Click "Follow" to receive more exciting content, did you know?In 2023, the GDP of the United States could exceed $28 trillion, a record high. This means AmericanEconomyIt will be more than twice the size of China, more than four times the size of Japan, and more than eight times the size of India. This is a shocking number and a worrying reality. AmericanEconomyHow strong is it?AmericanEconomyHow fast is it growing?AmericanEconomyHow big is the advantage?However, AmericanEconomyIs prosperity really smooth sailing?AmericanEconomyIs development really unstoppable?AmericanEconomyIs the status really unbreakable?Perhaps, next year, AmericanEconomyThere will be a big reversal, and the reason for all this may lie with the United States itself.
AmericanEconomyThe growth, while staggering, is built on an unstable foundation and relies heavily on:Debtand stimulus policies. As of March 2023, the United StatesFederal**Debthas exceeded 30 trillion dollars, which is equivalent toU.S. GDPof 107%;And totalDebtIt is more than 90 trillion dollars, which is equivalent toU.S. GDPof 321%. These massiveDebtMainly due to the response to the new crown epidemic andEconomyThe crisis introduced the fiscal stimulus package andCurrencyEasing policy. Between 2020 and 2023 alone, the United States implemented 6Economystimulus package, totaling 75 trillion dollars, accounting for the United StatesGross Domestic Productof 27%. At the same time, the Fed has also loosened massivelyCurrencypolicy to reduce the federal funds rate to 0-025% to purchase $120 billion in Treasury bills and mortgage guarantees** (MBS) per month.
However, over-relianceDebtand stimulus come with huge risks. AmericanDebthas exceeded the limits of its capacity,Debt crisisIt's already inevitable. In addition, the effect of stimulus measures has also shown a marginal decreasing trend, and stimulus withdrawal has become imperative.
AmericanEconomyGrowth has been rapid, but it has also been accompanied by rising inflation and inflated bubbles. Inflation means:Price levelPersistent**, while a bubble is a phenomenon in which an asset** is much higher than its own value.
AmericanInflation rateIt has risen to 54%, a record in 2008EconomyNew post-crisis highs. The main causes of inflation include imbalances between supply and demand, raw materials*** andCurrencyover-hairing, etc. The danger of inflation is that it erodes America's purchasing power, reduces America's competitiveness, and increases America'sDebtburden, as well as weakening the credit of the United States, etc.
And the bubble in the United States is mainly manifested in **, the housing market and cryptoCurrencyand other fields. **Index hits all-time high, but withEconomyFundamentalsIt is overestimated compared to corporate earnings. There has been a crazy ** in the housing market, which is irrational with income levels and population growth. EncryptionCurrencyThe market is full of speculation and volatility, and it is volatile compared to legal regulation and social acceptance.
The outbreak of inflation and bubbles will have an impact on the United StatesEconomycaused adverse shocks and could trigger oneEconomyCrisis.
AmericanEconomyWhile growth is strong, its sustainability cannot be ignored, and uncertainty is increasing next year. On the one hand,DebtThe level exceeds the capacity,Debt crisisInevitable. On the other hand, the effect of stimulus policies is diminishing, and it is imperative that stimulus be withdrawn.
AmericanEconomyGrowth faces the twin threats of inflation and bubbles, both of which are likely to erupt and burst. Inflation has exploded above target and inflation expectations have spiraled out of control. The explosion of the bubble lies in the fact that the asset ** is detached from its intrinsic value, and market confidence is shaken.
To sum up, AmericanEconomyGrowth is unsustainable, and there may be a major reversal next year, all of which may be due to the fragility of the United States itselfEconomyUnderlying and existential risks.
The United States, as the largest in the worldEconomybody, itsEconomyThe growth is in the spotlight. However, we cannot ignore the United StatesEconomyThe instability of growth and the risks that exist. DebtThe level of unsustainability and the diminishing effect of stimulus will be in the United StatesEconomyA huge obstacle to growth. The threat of inflation and bubbles also makes the United StatesEconomyThe outlook is even more uncertain.
From a personal point of view, I think the United States needs to strengthen structural reforms, pushEconomyofSustainability。ReduceDebtlevel, control finances andCurrencythe degree of policy stimulus and measures to address the risk of inflation and bubbles. In addition, the U.S. should focus on investmentThe real economyto increase productivity and competitiveness to promoteEconomylong-term growth.
In general, AmericanEconomyWhile the growth is strong, there are some factors to worry about. DebtToo high, diminishing stimulus effect, inflation and the threat of bubbles, etc., can be causedEconomyThere is a reversal. Therefore, the United States needs to be vigilant and actively respond to these risks to ensure:EconomyofSustainability