Since the beginning of this year, we have accurately implemented macroeconomic regulation and control, made good use of policy space, found the right direction, played a policy "combination punch", and solidly promoted the implementation of macro policies at the micro level, effectively stabilized growth, improved confidence, and prevented risks, so as to promote China's economy to continue to rebound and improve in consolidating the foundation and cultivating the yuan. What is the effect of macroeconomic control?How to further exert the effect of the policy?Experts are invited to discuss related issues.
Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian: prudent monetary policy is more forward-looking.
Since the beginning of this year, the monetary policy has increased counter-cyclical adjustment, the total amount of money and credit has maintained rapid growth, the credit structure has been continuously optimized, and the interest rate on corporate loans has been at a low level, providing strong and effective support for economic recovery. At the same time, a series of important measures have been introduced, such as reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, adjusting and optimizing real estate financial policies.
In general, the monetary policy has been adjusted vigorously, introduced quickly, and focused on coordinated efforts, which has effectively reduced the burden on enterprises and residents, and enhanced the willingness and ability of various business entities to expand consumption and investment. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, said that in terms of total volume, the balance of RMB loans reached 235 trillion yuan at the end of September, and the stock of broad money (m2) and social financing scale increased by 10 percent year-on-year3% and 90%；From January to September, new RMB loans were 1975 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-year58 trillion yuan. From the point of view, the weighted average interest rate of new corporate loans and personal housing loans issued in September was .02%, 018, 032 percentage points;The adjustment of the interest rate of the existing housing loan has been basically completed, and the average interest rate has decreased by 073 percentage points. From a structural point of view, the balance of inclusive small and micro loans and medium and long-term loans for the manufacturing industry increased by 24 year-on-year respectively at the end of September1% and 382%, scientific and technological innovation, small and micro enterprises, green development and other key areas and weak links have been accurately drip irrigated.
At present, China's economy has maintained a positive momentum of recovery, the growth momentum has been continuously enhanced, and the transformation and upgrading have continued to advance, while at the same time, it is also facing challenges such as uneven recovery of the world economy and an unstable foundation for the stable recovery of the domestic economy. "Although there are more signs of accelerated recovery of the domestic economy, and a number of economic indicators have rebounded, the recovery momentum is not very stable. In particular, the confidence and expectations of business entities are still recovering, and demand needs to be further boosted. Dong Ximiao said that in the next step, we should focus on the stability of corporate loan growth and the sustainability of resident loan growth, fully implement the "combination punch" of the previous policy, and continue to take more resolute and effective measures to better stabilize expectations, boost confidence, and continue to stimulate effective demand.
Specifically, Dong Ximiao believes that monetary policy should be implemented while maintaining a steady tone, and be more forward-looking, effective and accurate. First, it is necessary to increase cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments, carry out pre-adjustment and fine-tuning in a forward-looking manner, and help the macroeconomy iron out cyclical fluctuations and external shocksSecond, it is necessary to ensure that liquidity is more abundant in the aggregate, reduce costs moderately, and strengthen coordination with fiscal policies, so as to give full play to the policy integration effectThird, it is necessary to make good use of the existing structural monetary policy tools, create new tools when necessary, and guide and support financial institutions to do a good job in the "five major articles".
The People's Bank of China recently released the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the Third Quarter of 2023", which proposes to adhere to the fundamental purpose of providing financial services to the real economy, build a modern first-class banking system, always maintain the soundness of monetary policy, strengthen high-quality financial services, better support the expansion of domestic demand, promote the stabilization of foreign investment and foreign trade, and provide high-quality services for economic and social development. At the same time, it is emphasized that the prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful, pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, enrich the monetary policy toolbox, and strive to create a good monetary and financial environment.
