The heavy snow has passed, and another cold wave has swept through most parts of the country. Not only is the temperature in many places in the north close to the lowest extreme value in the same period in history, but the south will also stage a reversal of cold and warm, and the "peak winter" of energy supply has entered a critical period.
At 6 o'clock on the 14th, the ** Meteorological Observatory issued a yellow warning for the cold wave, saying that due to the influence of the strong cold wave, it is expected that from the 14th to the 17th, most parts of China will cool down from west to east and from north to south8 12.
At present, coal is still the "ballast stone" of energy supply. According to the latest "China Thermal Coal Procurement Index (CECI) Analysis Weekly Report", the 5,500 kcal thermal coal market in Qinhuangdao Port was 937 yuan, 05%, which was basically stable from the previous period. At the same time, benefiting from the recent introduction of mechanisms such as coal-fired power capacity and electricity prices, the business dilemma of "unable to buy coal" and "unable to buy coal" of coal-fired power enterprises has become a thing of the past.
Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told Yicai that unlike the tense situation that some parts of the country once faced in 2021, the country's supply guarantee work has been fully prepared this year. Whether it is the production capacity of coal or the mechanism of coal-electricity linkage, it has solved the major obstacles that may be encountered in ensuring supply at this stage. "It cannot be ruled out that there may be extreme rain and snow in local areas, which will affect the local coal transportation and use. Overall, the national coal power supply situation is guaranteed. ”
Imported coal contributed to the new increase
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, China produced 3900 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38%。From January to October, 38 raw coal was produced300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 31%。
The continuous growth of domestic raw coal production is the result of the steady increase in the production capacity of many coal enterprises. China Huaneng Group announced earlier this month that the company's coal output will exceed 100 million tons in 2023, the highest level in the same period in history. According to the data, China Huaneng has 26 coal mines, with an approved coal production capacity of 118.8 million tons per year, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Shaanxi and other places.
Compared with the slight increase in domestic raw coal, the surge in imported coal is more significant. According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs, in November this year, China imported 4,350 coal60,000 tons, an increase of 34 over the same period last year6%。1 In November, China imported a total of 4300 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 628%。
Why is it that the domestic raw coal capacity has not weakened, but the imported coal has increased by more than 60%?
Zhang Feilong, director of the Yimei Research Institute, told Yicai that the change in the international energy market situation makes imported coal more "cost-effective" is a key factor for enterprises to vote with their feet. He said that before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, there was panic in Europe and other places about natural gas, and there was a rush for coal, which made coal soar. By this year, the pattern of natural gas supply and demand has been basically reshaped, from pipeline natural gas to liquefied natural gas imports, and the demand for coal has decreased, so imported coal has dropped significantly.
This year, 5,500 kcal thermal coal in the European market once fell below 100 US dollars, and some imported coal is even cheaper than the long-term coal we signed. Zhang Feilong believes that the growth of domestic coal consumption this year is expected to be about the same as the growth rate of domestic raw coal production capacity, and if there is no supplement of imported coal, domestic coal supply and demand will remain in a tight balance. However, the decline in overseas coal prices has made the domestic coal supply and demand loose, providing a material basis for ensuring supply in winter.
According to national news, the current national energy is generally stable, coal production is stable and orderly, transportation is strongly guaranteed, and the national power plant has more than 200 million tons of coal storage and can be used for 33 days, which is at the highest level in historyThe preparation of natural gas resources is relatively sufficient, all kinds of gas storage facilities should be stored before winter, natural gas contracts have been fully covered, and the first-class capacity has been steadily improved.
Zhang Feilong said that due to the decrease in temperature and the superposition of the "peak winter" replenishment demand, December in previous years is usually the high point of coal ** and daily consumption, corresponding to the destocking of coal, but this year, the coal storage of power plants is higher, and the destocking is not obvious. Especially after January next year, many factories have entered the stage of shutdown and vacation, and demand has further declined, and there is a downside risk to coal prices in the first quarter.
The first financial reporter noticed that due to the impact of coal ** fluctuations, the requirements for the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2024 have also been partially adjusted. For example, in 2023, power companies will be required to sign contracts with full coverage or even 105%, and in 2024, this proportion will be restored to 80% to 100%, and the restrictions on the increase in coal consumption will be relatively relaxed, and the contract flexibility will increase compared with 2023.
