The corn cycle is coming to an end, how much will it rise before the Spring Festival?
c.Situation review and analysis.
So far, there are no more than 100 trucks of corn in the Shandong market, which has made many manufacturers disappear overnight. However, some companies are also starting to pick up slightly. An important factor in the downward adjustment of grain ** is the inconvenience of transportation, but at the same time, it has also caused China's grain market to enter a "cooling-off period". However, at present, the first corn in Northeast China is still declining, the psychology of grain holders has collapsed, and the overall enthusiasm for selling grain is still high. For a period of time to come, the grain market in northeastern China will continue to fall under pressure. However, we cannot ignore the impact of the policy, although it is unlikely to have a significant rebound in the near future, but on the basis of the previous stage, the bottom effect on corn still exists.
The amount of demand for corn.
According to recent news reports, some feed companies in the south have already started to make acquisitions, and their acquisitions** are higher than the current intensive processing. Among them, led by the two major feed companies, they did this for two reasons: first, the pork ** in North China and Shandong has fallen to the "bottom", and it is very likely that there will be a second **, but the probability of continuing to fall is very low;Second, the demand of the downstream market has gradually warmed up, and many small and medium-sized feed enterprises have a certain tendency to hoard goods due to their own insufficient grain storage. Despite the decline in demand for pigs, the rest of the livestock sector has broadly warmed up.
The merchant buys at a low price.
Nowadays, there are some large and medium-sized merchants who are snapping up low prices, the most typical example is the drying tower. Despite the modest profitability, the profitability of the medium- and long-term operations is quite good. In addition, major enterprises and major granaries have placed large orders, and the demand for grain is also very good.
The role of meteorological factors on cereal prices.
From this week onwards, the temperature in North China, Shandong, Northeast China and other places will drop significantly, which will have a positive effect on the security of grain reserves. If the road surface sliding effect caused by snowfall is taken into account, the corn market in Shandong will continue in the following days**, and it is likely to be in 13 yuan hovering around kilograms. After the heavy snowfall, the main thing is to see if the grain holders will ship in large quantities. It is expected to usher in a new wave of volume.
Grains are trending in the near future.
In the near term, corn is likely to be weak. Unless there is a fundamental change in the ideological concepts of the broad masses of peasants and businessmen, major changes will not take place. However, due to the implementation of the first-class control measures and the stocking of various enterprises during the holidays, downstream consumption has gradually warmed up, and phased price increases are inevitable. However, in the near term, corn will still lie at the "bottom" for a short time. The beginning of the year is the best time to operate, but there is a possibility that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the corn will become a "bottom". After the New Year, there will be new changes in the market. A competent boss may wait before making a decision.
Looking forward to the wheat market. At present, wheat is generally stable, although there are occasional fluctuations, but there is no major change overall. At present, due to the impact of heavy snow and food prices, the current market trading is relatively light. ** and the impasse over demand continues. Although most companies have abundant inventory, it is necessary for enterprises to maintain inventory at a high level of security. In addition, with the gradual recovery of downstream consumption, the stocking stage of the Spring Festival has also come to an end. I think that in the near future, there will be a round of overall rise in wheat. In terms of increase, according to the current **, there should not be much increase, but at least it must return to 15 yuan a pound. As enterprises actively purchase high-quality old wheat, therefore, during the Spring Festival this year, the wheat is expected to continue, basically remaining at 1About 55 yuan per kilogram. This week will focus on weather conditions, market volume and corporate purchases. However, it is not ruled out that the price reduction will continue after the weather clears.
The conclusion is that from the above factors, in the future, the corn futures price may continue to be weak, but in the context of policy promotion, enterprise holiday stocking and downstream consumption recovery, phased price increases are inevitable. However, on the eve of the Spring Festival, there is a high probability that the ** of corn will start to rise from the bottom, and it is possible to start a new round of ** after the Spring Festival. As for the market, it is necessary to pay close attention to weather changes, market supply and demand, and the purchase status of enterprises, which is expected to rise by a large margin. It is important to note that the above content is purely personal and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment has certain risks, please choose carefully.