The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for nearly a decade, and the standoff between the two sides in the eastern region and on the Crimean peninsula has been tugging at the global nerves. As Russia's superiority on the battlefield becomes increasingly apparent, the possibility of peace talks and the direction of war have become the focus of attention of the international community. However, the current situation is still fraught with uncertainty and danger, and it is far from the time to say who will win and who will lose. This article will analyze the prospects for peace in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict from three aspects: Russia's terms for peace talks, Ukraine's postponed plan for the recovery of Crimea, and the United States' 2025 Ukraine**.
On the day that Putin announced his candidacy for a fifth re-election in March 2023, Russia made conditions for peace talks with Ukraine. The Russian side said that lasting peace in Ukraine can only be achieved if Western countries stop providing ** assistance to Ukraine and if Ukraine ** recognizes the status quo in Crimea and the Donbas region. The Russian side also said that although it is open to peace talks, it currently lacks the willingness of Ukraine or the West to negotiate.
This statement by Russia not only shows the intention of appeasing Europe in terms of timing, but also responds to the United States ** Biden. In a previous speech, Biden called Russia "the biggest threat in the world" and pledged to continue to support Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is worth noting that France plays an important mediating role in the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, and Russia has obvious expectations for French mediation. In an interview with France, Russian Minister Sergei Lavrov called France "the most independent country in Europe" and hoped that France would play a greater role in the negotiations of the "Normandy Quartet" (Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany).
Russia also stressed that Ukraine must be denazified and will not allow the existence of an "aggressive Nazi state" on its borders in order to avoid a threat to Russia and its neighbors. The Russian side accuses Ukraine of conniving at far-right forces, allowing them to operate in the Ukrainian army and even participate in battles. The Russian side also pointed out that Ukraine's ineffective repression of the Nazis led to the spread of anti-Semitism and xenophobia.
The Russian side also made it clear that it does not accept the "inter-Korean" model for resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, that is, the deployment of US troops on the borders of Ukraine in exchange for concessions from Russia. The Russian side believes that this model is not in the interests of Ukraine and is not conducive to regional stability. Russia also warned that if the United States deploys nuclear ** in Ukraine, it will trigger a strong reaction from Russia and may even lead to the outbreak of nuclear war.
Ukraine's new defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said after taking office in April 2023 that Ukraine was preparing to occupy Crimea in 2024. He also said that the Ukrainian army is ready for everything and is only waiting for Zelensky's orders. However, Ukraine** has previously repeatedly postponed the recovery of Crimea and seems to have once again cast doubt on the achievement of this goal.
Ukraine** has not changed the core conditions of the peace talks in public, including the restoration of the 1991 borders, the payment of war reparations and the trial of war criminals. This statement may be an indirect response to Russia's conditions for peace talks, indicating Ukraine's unwillingness to compromise on territorial issues. In an interview with the United States, Zelensky said that Ukraine would not give up Crimea and would not accept the autonomy of the Donbas region. He also called on Western countries to continue to impose sanctions and pressure on Russia to force it to withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine's public statement may be a sign of loyalty to the United States, but in the current war, American decisions will have a decisive impact on the overall situation. The United States is Ukraine's most important ally and Russia's biggest adversary. The position of the United States on the Ukraine issue will affect the consistency of Western countries, and it will also affect Russia's strategy. After taking office, Biden has taken a tough stance against Russia, not only increasing military and economic aid to Ukraine, but also imposing a new round of sanctions on Russia. Biden also said that the United States will work with NATO allies to defend security and stability in Europe.
Wall Street ** published a report in May 2023 entitled "Ukraine prepares for ** Crimea in 2025", citing the analysis of US think tanks and the fact that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba in an interview with Wall Street ** also confirmed that Ukraine is preparing for a new ** and defensive operation. He said that the Ukrainian army has deployed a large number of troops and ** in the eastern regions and on the Crimean peninsula, including tanks, rocket artillery and drones. He also said that Ukraine has received support from the United States and other Western countries, including the provision of intelligence, training and equipment. He warned that if Russia does not agree to peace talks, Ukraine will do whatever it takes to regain lost territory.
However, in reality, Ukraine seems to be more defensive, strengthening the defenses of front-line areas and territories, as well as building fortifications along the borders. In an interview with our correspondent, a senior ** of the Ukrainian military said that Ukraine's current priority is to prevent further Russian aggression, not to launch **. He also said that Ukraine's military strength is still not enough to compete with Russia and that more time and resources are needed to prepare.
At present, the situation between Russia and Ukraine is complex and delicate, and whether the war will end abruptly, whether it will escalate further, or whether it will usher in peace talks is still full of uncertainties. Although the two sides have expressed their stance on the terms of the peace talks, real negotiations will take time, and the conflict is likely to persist for a long time. We look forward to an early end to the conflict, but the reality may be more complex.