Approaching New Year's Day, corn and soybean meal ushered in an inflection point, what happened to the counterattack of grain prices?
Around New Year's Day, the domestic grain market has recently appeared the best performance, corn, soybeans and soybeans The domestic soybean market is under pressure, and the soybean meal point is also showing a trend of low attraction, however, the soybean meal has not yet fallen below 3800 yuan tons, and it has rebounded recently. In the corn market, corn after more than a month of **, the Northeast region of the weak and stable situation gradually formed, although, the North China market is slightly weaker, but, in the short-term and long-term game, corn, soybean meal ** suddenly ushered in"Inflection point"The market may have the expectation of a turnaround, so what is happening in the market?
In the soybean meal market, recently, the external disk of CBOT soybean performance is more tenacious, the consolidation price is about 1300 bushels, the highest domestic meal with the price limit, **3933 yuan ton, and in terms of oil mills, soybean meal spot ** stable and strong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Guangdong coastal areas of oil mills ** up to 3900 3970 yuan ton, **20 30 yuan ton!So there is.
According to institutional analysis, at present, the Brazilian soybean production in the foreign market will either be lowered, and the market speculation on the South American weather is high, and the soybean yield in Brazil will be reduced to 57 per hectare compared with last year87 bags (60 kg bags), either will be reduced by 71%, the domestic market from February to March next year to Hong Kong imported soybeans will either be significantly reduced, which has a strong support for the long-term soybean meal market!
From the national level, due to the poor sales of soybean meal recently, oil mills have accumulated too much pressure, some oil mills have been suspended, superimposed expansion, and some areas in the north have seen a certain reduction in production due to environmental protection requirements, and the soybean crushing level has been lowered, which has also led to a certain panic mentality in the market!
According to market information, as the New Year's Day holiday approaches, the operating rate of oil mill facilities will decline, the level of soybean meal will weaken, the downstream demand will be sluggish, the mentality of stocking on dips has been enhanced, the spot transaction of soybean meal has gradually heated up, and the order turnover of oil mill facilities has gradually increased, which will also make the soybean meal spot stronger!
But from a rational point of view, the domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory level is higher, inventory consumption is relatively slow, although the operating rate of oil mills has been lowered, but the first level is still sufficient, superimposed, downstream aquaculture market growth rate is generally slowed down, pig price peak season performance is more obvious, the breeding end of the production capacity is concentrated, the feed demand is relatively general, the hoarding mentality is weak, which will limit the company's inventory!It is expected that the performance of soybean meal may be limited, after all, the scale of imported soybeans to Hong Kong in January is still sufficient!
In terms of the corn market, from the perspective of market feedback, the current Northeast corn has stabilized, moving closer to the low level, but in the North China market, the temperature has risen in the past two days, the pressure on corn storage has increased, the farmers' grain sales mentality has become stronger, the matrix corn has increased significantly, the enterprise is slightly weaker, and the listing of deep processing enterprises in Shandong has dropped to 122～1.29 yuan or so, and the grain price of some substrate grains fell below 1 in the peak season2 yuan catty!
However, due to the stabilization of the decline of corn in Northeast China, the lack of sustained corn in North China, after all, the sentiment of grain farmers to threshing and selling grain is gradually weakening, and the grain source transferred from the Northeast will also be reduced, and the local corn circulation will gradually shrink, and the pressure will gradually decrease!
On the demand side, due to the grain storage in the Northeast region or will concentrate on the rotation of 4.5 million tons of corn, superimposed domestic corn ** is at a low level, the downstream market ** mentality is getting stronger, and some grain merchants have a low-price accumulation mentality!Although, conventional feed and deep processing enterprises into the market to build a position is more cautious, but in January, as the Spring Festival date approaches, corn purchase and sales demand will also rebound significantly, therefore, at this stage, the domestic corn market is at the bottom of the cycle, **subject to the change in the rhythm of purchase and sales or will show a trend of adjustment, however, the trend is gradually stronger!
To sum up, based on the long and short game of the market, approaching New Year's Day, the downstream soybean meal market demand has been cashed in, and the grain rotation in the corn market has increased, which will also drive the enthusiasm of channels and enterprises to build a warehouse"Inflection point", **or ** strong trend, however, due to high soybean meal inventories!However, due to the high soybean meal inventory and the surplus of basis corn, it is expected that it will be difficult to turn around the market headwind, and the upside may be limited
Approaching New Year's Day, corn and soybean meal suddenly touched"Tipping point", what exactly happened?Will cereals** change direction?What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, ** on the Internet, the content is for reference only!