The report clearly adheres to the prudent monetary policy orientation, which is consistent with the spirit of the first financial work conference. Dong Ximiao's analysis, accurate, mainly from a structural point of view, will make good use of the structure to increase the precise drip irrigation of key areas and weak links;Powerful, mainly from the perspective of aggregate, will appropriately use the aggregate tool to increase support services for the real economy. This shows that in the next step, the central bank will comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools, both quantity and price, long and short, more accurate and effective implementation of a sound monetary policy, continue to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, further stabilize the confidence and expectations of business entities, and guide financial institutions to increase support services for various business entities, especially scientific and technological innovation, private small and micro enterprises, with greater efforts to support the continuous improvement of economic operation, help complete the expected goals for the whole year, and lay the foundation for the economy to achieve a good start in 2024.
Dong Ximiao said that while strengthening confidence, we should take precautions, thoroughly analyze the impact of unfavorable factors, and make comprehensive policy arrangements. At present, there are still many tools in China's monetary policy toolbox, and the fourth quarter and the beginning of next year are the key periods for the end and the beginning of the year, and the possibility and necessity of further adjustment and optimization of monetary policy exist. Recently, the issuance of ** bonds such as special treasury bonds has accelerated, which has had a certain impact on market liquidity. In the next step, on the one hand, we can consider increasing the intensity of open market operations, and on the other hand, we can consider implementing comprehensive or targeted RRR cuts in a timely manner to release long-term liquidity to the market and reduce the cost of funds for banks. At the same time, we will continue to push the policy rate downward, guide banks to moderately reduce deposit interest rates, reduce bank debt costs, and push down the loan market ** interest rate (LPR).
In addition, there is still room for further adjustment and optimization of some stock policies. Dong Ximiao believes that more small and medium-sized banks should be included in the scope of implementation of carbon emission reduction support tools and special re-lending to support the clean and efficient use of coal, and support small and medium-sized banks to use low-cost funds to do a good job in green finance. In terms of housing credit policy, we should continue to adjust and optimize the loan restriction policy, guide the reduction of the interest rate of the existing second home loan, reduce the burden of residents' housing consumption, and boost residents' willingness to consume housing. (Economic ** reporter Yao Jin).
Li Changan, professor of the School of Management, University of International Economics: Stimulate the vitality of the private economy and stabilize employment.
To stabilize employment, we must stabilize the main body of business. The private economy absorbs more than 80 percent of China's urban labor employment and is the main front for solving the employment problem. Li Chang'an, a special researcher at the Beijing Research Center for Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era and a professor at the School of Management of the University of International Business and Economics, said: "It is inevitable to continuously stimulate the vitality of the private economy and take a variety of measures to enhance the ability of the private economy to absorb employment. ”
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's private economy has achieved remarkable results in the development of its private economy, which plays an important role in stimulating employment and improving the quality of employment. According to statistics, from 2012 to 2022, the number of private enterprises accounted for 794% grew to 933%, and the tax contribution rate of the private economy jumped to about 60%. The private economy is also an important force in China's scientific and technological innovation, producing more than seventy percent of scientific and technological achievements. Li Changan said: "90% of the new jobs are in private enterprises. With the improvement of the quality of economic development and the improvement of labor laws and regulations, the employment quality of workers in the private economy has gradually improved. ”
Recently, the difficulties and problems encountered in the development of China's private economy have increased, and the ability to absorb employment has been inhibited to a certain extent. Li Changan said that since the beginning of this year, the state has introduced a series of policies and measures to encourage and support the development of the private economy, create a stable and sustainable fair competition environment for the development of the private economy, and achieve the purpose of stabilizing employment while stabilizing the main body of business. In July 2023, the "Opinions of the Communist Party of China on Promoting the Development and Growth of the Private Economy" was released, proposing 31 specific measures from the aspects of the development environment, policy support, legal protection, and promoting the healthy growth of private entrepreneurs. The state, together with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance and other 8 ministries and commissions, jointly issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Several Recent Measures to Promote the Development of the Private Economy", which put forward 28 specific measures in five aspects: focusing on promoting fair access, strengthening factor support, strengthening legal guarantees, optimizing enterprise-related services, and creating a good atmosphere. In November, the People's Bank of China, together with the State Administration of Financial Supervision and other eight departments, jointly issued the "Notice on Strengthening Financial Support Measures to Help the Development and Growth of the Private Economy", proposing 25 financial measures to support the private economy. In addition, various regions and departments have also introduced specific measures to encourage and support the private economy. "With the help of these policy 'combination punches', the development environment of the private economy has been significantly improved, various burdens have been continuously reduced, the problem of difficult financing and expensive financing has been alleviated, and the vitality has been further enhanced. Li Changan said.
