Approaching New Year's Day, in the domestic grain market, recently, corn and soybeans have performed sluggishly, domestic soybeans have been under pressure, and soybean meal spot has also shown a low-level pulling trend, however, soybean meal has not yet fallen below 3800 yuan tons, and has been in recent days. In the corn market, corn fell for more than a month, the Northeast region of the weak and stable situation gradually formed, although, the North China market is slightly weak, but, under the long and short game, corn, soybean meal ** suddenly meet the "inflection point", the market or there is an expectation of a headwind, so, what happened to the market?
In the soybean meal market,Recently, the external disk of CBOT soybean performance is more tenacious, **consolidation at about 1300 cents bushels, domestic continuous meal ** with the plate higher, ** up 3933 yuan ton, and in terms of oil mills, soybean meal spot ** stable and strong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Guangdong coastal oil mills ** rose to 3900 3970 yuan ton, ** up 20 30 yuan ton!
According to the analysis of the institution, at present, in terms of external disk, Brazil's soybean production may be lowered, and the market's sentiment for South American weather speculation is higher, and the soybean yield of some institutions in Brazil may fall to 57 per hectare87 bags (60 kg bags), a decrease of 7 compared to last year1%, the arrival of imported soybeans in February and March next year may be significantly reduced, which has strong support for the long-term soybean meal market!
In the domestic aspect, recently, by the soybean meal trading is not smooth, the pressure of oil mills is too large, some oil mills have been suspended, superimposed, some areas in the north have been affected by environmental protection requirements to a certain amount of production phenomenon, soybean crushing level has been lowered, which has also driven the market to panic mentality!
Judging from the market feedback, as the New Year's Day holiday approaches, the operating rate of oil mills may fall, the level of soybean meal may weaken, and the downstream demand, the mentality of replenishing the warehouse at low prices has increased, and the spot transaction of soybean meal has gradually heated up, and the orders of oil mills have increased, and the transaction has gradually increased, which will also drive the strong operation of spot soybean meal!
However, from a rational point of view, the domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory level is higher, inventory consumption is relatively slow, although, the oil mill has lowered the operating rate, but the level is still sufficient, superimposed, the downstream market breeding industry is generally sluggish, the performance of the pig peak season is not more obvious, the breeding end has entered the stage of concentration of production capacity, feed demand is relatively general, and the hoarding mentality is weak, which will also limit the performance of enterprise stocking, it is expected that soybean meal ** Space may be limited, after all, the scale of imported soybeans into Hong Kong in January is still sufficient!
And in the corn market,Judging from the market feedback, at present, the Northeast corn is stable, mainly at a low level, but in the North China market, by the temperature rise in the last two days, the pressure on corn storage has increased, the farmers' mentality of selling grain has become stronger, the corn grassroots ** increase is obvious, the enterprise ** is slightly weak, and the deep processing enterprises in Shandong have fallen to 122~1.About 29 yuan catty, some grassroots grain stations collect grain ** less than 12 yuan catty!
However, due to the stable decline of corn in Northeast China, the lack of continuous downward trend of corn in North China, after all, the sentiment of grain farmers to threh and sell grain has gradually weakened, and the transfer of grain sources in Northeast China will also be reduced, and the local corn circulation has gradually narrowed, and the pressure has gradually decreased!
On the demand side, due to the Northeast grain storage or will be concentrated into 4.5 million tons of corn, superimposed, the domestic corn is at a low level, the downstream market mentality has become stronger, and some grain merchants have the mentality of hoarding goods at low pricesAlthough, the mainstream feed and deep processing enterprises into the market to build a warehouse is more cautious, but, into January, with the Spring Festival date approaching, corn purchase and sales demand will also rebound sharply, therefore, at this stage, the domestic corn market has entered the bottoming cycle, the change in the rhythm of purchase and sales or will show a trend of adjustment, however, the trend is gradually stronger!
To sum up, based on the market long and short game, approaching New Year's Day, the soybean meal market downstream stocking demand has been launched, the corn market in the grain storage rotation increases, which will also drive the enthusiasm of the channel and enterprise library construction, I personally believe that corn and soybean meal or will usher in the "inflection point", * or have a strong trend, however, due to the high level of soybean meal inventory, corn grassroots surplus grain is sufficient, it is expected that the headwind is difficult to turn around, **space or will be limited!
Approaching New Year's Day, corn and soybean meal suddenly met the "inflection point", what happened?Food prices should be reversed against the wind?What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet, the content is for reference only!