Coal power companies, another major body of supply, also ushered in a blockbuster reform policy at the end of this year. In November, the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to establish a price mechanism for coal-fired power capacity from January 1, 2024.
Generally speaking, under the previously implemented single-electricity tariff mechanism for coal-fired power, coal-fired power units can only generate electricity to make a profit. In recent years, the number of coal-fired power utilization hours has continued to decline, and the multiple increase in the cost of coal has made coal-fired power companies almost entirely dependent on "performance" for their survival complain. However, the new regulations increase the "base salary" corresponding to the fixed investment cost of coal-fired power units of different capacities, making the income structure of coal-fired power enterprises more stable and diverse.
In the past two years, the profitability of coal-fired power assets has been poor, and the Group's investment in new energy has also formed certain constraints. The long-rumored capacity electricity price has finally landed, which has given us a reassurance. In the past, coal power supply was guaranteed even if it lost money, but this year's situation is so good, there is no reason not to do well. A senior executive of a large energy group in the central region told Yicai.
Clean heating is accelerating
Although there is a basic guarantee for coal supply, it is still not enough to promote the dual carbon goal. To this end, the substitution of clean energy has become a key task, which has also brought new challenges to the winter energy supply in many places.
According to the first financial combing, in recent years, the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment have successively issued policy documents such as the "Winter Clean Heating Plan for the Northern Region", clarifying the goals and directions of clean heating from coal to electricity, and repeatedly requiring all localities to adhere to the actual situation, and ensure that the people in the northern region are safe and warm in winter.
In fact, many places have also issued relevant supporting documents and issued clean heating renovation plans. Taking Inner Mongolia as an example, from 2022, Inner Mongolia will set up a special fund for clean heating, and arrange funds of 1 per year600 million yuan to support the implementation of clean heating projects in pilot areas. In 2023, ** and Inner Mongolia will invest a total of 14 in transformation funds2.3 billion yuan, a total of 21 clean heating transformations have been completed in the above four places260,000 households.
On December 11, Liu Bingjiang, chief engineer of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, introduced at the regular briefing on the policy that this year's financial arrangements of 33 billion yuan for air pollution prevention and control, one of the key points is to support clean heating in the northern region in winter, as of the end of last year, 37 million households in rural areas have been completed clean heating transformation, and more than 2 million households will be added this year.
However, the implementation of clean heating in some areas has also exposed some problems. A veteran who has long studied the low-carbon energy transition told Yicai that although many places require clean heating to be completed in a short period of time, and the application of technologies such as electric heating and air source heat pumps is implemented, it is still affected by many factors, and the resistance is still large. For example, the electricity price of electric heating is high, it is difficult to renew the subsidy when it expires, and the efficiency of heat pumps in alpine areas is not high. In general, one is the lack of economy, and the other is that the quality of alternative energy is not high or there is a risk of shortage.
The person suggested that in promoting the clean and low-carbon transformation of heating, it is necessary to adopt appropriate methods for heating according to local conditions, and use different regional resource endowments such as geothermal resources or biomass resources. "There is no one-size-fits-all solution, and the economics and so on depend on the growing value of renewable energy technologies, electricity markets and environmental benefits. ”
Lin Boqiang believes that increasing infrastructure construction is the ultimate way to solve the problem of clean heating substitution, and only by improving energy efficiency and reducing the cost of use through scale effect can it be expected to be recognized in the society, so as to truly achieve large-scale promotion.
Liu Bingjiang said at the above meeting that at present, the focus of China's clean heating work has shifted from the original large-scale increase in the proportion of clean heating to the consolidation of stock and orderly addition. At this stage and in the next step, we will earnestly grasp the continuous operation of clean heating, consolidate the results, improve the long-term mechanism of clean heating, and ensure that the operation is managed, the support policies are continued, the heating safety is guaranteed, and the scattered coal is not burned. The orderly implementation of new clean heating transformation, the areas that are carrying out clean heating in accordance with the established implementation plan in an orderly manner, and the areas that have not carried out the transformation for the time being, adhere to the actual situation, according to local conditions, and steadily implement the new clean heating transformation.