In the first three quarters of this year, the import and export of private enterprises increased by 61%, accounting for 53 percent of total imports and exports1%, the decline in private fixed asset investment narrowed. Not so long ago, the National Bureau of Statistics faced 5According to the survey carried out by 90,000 small and micro enterprises, the production orders and operating conditions of enterprises have generally improved, and the prosperity index has increased by 1 month-on-month5 percentage points. The steady development of the private economy has provided an opportunity to alleviate the employment problem. In October this year, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas nationwide was 5%, down 05 percentage points. From January to October, the average surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas across the country was 53%, 03 percentage points. The continuous improvement of economic operation and the increase in the activity of the private economy have also laid the foundation for the improvement of youth employment.
Li Changan suggested that at present, the foundation for China's economy to stabilize and rebound is still not solid, and some institutional and institutional problems restricting the development of the private economy have not yet been fundamentally resolved. Therefore, we must adhere to the basic principles of "two unswerving", resolutely prevent policy repetition and conceptual bias, and incorporate supporting and encouraging the development of the private economy into the strategy of high-quality development and the realization of Chinese-style modernization. With efforts to create a fair competition market environment as the starting point, we will increase the support of macro policies, earnestly implement various measures such as tax and fee reductions, and solve the difficulties, blockages and pain points in the process of private economic development as soon as possible. We will further tap the potential of the private economy in absorbing employment, effectively implement supportive policies such as job stabilization subsidies and training subsidies, and continuously consolidate the key position of the private economy in achieving high-quality and full employment. (Economic ** reporter Ao Rong).
Li Xuhong, vice president and professor of Beijing National Accounting Institute: active fiscal policy to improve efficiency.
Since the beginning of this year, as an important means of macroeconomic regulation and control, the proactive fiscal policy has continued to improve efficiency, and strive to promote the overall recovery of the economy and promote high-quality development. "Looking at the overall development situation this year, the active fiscal policy has been effectively implemented, and the efficiency has been fully released. Li Xuhong, vice president and professor of Beijing National Accounting Institute, said.
Tax and fee reduction is an important measure to stabilize enterprises and protect employment and support the development of business entities. According to the latest statistics of the State Administration of Taxation, from January to October, 1,660.7 billion yuan of new tax and fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals were added across the country, and the manufacturing industry and related wholesale and retail industries benefited the most.
With the implementation of a series of preferential tax policies, business confidence has gradually recovered, and business entities have become more vigorous. The release of policy dividends has directly reduced corporate costs and stabilized market expectations in the short termIn the long run, it has further stimulated the endogenous driving force of enterprise development and laid a solid micro foundation for high-quality development. Li Xuhong said.
In the context of the slowdown in the global economic recovery, expanding domestic demand has become the key to driving economic growth. Li Xuhong analyzed that in terms of stabilizing investment, from January to October this year, the country issued 3,678.2 billion yuan of new special bonds, which played an important role in driving and expanding effective investmentIn terms of promoting consumption, the optimization of the vehicle purchase tax reduction and exemption policy for new energy vehicles and the improvement of the special additional deduction standard for individual income tax have further stimulated the potential of social consumption and injected new impetus into China's economic stability.
