(1) RMB suddenly**
In a continuous trend, the yuan suddenly appeared**, with the largest drop of more than 500 points this week. This raises questions about the imminent reversal of the renminbi's trend. However, we should note that in the past few weeks, the increase in the yuan has gradually decreased, which seems to indicate that the momentum of the yuan is gradually decreasing. Therefore, this ** may just be a normal adjustment after a large **.
And it should be noted that this week's ** does not mean that the trend of the yuan will necessarily reverse. Just after the first three days of the week, the yuan appeared again** against the dollar, with an amplitude of 176 points. This suggests that the RMB's movement against the US dollar is still volatile and will be affected by a variety of uncertainties in the market in the short term.
(2) The proportion of US dollar payments increased
On the other hand, the latest data released by SWIFT shows that the proportion of US dollar payments is significantly higher than half a year ago. Despite the efforts of countries around the world to de-dollarize, the position of the dollar seems to be getting stronger. Among them, the proportion of US dollar payments reached 47 in October this year25%, although there has been a slight fluctuation in the past two months, it has increased significantly compared with half a year ago. It is worth noting that this increase is mainly due to the decline in the share of the euro, which once approached the US dollar, but now only 2336%。
But this does not mean that de-dollarization has failed, it is important to understand that SWIFT counts only a part of global monetary payments. As more and more countries use their own currencies to make payments bilaterally**, and other payment systems continue to expand, SWIFT counts only a portion of these currency payments. In addition, China's digital yuan is becoming more and more widely used, which is also promoting the use of the yuan in the international environment. Therefore, although the proportion of RMB payments has decreased slightly, we can still see the potential and prospects of the RMB.
(1) Reasons for exchange rate fluctuations
The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is affected by a variety of factors. First of all, changes in risk appetite and investor sentiment in the international market will have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. Economic or political instability in any country can trigger risk aversion, leading to capital outflows, which in turn affect the exchange rate of the renminbi. Secondly, the relationship between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market and cross-border capital flows will also have an impact on the RMB exchange rate. Finally, macroeconomic policy adjustments and the release of economic data may also cause the market to pay attention to and react to the trend of the RMB.
This RMB** may be due to some short-term uncertainties, such as the upcoming meeting of the US Federal Reserve System. Despite the fact that the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again, there are still fears of surprises. Moreover, changes in the market's expectations for the Fed's future interest rates will also affect the market's mentality, resulting in inevitable fluctuations in the exchange rate market.
(2) The outlook for the trend of the RMB against the US dollar
In terms of the long-term trend of the renminbi against the dollar, the decisive factor lies in the economic performance of the two countries. At present, China's economy is improving, and Caixin's manufacturing and services PMI data have both entered expansion territory and exceeded the key point of 50. This shows that our economy is growing and growing. Although we are going through a phase of switching economic momentum, our domestic demand growth has become an even more important driver. Although this shift will lead to economic volatility, the RMB is expected to continue to be in the medium to long term**.
It should be noted that the movement of the dollar does not depend only on China, but also on the global economy. At present, the world's major economies are facing many challenges and uncertainties, including frictions, financial risks and geopolitical tensions. These factors will not only affect the movement of the renminbi against the US dollar, but also the exchange rates of other currencies.
The exchange rate trend of the renminbi has always attracted much attention, not only because it is closely related to economic development, but also because of the changes in the global economic pattern and the improvement of its international status. Judging from the latest data, although there have been some fluctuations in the trend of the RMB, it has generally maintained a stable trend. This is not only an affirmation of China's economic development, but also a recognition of the internationalization of the RMB.
In the future, China should continue to promote financial reform and opening up, enhance the transparency and competitiveness of the financial market, improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, and enhance the international status of the RMB. At the same time, we must also maintain stable economic development, enhance the attractiveness of the domestic market, and promote the growth of domestic demand. Only by doing our own thing well can we grasp the opportunities in the changes in the global economic pattern and promote the internationalization process of the RMB.
In general, the exchange rate trend of the renminbi is affected by a variety of factors, including the domestic and foreign economic situation, market expectations and the international financial environment. We should not overfocus on short-term fluctuations, but on long-term trends. The internationalization of the renminbi is a gradual process that requires sustained efforts and stable economic development as a foundation. Only by maintaining determination in the transformation of the global economic system can we gradually enhance the status of the renminbi in the international monetary system and achieve true internationalization.