the political donation scandal, so in order to stop the loss as much as possible, Prime Minister Kishida plans to remove all the high-level personnel of the "** faction". However, the operation of the Kishida regime needs the support of the largest faction, the "** faction", and the loss of the support of the "** faction" will bring a severe test to the Kishida administration.
Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News: 30% has always been regarded as the "dead line" of the Japanese prime minister, after Fumio Kishida's approval rating has been hovering at 30%, affected by the recent political donation scandal, and now it has fallen below the "dead line", will Fumio Kishida take the blame and resign?
Mao Feng, special observer of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Tokyo: Under normal circumstances, Kishida should also take the blame for resigning, but according to my current observation, Kishida will not resign at present, and he will not announce the dissolution of the House of Representatives**. Because the current period is the most difficult and lowest ebbation for the Kishida administration, he will definitely not choose such an opportunity to change the regime.
Kishida made a reservation for the "** faction" to cut off other factions, including his own faction, that is, he announced on December 7 that he would no longer serve as the chairman of the "Kishida faction". Therefore, from this point of view, the "longevity" of the Kishida cabinet depends on whether it can get out of the predicament after the reshuffle and elimination of the "** faction", whether it can gradually recover the support of the people, and whether it can gain balance and support after the political reorganization of the Liberal Democratic Party.
In addition, Japan's political power is not directly elected by the people. As long as Kishida can stabilize these two conditions, the foundation of his regime will not be shaken, despite the temporary downturn in public opinion. One of the two conditions is that the prerogative of the Prime Minister, that is, the prerogative to dissolve the House of Representatives, involves a change of regime;The second is that the prime minister is also the president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which can play a role in balancing the factions within the party.
Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News: How do you **Future Japan** future trend?According to a survey in Japan, Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Taro Kono all have higher support rates than Fumio Kishida, how do you interpret it?
Mao Feng, special observer of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Tokyo: So far, the possibility of the collapse of the Kishida regime is relatively small, because Japan is a prime minister who is coordinated, communicated, and recommended by the five major factions, and the prime minister allocates cabinet members according to the support of each faction.
Although people like Shigeru Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, and Taro Kono have high approval ratings, public opinion polls are only a reference and do not play a decisive role in the overall operation of the government. It can only be at the time of the election that it will have a certain impact on the election of members of the National Assembly and the support of the ruling party. And this effect is also possible at the time of the election.
Author丨Mao Feng, special observer of Shenzhen Satellite TV in Tokyo;Yang Ying, the chief writer of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News.