At the same time, the proactive fiscal policy has strongly promoted the acceleration of the accumulation of innovation momentum. "On the one hand, the increase in financial investment in science and technology provides financial support for the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy. On the other hand, a series of preferential tax policies to support scientific and technological innovation have been continuously improved, which has fully guided the concentration of innovation resources to enterprises while encouraging enterprises to increase R&D investment, and contributed to the promotion of industrial upgrading and transformation and the cultivation and development of new kinetic energy. Li Xuhong said.
In addition, with the continuous optimization of the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure, the efficiency of fiscal expenditure has been continuously improved, key expenditures have been strongly guaranteed, and the basic bottom line of people's livelihood has been strengthened.
In the next step, to maintain the positive trend of economic operation and accelerate the recovery of the economy, the active fiscal policy should continue to increase efficiency. Li Xuhong said.
First, we need to give full play to the positive effects of debt management. "Increase investment in key areas of debt, and concentrate on increasing investment in key areas such as infrastructure construction and scientific and technological innovation to support the effective implementation of the national development strategy. At the same time, it is necessary to scientifically manage the scale and structure of debts, pay attention to project selection and benefit evaluation, ensure that funds are used for projects with potential, promote the rational allocation of limited funds, and ensure the safety of debt repayment. Li Xuhong said.
Second, continue to implement various tax support policies. Li Xuhong suggested that, on the one hand, the implementation of R & D expenses plus deduction policy, high-tech enterprise income tax incentives, advanced manufacturing enterprises plus deduction and other preferential tax policies, through the further release of policy dividends, reduce enterprise costs, encourage enterprises to increase scientific and technological innovation and expand reproduction;On the other hand, we will continue to focus on key support targets such as small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, modern manufacturing and modern service industries, and deploy and implement preferential tax and fee measures involving enterprise income tax, value-added tax, unemployment and work-related injury insurance premiums, urban land use tax, etc., and promote the sustained economic recovery through systematic efforts and precise policies.
Thirdly, budget management is further optimized. "Standardize the fiscal and tax management mechanism, do a good job in the management of non-tax revenues such as budget revenues, reduce dependence on land finance, maintain the positive interaction between economic development and tax growth, maintain the trend of a high proportion of tax revenues in fiscal revenues, and improve the 'gold content' of fiscal revenues. Li Xuhong believes that at the same time, open up the whole process of budget and performance management integration chain, scientifically optimize the performance evaluation mechanism of budget management, promote the integration of pre-performance evaluation into budget preparation, in-process performance monitoring into budget implementation, post-performance evaluation into the application of budget results, and strengthen the management of budget performance objectives.
In addition, establish and improve a long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local hidden debt risks, steadily resolve the stock of hidden debts, and curb the increase of hidden debts. Standardize the management of the issuance and use of special bonds, and ensure the standardization and safety of the use of funds through penetrating monitoring and full life cycle management. Strengthen the monitoring of local financial operations, dynamically track and judge the situation of local financial operations, detect and deal with possible debt risks as early as possible, and make every effort to ensure the sustainable development and coordination of finance and economy and society. Li Xuhong said. (Economic ** reporter Zeng Jinhua).
Wei Qijia, Director of the Industrial Economy Research Office of the Economic Department of the State Information Center: Optimize policies and improve the industrial system.
Since the second half of this year, a series of policies and measures to stabilize growth have been introduced, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual development goals. Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economy Research Office of the Economic Department of the State Information Center, analyzed that in terms of promoting consumption, the "Measures on Recovering and Expanding Consumption" and "Several Measures on Releasing the Potential of Tourism Consumption to Promote the High-quality Development of Tourism" have been released one after another, aiming to release consumption potential and promote residents' consumptionIn terms of stabilizing investment, on July 14, the state issued the "Notice on Further Promoting Private Investment and Striving to Mobilize the Enthusiasm of Private Investment", proposing 17 measures to promote private investmentIn terms of stabilizing foreign trade and foreign investment, on August 13, the "Opinions on Further Optimizing the Foreign Investment Environment and Increasing the Attraction of Foreign Investment" was promulgated, proposing to increase the attraction of foreign investment.
