In the past few days, the continuous appreciation of the RMB has increased the news in the market that the exchange rate will quickly "break 7" or even "break 6".
Remember that some time ago the yuan depreciated to 7Around 2, there were many people who expected to "break 8" by the end of this year, and at that time, as a firm bull, I repeatedly told everyone that there was no such possibility;Time has passed, and I am going to pour cold water on you again when the RMB is extremely fastNot only will the renminbi not be able to break through the six-year-old high, but it will also fail to reach the stage high more than a year ago.
The current round of RMB exchange rate appreciation and depreciation began in May 2020, during which there has been rapid appreciation and strong appreciation**. Echoing with the fluctuation of the exchange rate is the babbling ** field, many people even with the name of economists repeatedly jumped sideways, for a while ** to "8" to go, it didn't take long to see the signs of the wrong to correct the view, indicating that there is a rise above 6The possibility of the 0 mark, the spiritual ** is just like that, right?
In February 2022, the offshore yuan appreciated to 63. It reached a new high in the stage, after which it began to depreciate. Have you noticed that the timing perfectly matches the shift in US monetary policy, and the Fed began to raise interest rates in March last year?
From this, we can draw a conclusion that may not be very proud: the general trend of the RMB exchange rate is actually determined by the US dollar, with the latter appreciating a weak renminbi and the latter depreciating a strong renminbi. Of course, in addition to the renminbi, the currencies of countries and regions such as the euro, the pound, and the yen are also the same, and the hegemony of the dollar is not just used to shout slogans.
In this case, does the renminbi not even have the slightest "autonomy," and the appreciation and depreciation of the renminbi depend entirely on the monetary policy of the United States?
It's not like that, I'm talking about the general trend, and the fluctuations in the short and medium term are strongly correlated with the intentions of China's central bank, foreign exchange bureau and other departments. This is something that most advanced economies can't do because our exchange rate regime is a special one, a "managed floating exchange rate" system.
"Floating" refers to market adjustment, long and short games will make the RMB exchange rate fluctuate up and down, and whoever has the stronger exchange rate will be biased to that side;"Managed" means that when there is a unilateral sharp and rapid appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate, the relevant departments will intervene and use a variety of tools to curb the depreciation or appreciation, so that the RMB exchange rate can remain within an acceptable range.
To put it more bluntly, the exchange rate numbers that we don't want to see are unlikelyWhat you can see is acceptable, and it will not cause China's economy, finance and other fields to suffer seriously due to exchange rate issues.
After understanding this, we will talk about how the RMB exchange rate will change in the next few months, and the thinking will suddenly become clear.
China's economy is still a typical export-oriented economy, with exports of goods ranking first in the world for many years, and this year is no different. Export goods pay attention to two points, one is the first, the other is the quality, our advantages are mainly reflected in the first, in the competition with European and American local enterprises are particularly obvious.
**The relationship between high and low and exchange rate is very large.
For example, a product with a cost of 700 RMB can be sold for 100 US dollars at an exchange rate of 1:7 to protect the principalWhen the exchange rate appreciates to 1:6, you need to sell for 116$7 to protect the capital;The gross profit margin of many domestic manufacturing enterprises is less than 15%, 16The price difference of 7% is enough to completely wipe out the advantage, so that the company is in a dilemma of either not being able to sell too high, or losing money to make money. This is the essential reason why the appreciation of the renminbi does not take advantage of exports.
China's total exports in the first ten months of this year were 279 trillion US dollars, down 56%, the export situation is not optimistic, at this time the RMB will appreciate sharply will make foreign trade worse, this is not the situation we want to see. As mentioned earlier, China implements a "managed floating exchange rate" system, and even if the RMB really appreciates, it will attract the attention of relevant departments, and sacrifice various tools to keep the exchange rate fluctuating within the range that is most favorable to our country.
In addition, the key to the weakening of the dollar is the Fed's interest rate cut. The current Federal** interest rate is 525% to 55%, 0-0 before March last year25%, which shows that the efficiency of this round of U.S. interest rate hikes is very high, and the U.S. GDP in the second quarter is **4 year-on-year9%, and there is no significant recession. Even if the Fed starts cutting interest rates next year, it will not maintain such a fast pace as it did when it raised interest rates, which means that the weakening of the dollar is only relative, and the dollar index will not fall to the bottom all at once.
Therefore, there is no basis for a significant appreciation of the renminbi, whether it is analyzed internally or externally. Temporarily up to 7Within 0 is possible, back to 6 in 2022The probability of 3 is extremely low, let alone "breaking 6".