How far is the new energy of trunk logistics heavy trucks from the acceleration inflection point?
In 2022, the market penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles will exceed 10%, and the penetration rate of heavy-duty trucks will be close to 5%. In 2023, the new energy subsidy policy will be withdrawn, but the data from January to October will be basically the same as last year. It can be said that the momentum of new energy for commercial vehicles will be consolidated in 2023, but it is still far lower than that of new energy passenger vehicles4% market share.
A few days ago, the high-end seminar of "Transportation Structure Adjustment and New Energy of Trunk Logistics" of China Electric Vehicle 100 was held in Hubei. Shi Jianhua, vice president of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that the new energy of the commercial vehicle industry, especially the new energy of trunk logistics heavy trucks, is the focus and difficulty of "transportation carbon reduction". Its new energy process must be in line with the general direction of the country's transportation structure adjustment and closely meet the needs of the trunk logistics industry.
To this end, representatives from industry organizations, research institutions, local ** relevant units and many enterprises related to the industrial chain discussed the topic. Please see the report on Fangde.com.
The acceleration period is approaching
The permeability rate increased by more than 10%.
At present, the penetration rate of new energy in trunk logistics scenarios is less than 1%. It is expected that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy will increase significantly. He Xingdong, deputy director of the Consulting Center of the Comprehensive Transportation Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in a speech at the meeting of 100 people.
With the acceleration of China's transportation structure adjustment, it is expected that by 2025, the national railway and water freight volume will increase by 10% and 12% compared with 2020, and the road freight volume will decline relatively. In this context, large-scale, ultra-long-distance road transportation will gradually withdraw from the market, and the advantages of first-class, point-to-point highway trunk transportation with a radius of 500 kilometers and about 300 kilometers will be further highlighted.
In He Xingdong's view, the new energy freight mode of "throwing and hanging + battery swapping" can not only effectively alleviate battery life anxiety, but also match subdivided application scenarios, and will become a key route for future product development and market promotion.
Yang Guohua, deputy general manager of Long-distance New Energy Commercial Vehicle Group Heavy Truck Marketing Company, further judged that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks will reach more than 10%;The capacity of the new energy heavy truck market in the trunk logistics market is expected to exceed 10,000 units per year.
Yang Guohua said that the advantages of poor oil and electricity economy and the improvement of energy replenishment facilities are the main factors to promote the new energy of trunk logistics. It is found that when the economic difference between oil and electricity reaches more than 20% and the battery life of a single vehicle exceeds 300 kilometers, the advantages of new energy heavy trucks are more prominent.
In terms of energy replenishment facilities, Yang Guohua**, the number of battery swap stations serving heavy trucks in the country does not exceed 400, which are distributed in a dotted mannerIt is expected that more than 1,000 will be built in 2025, some of which will be gradually developed on a point-like basis, covering some trunk line scenarios, and promoting the improvement of the new energy penetration rate of trunk logistics heavy trucks.
Overcharging or battery swapping?
Technical difficulties have yet to be overcome
In the process of promotion and application, the energy supplement method has become one of the key factors affecting the new energy of heavy trucks. At the meeting of 100 people, it attracted a lot of discussions.
Zhao Minyu, general manager of strategy and product planning of Deepway, said that the speed of supercharging is fast, but it is relatively limited by the development of battery technology such as capacitors. At present, the large power battery occupies a larger load, which cannot well meet the economy pursued by trunk logistics.
Wang Yi, general manager of Sany Heavy Truck Electrification Company, judged that in the short term, the solution of pure electrification of new energy heavy trucks is expected to make a great breakthrough. In 2023, the industry is pushing 500-600kWh high-power charging electric vehicles, and the target market will transform from short-distance logistics to medium and long-distance transportation. The technological progress of sodium-ion batteries and high-voltage platforms will effectively solve the problem of insufficient charging efficiency of existing lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Wei Hui, deputy director of the product center of Guoxuan High-tech Engineering Research Institute, said frankly that at present, the general transportation distance of trunk logistics heavy trucks is within 300-1000 kilometers. Different transportation distances and different "back-charge" methods can fully reflect the benefits of new energy heavy trucks, which requires battery companies and OEMs to deal with together.
At present, the more mainstream battery-swapping heavy trucks in the industry also have technical barriers that need to be solved urgently.
Dong Chaowen, deputy chief engineer of Dayun Automobile Technology, pointed out that first of all, many standards for battery replacement, including battery size, specifications, ports, etc., have not reached complete uniformitySecondly, the existing energy charging station sites are limited, and it is difficult to meet the supply and demand relationship in the future. In addition, the driving force for individual purchase of new energy heavy trucks is insufficient, and the issue of ownership should be paid attention to.
Peng Huacheng, director of the market research department of JAC Heavy Commercial Vehicle Company, believes that battery swapping, as the current transition stage, needs the corresponding standardization guidance from the state to accelerate the development process. Charging is the main technical direction in the future.
Industrial chain synergy
Promote the development of the industry together
In addition to paying attention to energy consumption costs, promoting the new energy of trunk logistics from the perspective of industrial chain synergy, reducing costs and increasing efficiency has become another realistic path to promote the development of the industry.
Han Xuefeng, director of the China Logistics Society and special expert of the China Federation of Things Highway Branch, believes that in the future, trunk logistics should become the core action in the whole scene of the first chain, and it is a "collaborative chain" that runs through the upstream and downstream of the logistics industry. In the future, trunk logistics will definitely show the characteristics of green, intelligent and collaborative.
Lu Jianxing, head of G7 Green Port Solutions, said that through organized operation, the optimization of transportation routes, vehicle scheduling, driver driving behavior and other efficiency can also improve the gross profit margin of single vehicles and promote the new energy transformation of trunk logistics.
Peng Huacheng, Director of the Market Research Department of JAC Heavy Commercial Vehicle Company, pointed out that through the combination of intelligent networking and operation and maintenance system, the resource sharing of plants and stations, the optimization of the distribution system can be realized, and the in-depth collaboration of vehicle-station-cloud-road can be realized.
In the view of Hu Siyuan, an expert from the commodity planning department of Dongfeng Liuzhou Automobile, improving timeliness through intelligent networking can further enhance the operational value of customers. In the future, the most ideal may be to operate in unmanned scenarios and give full play to the greatest advantages of electric heavy trucks.
In addition to cooperating with the industrial chain to jointly improve the development process, many participating enterprises called for support and guidance from the policy level.
First of all, the user value of pure electric vehicles in trunk line operation can be enhanced through standard revision and optimization, and new energy vehicles can be exempted from the total amount. In addition, we will guide the development of fast charging and supercharging technologies and the improvement of supporting facilities, strengthen the improvement of fast charging and supercharging infrastructure, and continue to improve the efficiency of user energy replenishment. Zhang Wenfeng, chief engineer of Dongfeng commercial vehicle market strategic planning, suggested at the summit.
From the current point of view, whether it is the relaxation of new energy heavy truck regulations, or the promotion and construction of supporting facilities such as energy supplement, including the development and growth of the new energy core independent industrial chain, it is inseparable from the help of the policy level. Fan Xiaoyan, director of Yutong Heavy Truck Market and Product Planning Department, emphasized at the 100-person meeting.