On the whole, the policy has achieved good results, market demand has gradually recovered, production and supply have continued to increase, prices and employment have been generally stable, and high-quality development has been steadily promoted. Wei Qijia said that from the perspective of market demand, the role of consumption in driving the economy has gradually increased. In the first three quarters, the contribution of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 832%, driving GDP growth by 44 percentage points. The consumer market maintained a good recovery momentum, the growth of retail sales of goods accelerated, and the consumption of services continued to grow rapidly. In October, retail sales of goods increased by 6 percent year-on-year5%, 19 percentage points, from January to October, the retail sales of services increased by 19% year-on-year, of which, during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the number of domestic tourists traveled was 8300 million person-times, the average daily tourism revenue and average daily tourist arrivals increased respectively over the same period last year3%。
From the perspective of production and supply, the role of investment in driving growth continues to emerge. The scale of investment in fixed assets continued to expand, and investment in high-tech industries grew rapidly. In the first 10 months, the national investment in fixed assets increased by 2 percent year-on-year9%, of which, manufacturing investment increased by 6% year-on-year2%, especially investment in high-tech manufacturing increased by 113%, maintaining double-digit growth for 37 consecutive months. Industrial production grew steadily, and revenue and profits continued to recover to a positive trend. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4 percent year-on-year6%, the growth rate accelerated by 0 from the previous month1 percentage point, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2 percent year-on-year5%, rebounding for 4 consecutive months, and the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2% year-on-year7%, maintaining positive growth for 3 consecutive months.
From the perspective of prices and employment, prices and employment remained stable on the whole. Household consumption and industrial producers were generally stable. In October, the national household consumption** fell by 02%, down 01%, industrial producers** year-on-year decrease of 26%, flat month-on-month. The employment situation is generally stable. In October, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas across the country was 5%, unchanged from the previous month and down 05 percentage points.
From the perspective of innovation momentum, the rapid growth of the "three new" economy has gradually emerged as a leading role in the sustained recovery of the economy. From the perspective of new industries, the development of high-tech and intelligent manufacturing is improving. In October, the added value of aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing above designated size increased by 12 percent year-on-year3%, the added value of intelligent vehicle equipment manufacturing and intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 89 respectively2% and 532%。From the perspective of new products, new energy and new material products are growing rapidly. In October, the output of new energy vehicles increased by 27% year-on-year9%, solar cells grew by 628%。From the perspective of new business formats, online retail sales continued to be active, and from January to October, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 8 percent year-on-year4%。
In the next step, the optimization of industrial policies should be made from the transformation of traditional industries and the expansion of strategic emerging industries, which is not only the due meaning of improving the modernization level of the industrial chain, but also the inevitable requirement of accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system. Wei Qijia said.
It is necessary to speed up the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. The rejuvenation of traditional industries is not a process of starting from scratch, but an optimization and upgrading on the basis of the original good foundation. From a technical point of view, it is to integrate technological transformation into an important link of production, and improve the input-output situation with technological progress. From the perspective of production and operation management, it is to form more advanced production processes and processes to improve the stability and reliability of product quality. The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries focuses on the macro goal of building a modern industrial system, but the key content involved is one after another micro and specific content, how to empower the whole process of production through parameter optimization, and how to balance the relationship between the stable growth of technological transformation investment and the sustainable cash flow, these are important questions that need to be answered by business entities and policies in the process of transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
It is necessary to promote the expansion and quality of strategic emerging industries. The policy orientation to support the development of strategic emerging industries should be able to effectively coordinate the "can't wait" and "can't wait". "Can't wait" is to see the direction and path, optimize the implementation of industrial policies, and increase support in accordance with the principles of marketization and rule of law. "In a hurry" is to prevent duplicate construction, resolutely avoid "rushing to the top", and guide the local government to formulate relevant plans based on the actual development of local industries, so as to form a differentiated and characteristic strategic emerging industry development trend. (Economic ** reporter Li Pengda).