When judging the general trend, we should deeply explore how the main social forces hidden under the general trend have changed, so as to judge the general trend of the economy and society.
Sino-US economic and trade relations are a torrent in today's world economic relations. The current trend is to get worse and worse, more confrontational, and more contradictory. This trend has been formed since Trump took office, and Sino-US economic and trade relations have been moving along this trend.
However, another trend is also forming, and if a new trend takes shape, a big turning point will take place, and it will formSino-US economic and trade relations have come out of the trough, moving from confrontation to international cooperation, toward normalization of relations, and the restoration of normal order in the world market.
According to the current economic situation, Sino-US economic and trade relations will be reversed from the end of this year to the beginning of next year.
This stems from the spontaneous generation of a reversal force in the United States. When the United States was fighting an economic and trade war with China, the United States had already begun to produce its own economic resistance within its economy. The confrontation between China and the United States is actually the demand of the capital power of the United States to confront China, but capital is actually divided into two levels of capital.
One is the capital as an idea, pursuing the concept of competition;The other is the business capital in operation, which pursues to make profits, that is, to make money. Idea capital can be fought to the end, and it can find ways to restrain the other party;But in order to be able to operate, business capital must be able to have short-term and long-term benefits, and without profits, it cannot survive. Of course, business capital can also be consistent with idea capital, hoping to defeat competitors and then occupy the entire market of the other party.
In the economic and trade blockade of China, the goals of idea capital have come into conflict with those of business capital. On the one hand, in order to defeat China, the idea capital implements the means of embargo, believing that the embargo will make China lack products, unable to produce, and slow or unable to develop;On the other hand, when commercial capital encounters an embargo, commercial capital cannot sell products, thus losing the market, losing profits, and losing profits. Immediately, when the goals of the two capitals diverge, there is a conflict between them.
Should economic activities conform to the concept of capital, or should they comply with the commercial objectives of capital?
Every time the U.S. ban came down, the U.S. capital suffered, and the operating capital was the first to feel the pain;Every time the tax is raised, U.S. importers immediately feel the difficulty, and the cost of U.S. consumption increases.
In the early days of the Sino-US economic and trade war, it should be said that idea capital had the upper hand, and politicians were closest to the idea of capital, because politicians could not care whether capital could make money or not, and making money was the business of entrepreneurs and capitalists. Politicians, after launching political policies, can get business capital to follow the goals of politics in the short termHowever, when commercial capital does not see a way out and has been paying for political goals, commercial capital will no longer be on the same side as ideological capital.
Looking at it now, the political correctness of the industrial society pursued by the United States is no longer correct today. The political correctness that the United States has adhered to since its founding is outdated.
In the confrontation between China and the United States, the most active are politicians and parliamentariansThe least active are entrepreneurs, businessmen. Therefore, entrepreneurs and businessmen are actively seeking to integrate and cooperate with China. In the beginning, entrepreneurs and businessmen still had illusions about the confrontation between China and the United States, believing that if the measures taken by politicians could bring China down, China's market would be completely in their pockets. In the case of such illusions, entrepreneurs and businessmen actively cooperate with the means of politicians. Although they suffered losses, they also cooperated with the policies of politicians. Because, they think that the loss may be temporary, and when they win big victories in the future, they can get it all back.
With the development of economic and trade sanctions and the confrontation between China and the United States, the confrontation between idea capital and commercial capital has gradually taken place. It turned out that political correctness was absolutely dominant, and commercial capital could tolerate it. But now, the enterprise is slowly unable to bear it, and the losses caused by this confrontation, commercial capital can no longer bear it, and is more and more emphasizing its own interests. And it has reached the point where commercial capital cannot survive without reversing the erroneous policy of idea capital. Entrepreneurs, in turn, began to rebel against these practices and policies of politicians.